탄소흡수원 증진 종합계획 수립을 위한 기초 연구

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(1)C2013-35 | 2013. 12.. 탄소흡수원 증진 종합계획 수립을 위한 기초 연구 민 이 석 구 김 박. 경 요 현 자 명 소. 택 한 덕 춘 은 희. 연 구 위 원 부연구위원 선임연구위원 위촉전문연구원 위촉연구원 위촉연구조원.

(2) 연구 담당 민경택 이요한 석현덕 구자춘 김명은 박소희. 연구위원 부연구위원 선임연구위원 위촉전문연구원 위촉연구원 위촉연구조원. 연구 총괄, 제1장, 제3-5장 집필 제2-10장 집필 제1장, 제2장, 제5장 집필 제3-8장 집필 제3장 집필 AHP 분석을 위한 설문조사.

(3) 머 리 말. 최근 들어 기후변화로 인해 세계 곳곳에서 이전에 경험하지 못했던 다양한 위기가 발생하고 있다. 기후변화 대응은 현재 인류가 당면한 중요한 과제가 되었다. 이러한 문제를 인식하고 지구적 차원에서 해결방안을 모색하기 위해 서 기후변화협약이 채택되었고, 이를 위한 세계적인 노력이 여전히 명확한 해결 방안을 제시하고 있지 못한 실정이다.. 1992년 브라질 리우에 지속되고 있다. 그러나. 산림은 유엔(UN)이 인정한 유일한 탄소흡수원으로 대기 중의 이산화탄소를 흡수. 함으로써 온실가스를 감축할 수 있다. 산림 탄소흡수원 확충은 기후변화 대응을 위. 한 중요한 수단이 된다. 또한 신규 조림과 산림 경영 개선 등 산림 탄소흡수원 증진 사업을 통해 생태계 보전, 수자원 함양, 대기정화, 토사유출 방지 등의 다양한 공익 적 기능을 제공하기도 한다.. 이 보고서는 산림 탄소흡수원 증진 종합계획 수립을 위한 기초 연구를 수행한 결 과이다. 먼저, 미국, 일본 등 주요 선진국들의 탄소흡수원 증진 정책을 알아보고, 다. ·. 음으로 산림을 이용한 탄소흡수원 유지 증대를 위한 핵심 전략 및 실천 방안을 제시 하였다. 이 때, 국내 사업 뿐 아니라 앞으로 잠재가능성이 높은 해외 조림 및. REDD+. 사업의 타당성 및 효과에 대해서도 분석하였다. 마지막으로 산림 탄소상쇄제도 도입. 및 활성화 방안과 기반 구축에 관하여 연구하였다. 이 연구 결과는 산림 탄소흡수원 을 효과적으로 확충할 수 있는 방안을 제시하고, 기후변화에 대응하는 국가 주요 전 략 수립에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.. 이 연구의 원활한 수행을 위해 자료와 자문을 주신 산림청 담당 공무원과 토론에 참여해 준 산림탄소 협의체 관계자들께 감사의 말씀을 드린다.. 2013. 12. 한국농촌경제연구원장 최 세 균.

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(5) i 요. 약. 근대 산업화로 인해 화석연료의 사용이 크게 증가하였고, 이로 인해 대기 중의 온. 실가스 증가의 영향으로 기후 변화 문제가 대두되기 시작하였다. 이에 대한 세계적. 1992년 기후변화협약이 채택되었고 본격적인 온실가스 감축을 위 한 노력이 시작되었다. 기후변화협약에서 산림의 중요성이 부각된 것은 1997년 제3 차 당사국 총회에서 교토의정서를 채택하는 과정에서 토지이용, 토지이용변화, 임업 분야를 유일한 온실가스 흡수원으로 인정하였기 때문이다. 산림을 통한 온실가스 흡 수는 다른 산업에서 적용하는 배출량 감축사업에 비해 제약이 적다. 또한 미래의 불 확실성에 대한 변동이 적고, 일정 수준의 흡수량을 지속적으로 확보할 수 있다는 장 점이 있다. 이 외에도 산림을 통한 탄소흡수원 확충은 조림과 산림경영 개선을 통해 생태계 보전, 수자원 함양, 대기정화, 토사유출 방지 등의 다양한 공익적 기능을 제 공한다. 인 대응 방안으로. 산림청은 기후변화에 능동적으로 대응하고 저탄소 사회구현에 기여하기 위하여. 「탄소흡수원 유지 및 증진에 관한 법률」을 제정하여 시행하고 있다. 그리고 동법 제5조에서는 탄소흡수원의 유지 및 증진에 관한 정책목표와 기본방향을 정하는 탄. ·. 소흡수원 증진 종합계획을 5년마다 수립 시행하도록 규정하고 있다. 이에 따라 산림 부문의 기후변화 대응 및 적응에 대한 계획인 탄소흡수원 증진 종합계획의 수립이 시급히 추진되어야 한다. 이 연구에서는 탄소흡수원 증진 종합계획 수립을 위한 기 초연구를 수행하는 것을 목적으로 한다.. 산림을 이용한 탄소흡수원 유지 및 증대 방안으로는 크게 다섯 가지로 구분할 수. ·. 있다. 첫째, 신규조림 재조림 및 효율적인 산림경영을 통하여 탄소흡수원을 확충할 수 있다. 둘째, 건축이나 토목공사의 원료로 이용되는 목제품을 확대하여 탄소고정. 을 늘릴 수 있다. 셋째, 산림 바이오매스 이용을 확대하여 화석연료 사용을 줄임으로. ·. 써 탄소 배출을 줄일 수 있다. 넷째, 산지 전용을 억제하고 산불 병해충 등과 같은 산림재해를 막음으로써 탄소흡수원을 유지할 수 있다. 마지막으로, 해외 조림 및. REDD+. 사업을 통해서 해외탄소배출권을 확보할 수 있다.. 이 연구에서는 탄소흡수원 증진 종합계획 수립을 위한 기초 연구로서 이러한 다섯 가지 방안에 대해서 구체적인 전략 및 실천방안을 제시하였다. 또한 전문가 설문조. 사를 통해 사업별 타당성을 검토하고 우선순위를 책정하였다. 조사 결과 5대 기본목 표에 있어서는 국내 산림 탄소흡수원 확충이 가장 중요한 것으로 나타났고, 다음으.

(6) ii 로 바이오매스 에너지 이용 확대, 목제품 이용 확대, 산지전용 억제 및 산림황폐화. 방지, 해외 산림탄소배출권 확보 순으로 나타났다. 핵심전략에 있어서는 산림경영방 식 및 시업체계 개선, 바이오매스 에너지 이용 저변 확대, 목제품 사용 확대, 산지전 용 억제,. REDD+. 사업 참여 확대가 상대적으로 중요하게 평가되었다.. 이 연구에서 제시한 산림 탄소흡수원 확충 방안을 이행함으로써 향후 5년간 우리. 나라 산림의 이산화탄소 흡수 역량이 크게 증대할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 산림. 88만톤을 저감함으로써 자동차 약 11만대가 연 간 배출하는 온실가스 배출량을 추가적으로 흡수할 수 있다. 산림 바이오매스 에너 지 이용 확대를 통해서는 향후 5년간 원유 65만 toe를 대체하여 4.7억불 상당의 원유 수입 비용을 절감할 수 있다. 또한 국산 원목의 제재목 이용 확대를 통해서 향후 5년 간 320만 이산화탄소톤을 감축할 수 있다. 탄소흡수원 확충을 통한 이산화탄소. 탄소흡수원 증진 종합계획 수립을 위해 산림 탄소흡수원 증대 방안 이외에도 이를 실천하기 위한 기반이 조성되어야 한다. 국내 탄소상쇄제도가 시작단계에 있기 때문 에 산림 부문의 탄소상쇄제도에 대한 체계적인 기반 조성이 중요하다. 또한 국내 산 림 탄소흡수원을 증대하기 위한 신품종개발, 고효율 산림바이오에너지 개발, 산물 수집 비용 개선 등과 같은 실용적인 연구개발이 이루어져야 한다..

(7) iii. ABSTRACT. Preliminary Study for Establishing a Forest Carbon Sink Enhancement Plan Due to morden industrialization, the use of fossil fuels has significantly increased. Thereby, climate change began to be severe under the influence of the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In response, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992 and full-scale efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions began. UNFCCC highlighted the importance of forests as a unique source of carbon sink in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, adopting the process of land use, land use change and forestry, at the third conference of the parties. Forests can absorb greenhouse gases additionally through the application of carbon offset projects, which are less constrained than projects in other industries. Also, there is a little variation for the future uncertainty, while securing a certain amount of absorption continuously. In addition, the expansion of forest carbon sinks through afforestation and forest management can improve ecosystem conservation, water resource enhancement, clean air, and soil erosion prevention, which can provide a variety of public interests. Maintaining and increasing the retention of forest carbon sinks can be divided into five categories. First, afforestation/reforestation and improved forest management can expand carbon sinks. Second, expanding the use of wood products as raw materials can increase carbon sequestration. Third, expanding the use of forest biomass energy through reducing the use of fossil fuels can reduce carbon emissions. Fourth, preventing deforestation and degradation from forest fire and pest disasters can maintain the retention of carbon sinks. Finally, afforestation/reforestation and REDD + projects allow to obtain carbon credits abroad. As a preliminary research on a comprehensive plan for the promotion of carbon sinks, we suggest specific strategies and action plans for these five measures. In addition, a survey was conducted by experts to examine the feasibility and development, in order to provide information on the priorities of those strategies and plans. As results, among five strategies, the expansion of domestic forest carbon sink is the most important one, followed by expanding the use of woody biomass energy, expanding the use of wood products, preventing deforestation and forest degradation, and obtaining carbon credits through afforestation/reforestation and REDD+ projects abroad in order. Domestic forests as a carbon sink have greatly increased the capability of absorbing carbon dioxide over the next five years by implementing key strategies and action plans suggested in this study. The expansion of forest carbon sinks can reduce 880,000 tCO2, that is about the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from 110,000.

(8) iv cars a year. The expansion of forest biomass energy use over the next five years can replace 650,000 toe (crude oil) that is the amount of $4.7 billion. In addition, through the expansion of domestic use of harvested wood products like lumber over the next five years, 3.2 million tons of carbon dioxide can be reduced. In addition to ways to increase the domestic forest carbon sinks, it is important to develop the infrastructure of forest carbon offset programs for action. Domestic forest carbon offset schemes need to be established systematically in the beginning. Also, R&D has a critical role in forest carbon sink enhancement to improve the capability of forest carbon sink by developing new seeds, highly-efficient forest bioenergy sources, technology of saving byproduct-gathering costs. Researchers: Kyung-Taek Min, Yo-Han Lee, Hyun-Deok Seok, Ja-Choon Koo, Myeong-Eun Kim, So-Hee Park Research Period: 2013. 8. ～ 2013. 12. E-mail address: minkt@krei.re.kr.

(9) v 차. 제1장 서론. 례. ········································································································ 1 연구의 목적 ·········································································································· 3 선행연구 검토 ········································································································ 3 연구범위와 방법 ····································································································· 5 제2장 국내외 여건 및 전망 1. 국제 동향 ················································································································ 8 2. 국내 동향 ·············································································································· 22 제3장 주요 선진국의 기후변화 대응 정책 1. 미국 ······················································································································· 32 2. 캐나다 ···················································································································· 47 3. 유럽 ······················································································································· 53 4. 일본 ······················································································································· 61 5. 호주 ······················································································································· 80 6. 뉴질랜드 ················································································································ 84 제4장 탄소흡수원 유지 및 증진의 기본목표와 방향 1. 기본 목표 ·············································································································· 94 2. 핵심전략 및 실천과제 ························································································· 97 제5장 탄소흡수원 유지 및 증진 방안 1. 목표의 설정 ········································································································ 103 2. 핵심전략과 실천과제 ······················································································· 106 3. 우선순위 도출 ···································································································· 132 제6장 산림 탄소 상쇄제도 마련 1. 산림탄소상쇄제도 운영 방안 ············································································ 136 1. 2. 3. 4.. 연구의 필요성.

(10) vi. ········································································ 138 산림탄소상쇄제도 참여 주체별 역할 및 참여 가능 사업 ····························· 142 제7장 연구·개발 확대 1. 개념과 목적 ········································································································ 148 2. 산림의 탄소흡수원 증진과 관련한 연구·개발 ················································ 150 3. 전문 인력 양성 ··································································································· 156 제8장 탄소흡수원 유지·증진 정책의 교육·홍보 및 재원조달 등 이행체계 구축 1. 교육 ····················································································································· 161 2. 홍보 ····················································································································· 163 3. 재원조달 ·············································································································· 163 4. 이행체계 ·············································································································· 164 제9장 탄소흡수원 유지 및 증진 정책의 효과 분석 1. 산림의 탄소흡수원 확충 ···················································································· 167 2. 바이오에너지를 이용한 화석연료 대체 ··························································· 168 3. 수확된 목재(HWP) 이용 활성화를 통한 목재자급률 증대 ··························· 170 4. 산지 전용 억제 및 산림황폐화 방지 ······························································· 171 5. 해외조림 및 REDD+를 통한 탄소배출권 확보 ·············································· 172 제10장 요약 및 결론 ······························································································ 173 2. 3.. 산림탄소상쇄제도 활성화 방안. 부록 부록 참고. 1. AHP 분석을 통한 실천과제 우선순위 도출 ·········································· 178 2. 연차별 투자계획 ······················································································· 186 문헌 ················································································································· 187.

(11) vii 표 차 례. 제2장 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표. 2-1. 기후변화협약 당사국총회별 주요 결과 ································································ 9 2-2. 교토의정서 주요내용 ····························································································· 10 2-3. 1, 2차 협약 기간의 교토의정서 주요 내용 비교 ·············································· 11 2-4. 세계 주요 탄소시장 거래량 및 거래액 현황(2011년 현재) ······························ 17 2-5. 2011년과 2012년의 산림 탄소배출권 거래량, 거래액, 가격 비교 ··················· 20 2-6. 과거 산림기본계획 목표와 주요성과 ·································································· 24 2-7. 제5차 산림기본계획 변경 ····················································································· 25 2-8. 국내 에너지 가격 추이 ························································································· 27 2-9. 유관 법령 및 내용 ································································································ 28 2-10. 산림 탄소상쇄사업 시범사업 현황(2012년 말 기준) ······································· 29 2-11. 미래유망기술 분류기준에 따른 산림분야 주요 기술·개발 분야 ···················· 29 2-12. 산림바이오매스에너지 생산 및 보급용량 ························································· 30 2-13. PEST 분석 결과 종합 ·························································································· 31. 제3장 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표. 3-1. 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 3-5. 3-6. 3-7. 3-8. 3-9. 3-10. 3-11. 3-12. 3-13.. ····················································································· 35 토지전용 매트릭스 1982-1997 ············································································· 36 탄소흡수원을 확충하고 온실가스배출을 저감하는 토지 관리 실천 방안 ······ 38 산림흡수원 확충을 위한 정책 도구와 주요 특징 ············································· 42 2002 Farm Bill과 연계된 미 농무부(USDA) 지원 프로그램 ····························· 43 2010년 주별 탄소 경매 결과 ··············································································· 46 캐나다와 전체 한대림의 탄소 저장량 ································································ 47 산림 탄소 기준 및 프로토콜 개발을 위한 핵심 개념 ······································ 52 유럽의 기후변화 저감에 영향을 미치는 산림 정책 ·········································· 55 일본 국내 크레딧의 인증상황 ·········································································· 65 J-VER 인증상황 ·································································································· 66 J-크레딧 인정 산림관련활동 ············································································· 69 주택 1호당 탄소저장량과 재료제조시 이산화탄소배출량 ····························· 73 미국 산림의 소유권 구성.

(12) viii 표 표 표 표 표 표. 3-14. CFI 사업 구분 ···································································································· 83 3-15. PFSI와 ETS 비교 ······························································································· 86 3-16. 산림분야 참여자 ································································································ 87 3-17. 관련 조직 및 역할 ····························································································· 88 3-18. 산림탄소 관련 재정 현황 ··················································································· 91 3-19. 산림 관련 프로그램 비교 ··················································································· 92. 제5장 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표. 5-1. 2020년 국가 온실가스 총 배출량과 산림부문 흡수 목표 ······························ 103 5-2. 산림 탄소흡수원 증진을 위한 실천과제별 목표 설정 결과 ··························· 105 5-3. 산림 탄소흡수원 확충의 성과목표 ···································································· 108 5-4. 수확된 목제품 (HWP)의 반감기에 대한 국제 기준 ········································ 110 5-5. 주요 자재의 가공시 온실가스 배출량 ······························································ 110 5-6. 목제품 이용증대의 성과목표 ·············································································· 112 5-7. 산림 바이오매스 이용증대의 성과목표 ····························································· 114 5-8. 산지 전용 억제 및 산림황폐화 방지의 성과목표 ············································ 116 5-9. 해외 산림 탄소배출권 확보의 성과목표 ··························································· 119 5-10. 지역별·투자기업별 해외조림투자 실적(1993～2012) ······································ 120 5-11. REDD+ 사업대상지 선정 기준 ········································································· 126 5-12. REDD+ 방법론의 비교 ······················································································ 131 5-13. 평가기준의 가중치 계측 결과 ·········································································· 132 5-14. 계층별 가중치 계측 결과 ················································································· 133. 제6장 표 표. 6-1. 6-2.. 제7장 표 표 표 표 표. 7-1. 7-2. 7-3. 7-4. 7-5.. ···································································· 143 사업 주체별 참여 가능 사업 유형 ···································································· 144 산림탄소상쇄제도 각 주체별 역할. ······················································································· 149 공공 부문과 민간 부문에의 기술개발 ······························································ 151 현재까지 국내에서 탄소흡수원 확충과 연관된 특허 등록 내용 ··················· 152 산림과학기술연구의 대분류와 중분류 ······························································· 153 기후변화 특성화대학원 지정 현황 ···································································· 157 기술개발 영역 및 예시.

(13) ix 표 표. 7-6. 7-7.. 제8장 표 표. 8-1. 8-2.. 제9장 표 표 표 표 표 표 표 표. 9-1. 9-2. 9-3. 9-4. 9-5. 9-6. 9-7. 9-8.. ······································································ 157 탄소흡수원 특성화 대학원 교과목(안) ······························································ 159 기후변화협약 협동과정 커리큘럼. ······ 162 재원 조달 방안 ···································································································· 164 탄소흡수원 유지 및 증진 정책에 대한 교육훈련 대상자 및 교육 내용. ································ 168 산림탄소 흡수원 확충의 사회적·환경적 효과 ·················································· 168 바이오에너지를 통한 화석연료 대체효과 계산 방법 ······································ 169 바이오에너지를 이용한 화석연료 대체의 사회적·환경적 효과 ····················· 169 목조주택과 토목시설의 목재 대체시 이산화탄소 감축 효과 ························· 170 수확된 목제품(HWP) 이용 활성화의 사회적·환경적 효과 ····························· 171 산지전용 억제 및 산림황폐화 방지의 사회적·환경적 효과 ··························· 171 해외조림 및 REDD+를 통한 탄소배출권 확보 사업 효과 ····························· 172 산림의 탄소흡수원 확충을 통한 이산화탄소 감축 효과.