기후변화 적응정책 이행의 효과성 제고 방안

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(1)연구보고서 2013-18. 기후변화 적응정책 이행의 효과성 제고 방안 Measures to Enhance the Effectiveness of Climate Change Adaptation Policies. 명수정, 심창섭, 정휘철, 황선훈.

(2) 연구진 연구책임자. 명수정 (한국환경정책․평가연구원 연구위원). 참여연구원. 심창섭 (한국환경정책․평가연구원 부연구위원) 정휘철 (한국환경정책․평가연구원 부연구위원) 황선훈 (한국환경정책․평가연구원 연구원). 산학연정 연구자문위원 김종환 (한국환경산업기술원 미래전략실 실장) 나태준 (연세대학교 행정학과 교수) 문태훈 (중앙대학교 도시 및 지역계획학과 교수) 박성제 (미래자원연구원 원장) 서흥원 (환경부 기후변화협력과 과장) 안병옥 (기후변화행동연구소 소장) 이병국 (한국환경정책․평가연구원 선임연구위원) 이창훈 (한국환경정책․평가연구원 연구위원) 정우현 (한국환경정책․평가연구원 부연구위원) ⓒ 2013 한국환경정책 ․ 평가연구원. 발행인. 이병욱. 발행처. 한국환경정책․평가연구원 서울특별시 은평구 진흥로 215 (우편번호) 122-706 전화 02)380-7777 팩스 02)380-7799 http://www.kei.re.kr. 인쇄. 2013년 10월 26일. 발행. 2013년 10월 31일. 출판등록 제17-254호 ISBN. 978-89-8464-818-0 93530. 값 7,000원.

(3) 서 언 최근 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 전 지구적으로 기후변화 대응에 대한 많은 보고와 경고가 나타나고 있습니다. 지금까지 기후변화에 대한 대응은 주로 온실가스 감축에 초점을 맞춘 기후변화 완화에 주력하여 왔으나, 기후변화로 인한 피해가 점차 커짐에 따라 기후변화 완화뿐만 아니라 적응의 중요성이 부각되고 있습니다. 올해는 폭설과 혹한으로 시작하였으며 지난여름은 폭염으로 인한 피해가 특히 큰 해로 국가차원에서의 기후변화 적응이 시급함을 실감하게 하였습니다. 우리나라는 기후변화 적응의 시급성에 맞추어 국가차원의 기후변화 적응대책을 수립 하여 기후변화 적응을 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 저탄소 녹색성장 기본법에 의거하여 2010년 수립된 국가적응대책은 적응대책 수립 이전의 관련 계획에 비해 크게 성장하였으 며, 외형적으로 체계를 갖추고 있었습니다. 그러나 아직까지 우리나라는 적응정책 수립 과 이행의 초기 단계로 국민들이 체감할 수 있는 실효성은 기대에 못 미친다고 할 수 있습니다. 이에 본 연구는 우리나라의 현행 기후변화 적응대책과 선진국의 적응대책 수립 및 이행사례를 조사하고, 우리나라 기후변화 적응대책의 효과성을 분석하여 적응정 책 이행의 효과성을 제고하는 방안을 모색하였습니다. 본 과제를 책임 맡아 수행한 명수정 박사를 비롯하여 참여 연구진, 그리고 설문 참여와 면담 등으로 본 과제에 많은 도움을 주신 부처 관계자와 지자체 관계자 및 국내외 전문가 들 그리고 기후변화 적응 관련 이해당사자들의 협조와 조언에 깊은 감사를 표합니다.. 2013년 10월 한국환경정책․평가연구원 원장 이 병 욱.

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(5) 국문 요약 인류의 산업 활동으로 인해 대기 중에 축적되는 온실가스 배출 증가는 전 세계적으로 평균 기온의 상승뿐만 아니라 홍수와 가뭄 및 폭염 등의 자연재해의 발생 빈도와 강도를 증가시켜 이상 극한기후로 인한 피해가 급증하고 있다. 이에 선진국에서는 국가 기후변 화 적응전략과 대책을 수립하는 등 국가차원에서 기후변화 적응을 위해 노력하고 있으며 우리나라도 2010년 범정부적 차원에서 국가 기후변화 적응대책(2011-2015)을 발표하 고 기후변화 적응을 위해 노력하고 있다. 우리나라의 기후변화 적응대책은 아직까지는 정책 수립과 이행의 초기단계로서 아직까지 실질적인 적응의 실효성은 기대에 못 미치는 실정이다. 또한 기후변화 적응정책을 뒷받침하는 관련 법적근거의 미흡 등으로 인하여 적응대책을 효과적으로 추진하는데 어려움이 있다고 할 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 기후변 화 적응대책 이행의 현황을 분석하고, 효과적인 적응대책 추진에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하여 국가 적응대책의 실효성을 제고하는 방안을 도출하고자 하였다.. 본 연구는 먼저, 우리나라 적응정책의 체계를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 2000년대 초반부 터 시작된 우리나라 기후변화 적응정책의 연혁을 개관하였고, 현행 기후변화 적응대책의 추진체계와 법제도 및 기후변화 적응대책의 구조 등을 분석하였다. 우리나라의 국가적응 대책은 저탄소 녹색성장 기본법 제48조 제4항에 의해 수립․이행하고 있는 국가 기후변화 적응대책과 국가 적응대책 세부계획이 있으며, 이는 87개 세부과제와 이를 구성하고 있는 261개의 사업 및 하위 단계의 세부사업 625개로 구성되어 있다. 다음으로는 일반적인 정책이행의 접근방법과 정책이행에 영향을 미치는 요인을 검토 하고, 이를 바탕으로 기후변화 적응정책 이행의 효과성 분석을 위한 방법론을 개발하였 다. 적응정책의 이행 효과성 분석을 위해 관련 전문가를 통해 우리나라 기후변화 적응대 책 세부사업의 내용과 성격을 바탕으로 적응효과성을 분석하였고, 상위계획인 적응대책 과 하위계획인 세부시행계획의 부합성을 분석하였다. 또, 적응대책 이행의 효과성에.

(6) 영향을 미치는 요인을 파악하고자 적응대책 관계자를 대상으로 실시한 설문조사와 면담 및 관련 자료조사를 통해 적응정책 이행주체, 적응정책 이행 자원, 적응정책의 평가체계 와 이행점검 실태를 조사․분석하였다. 적응주체의 설문 결과는 적응과정에 투입되는 인력 부족과 조직체계 등이 개선되어야 할 필요가 있음을 보여 주었다. 또한 적응대책과 세부시 행계획이 모두 부합하지는 않는 것으로 나타났다. 전문가에 의한 적응 효과성 평가에 의하 면 우리나라의 적응정책은 적응에 대한 직접적인 효과보다는 간접적인 효과를 가진 정책이 더 많았으며, 일부 부문의 경우 상대적으로 적응효과가 높았으나, 부문의 특성 등으로 인해 그렇지 않은 경우도 있었다. 셋째로는 주요 선진국에서의 적응전략과 적응계획의 수립과 추진 체계 및 운영현황 등에 대해 조사하였다. 그 결과 우리나라는 적응전략의 구체화가 필요하며, 영향평가와 취약성평가와 같은 적응계획에 필요한 정보 제공과 부문 및 부처 간 소통이 더 강화될 필요가 있음을 알 수 있었다. 그리고 적응정책의 우선순위를 고려하여 효과적으로 재원 을 분배할 필요도 있음을 알 수 있었다. 마지막으로 이러한 분석 결과를 통해 본 연구는 적응정책의 효과성을 저해하는 요인으 로 적응정책의 내용, 거버넌스, 적응주체, 예산, 적응정책 평가, 법제도를 도출하였다. 도출된 요인 등을 바탕으로 우리나라 적응정책 이행의 효과성을 제고하는 방안을 제시하 였는데, 본 연구가 제시하는 적응정책의 제고방안은 첫째, 국가 기후변화 적응전략의 구체화, 둘째, 적응정책 추진 및 운영체계의 개선, 셋째, 적응정책 이행평가체계의 개선, 넷째, 효과성 담보를 위한 법제도화이다. 다음은 각 방안별 내용이다.. 첫째, 구체적인 국가 기후변화 적응전략을 수립하고, 전략적 중점과제를 선정하여 한정된 자원을 효과적으로 활용해야 한다. 또한 각 대책의 목표를 구체화하여 적응정책 의 이행 및 결과에 대한 모니터링과 평가가 이루어질 수 있는 기반을 마련해야 한다. 둘째, 적응정책의 추진과 운영체계를 개선해야 한다. 현재 우리나라는 총괄부처가 강력한 조정권한을 가지고 있지 않는데, 이러한 점을 감안할 때 적응정책의 목표를 구현 하기 위한 조정적 방법과 관리가 필요하다. 또한 적응협의회와 실무위원회등을 활성화하.

(7) 여 범부처 간의 소통과 협업을 도모해야 한다. 그리고 적응에 필요한 예산확보와 정보 공유체계 구축 및 적응대책 시스템의 운영으로 정보공유와 의사전달 체계를 개선할 필요 가 있다. 셋째, 적응정책 이행평가체계를 개선해야 한다. 현재 우리나라는 적응을 맡고 있는 각 부처의 자체평가 방식으로 평가가 이루어지고 있다. 따라서 담당부처의 적응정책 이행 에 대한 모니터링과 평가에 대한 의지와 평가의 실효성을 높이기 위해 개선책을 고안할 필요가 있다. 개선 방안으로 적응실무위원회가 개별부처의 자체평가서를 종합평가하는 방식과 담당 부처가 국가 기후변화 적응정책을 관장하는 기후변화 적응위원회(가칭)에 보고하는 방식 등 효과적인 방안을 고안할 필요가 있다. 넷째, 적응정책의 효과성 담보를 위한 법제도화가 필요하다. 신설 혹은 보완이 필요한 내용으로 기후변화 적응의 정의, 목적, 기본원칙, 협의회 운영과 구성, 적응정책 추진상 황 점검 및 평가, 그리고 적응 기금에 관한 규정 등이 필요하다.. 본 연구는 적응정책 시행 초기단계에서 오는 한계를 극복하여 우리나라 기후변화 적응 정책 이행의 효과성 제고를 위한 전반적인 적응정책 틀을 개선하는 데 기여할 것으로 기대된다. 그러나 본 연구는 단기간에 우리나라 적응정책 전반을 조사·분석한 과제로서 이행 효과성 분석 방법론 개발과 관련 자료 수집 등에 한계가 있어 개별 적응사업의 적응효과 등은 분석하지 못하였다. 향후 개별 기후변화 적응사업의 적응효과와 효율성을 분석하는 연구가 뒤따라야 할 것이며, 국가와 지역사회의 정책 수립에 있어 기후변화 적응을 주류화 하는 연구와 적응정책의 모니터링과 평가 등에 대한 후속 연구가 추진되어 야 할 것이다.. 주제어: 기후변화 적응정책, 적응 효과성, 적응정책 이행, 모니터링과 평가.

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(9) ∣차 례∣ 제1장·서론 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·1 1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성 ·············································································· 1 2. 연구의 범위 및 방법 ················································································· 3 가. 연구의 범위 및 내용 ··········································································· 3 나. 연구 방법 ······························································································ 4 제2장·우리나라 기후변화 적응정책과 국가 기후변화 적응대책 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·6 1. 기후변화 적응과 적응정책 ········································································ 6 가. 기후변화와 기후변화 적응 ·································································· 6 나. 기후변화 적응정책 ··············································································· 8 2. 우리나라의 기후변화 적응정책 동향 ······················································ 9 가. 개관 ········································································································ 9 나. 비법정 기후변화 적응정책 ································································ 10 다. 법정 기후변화 적응정책 ···································································· 13 3. 국가 기후변화 적응대책의 성격 및 체계 ············································· 15 가. 국가 기후변화 적응대책의 성격 ······················································ 15 나. 기후변화 적응대책 법적 체계분석 ··················································· 17 다. 기후변화 적응대책 관련 법 조항의 주요 내용 ······························ 19 라. 기후변화 적응대책 추진체계 분석 ·················································· 22 4. 소결 ··········································································································· 24. 제3장·선진국의 기후변화 적응정책 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·25 1. 유럽연합 ···································································································· 25.

(10) 가. 개관 ·································································································· 25 나. 영국 ·································································································· 29 다. 프랑스 ······························································································ 35 라. 독일 ·································································································· 40 마. 핀란드 ······························································································ 44 2. 스위스 ······································································································· 48 가. 개관 ····································································································· 48 나. 기후변화 적응정책 ············································································· 48 다. 요약 및 시사점 ··················································································· 52 3. 일본 ··········································································································· 52 가. 개관 ······································································································ 52 나. 기후변화 적응대책 ············································································· 53 다. 요약 및 시사점 ··················································································· 55 4. 선진국 사례 종합정리 및 시사점 ·························································· 56. 제4장·기후변화 적응정책 이행의 효과성 분석 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·62 1. 정책 이행의 이론적 논의 및 분석방법 ················································ 62 가. 정책이행의 의의 ················································································· 62 나. 성공적인 정책이행 ············································································· 64 다. 국가 기후변화 적응정책 이행의 영향요인 ····································· 65 2. 국가 기후변화 적응정책의 효과성 분석 방법 ····································· 66 3. 국가 기후변화 적응대책 내용 분석 ······················································ 68 가. 세부사업의 적응단계 분류 분석 ······················································ 69 나. 세부사업의 적응 효과성 분석 ···························································· 75 다. 적응대책의 상하위 계획간 부합성 분석 ········································· 82 4. 우리나라 국가 기후변화 적응대책 평가체계 ······································· 87.

(11) 5. 국가 기후변화 적응대책 이행 조직 및 주체 분석 ····························· 90 가. 적응대책 이행 조직 ··········································································· 90 나. 적응대책 이행 주체 ··········································································· 93 6. 국가 기후변화 적응대책 자원 분석 ······················································ 96 가. 적응대책 인적자원 ············································································· 96 나. 적응대책 예산 ···················································································· 97. 제5장·기후변화 적응정책의 효과성 제고 방안 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·102 1. 적응정책의 장애요인 고찰 ···································································· 102 가. 문헌조사를 바탕으로 살펴본 적응정책의 장애요인 ···················· 102 나. 우리나라 국가 기후변화 적응대책 이행의 장애요인 ·················· 107 2. 적응정책 이행의 장애요인 극복을 통한 효과성 제고 ······················ 108 가. 적응정책 내용 ··················································································· 108 나. 거버넌스 ···························································································· 109 다. 적응주체 ····························································································· 112 라. 적응예산 ····························································································· 114 마. 적응정책 평가 ··················································································· 115 바. 법제도 ································································································ 116 3. 기후변화 적응정책 이행의 효과성 제고 방안 ··································· 117 가. 국가 기후변화 적응전략의 구체화 ················································· 119 나. 적응정책 추진 및 운영체계 개선 ·················································· 124 다. 적응정책 모니터링 및 평가 ···························································· 126 라. 효과성 담보를 위한 법제도화 ························································ 130. 제6장·결론 및 제언 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·133 1. 결론 ·········································································································· 133.

(12) 2. 제언 ········································································································· 134. · · · · · · · · · · · ·137 참고문헌 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·. 부록 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·145 부록 I 주요 선진국 적응정책 개관 ·························································· 145 부록 Ⅱ 기후변화 적응대책 관계자 대상 설문지 ··································· 154 부록 Ⅲ 기후변화 적응대책 관계자 설문조사 설문대상자의 통계적 분류 ··· 160 부록 Ⅳ 우리나라의 정책평가 제도 ·························································· 163. Abstract · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·169.

(13) ∣표 차 례∣ <표 2-1> 우리나라 기후변화 적응정책 ······························································ 10 <표 2-2> 환경정책의 유형 구분 ········································································· 16 <표 2-3> 저탄소 녹색성장 기본법에 따른 법정계획 ······································· 18 <표 3-1> 독일 적응이행계획의 적응이행 과제 ················································· 43 <표 3-2> 핀란드 적응전략의 5단계 평가지표 ·················································· 46 <표 3-3> 일본의 적응대책 계획수립 및 실시에 관한 표준절차 ··················· 54 <표 3-4> 지자체의 기후변화 적응에 대한 초동의 5단계 ······························· 55 <표 3-5> 주요 선진국의 적응정책 개관 ···························································· 57 <표 3-6> OECD 가입국의 적응정책 현황 ························································· 58 <표 3-7> 주요 국가별 적응의 부문 ··································································· 60 <표 4-1> 적응대책 효과성의 분석틀 ·································································· 67 <표 4-2> 기후변화 적응대책 세부사업의 적응단계별 분류 결과 ·················· 74 <표 4-3> 적응 효과성 평가지표 및 측정방법 ·················································· 76 <표 4-4> 적응대책 세부사업 사례 ····································································· 82 <표 4-5> 상․하위 계획 간 부합성 분석방안 ····················································· 83 <표 4-6> 2011년 부문별 적응대책 추진현황 ···················································· 89.

(14) ∣그림차례∣ <그림 1-1> 연구 체계 ····························································································· 5 <그림 2-1> 기후변화 적응대책 추진 체계도 ···················································· 23 <그림 3-1> 영국의 적응 프로그램의 개관 ························································ 32 <그림 3-2> 기후변화에 따른 프랑스의 열파의 확장 기간 ····························· 38 <그림 3-3> 스위스의 적응전략 도출 과정 ························································ 50 <그림 3-4> 효과 분석 매트릭스: 기후변화의 영향을 받는 부문 간의 효과 ··· 51 <그림 4-1> 정책의 순환 과정 ············································································· 63 <그림 4-2> 적응과정 ···························································································· 70 <그림 4-3> 기후변화 적응의 단계 ····································································· 71 <그림 4-4> 부문별 세부사업 적응단계 분포 ···················································· 72 <그림 4-5> 적응대책 세부사업의 적응관련성 ·················································· 77 <그림 4-6> 적응대책 세부사업의 부문별 적응 효과성 ··································· 78 <그림 4-7> 적응대책 세부사업의 적응효과 지속기간 ····································· 79 <그림 4-8> 간접적 영향의 세부사업 활용성 ···················································· 80 <그림 4-9> 세부사업 부문별 활용성 ································································· 81 <그림 4-10> 부문별 적응사업의 부합성 분포 ·················································· 85 <그림 4-11> 부문별 세부사업 부합성 ································································ 86 <그림 4-12> 기후변화 적응대책 평가체계 ························································ 87 <그림 4-13> 기후변화에 대한 인식 ···································································· 91 <그림 4-14> 사업의 목표에 대한 인식과 효과 기대성 ··································· 92 <그림 4-15> 적응대책 참여 부처별 적응대책 관련 부서의 개수 ·················· 94 <그림 4-16> 세부과제 담당자의 계속 비율 ······················································ 95 <그림 4-17> 부문별 적응예산 계획 추이(2012년 계획) ·································· 98.