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24 March 2016
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 23 March 2016, rainfall was recorded in all states and territories, with the highest totals in the Top End and northern Queensland.
Despite the recent monsoonal activity bringing heavy rainfall to much of northern Australia, March 2016 rainfall totals remain below average in a number of areas.
Recent rainfall has provided a useful boost to soil moisture levels in a number cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria ahead of the winter planting window.
For the week ending 22 March 2016, maximum temperatures were above average in the Northern Territory, central Queensland and central Western Australia. Minimum temperatures were average to above average across most of Australia.
The latest ‘National Climate Outlook’ released by the Bureau of Meteorology for April to June 2016 indicates that above average rainfall is likely in large areas of southern and central Australia, while below average rainfall is more likely across much of Australia’s tropical north.
The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that rain is expected over parts of Australia, with the highest rainfall totals likely to be recorded across northern Australia and isolated areas of western and eastern Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 130 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 24 March 2016 to 7 201 GL and are at 32 per cent of total capacity.
The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 575 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 18 March 2016, 4 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price: remained relatively unchanged in New South Wales to average 582 cents a kilogram and increased by 3 per cent in Victoria to average 576 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 538 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 18 March 2016, up 4 per cent from the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was up by 3 per cent in New South Wales at 514 cents a kilogram, and up marginally in South Australia to average 486 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator was unchanged at 481 cents a kilogram.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$206 a tonne in the week ending 22 March 2016, compared with US$213 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $227 a tonne in the week ending
22 March 2016, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 23 March 2016, rainfall was recorded in all states and territories. A tropical low brought rainfall to the Top End and northern Queensland at the beginning of the week. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in isolated areas of eastern New South Wales, large areas of eastern and southern Victoria, eastern and northern Queensland, northern South Australia, and large areas of Western Australia, much of Tasmania and across parts of northern and southern Northern Territory. The highest weekly total was 332 millimetres at Abingdon Downs Station in northern Queensland.
Despite the recent monsoonal activity bringing heavy rainfall to much of northern Australia, March rainfall totals remain below average in a number of areas. Meanwhile, recent rainfall has provided a useful boost to soil moisture levels in a number cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria ahead of the winter planting window.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Rainfall for the week ending 23 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/03/2016
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 22 March 2016, maximum temperatures were up to 4 degrees above average in the Northern Territory, central Queensland and central Western Australia. In contrast, maximum temperatures were up to 4 degrees below average across large areas of south-eastern Australia, South Australia and Western Australia.
Minimum temperatures were average to above average across most of Australia for the week ending
22 March 2016. Minimum temperatures were up to 4 degrees above average in areas of southern Queensland, northern South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/03/2016
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/03/2016
4 1.3. National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods.
Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.
The current climate outlooks reflect a combination of a weakening El Niño, very warm Indian Ocean temperatures and warm sea surface temperatures around much of the Australian coast.
El Niño is steadily declining, with models forecasting a return to a neutral pattern in late autumn to early winter. During the breakdown period of the El Niño cycle, warmer days tend to persist over northern and eastern Australia, with warmer nights across much of Australia.
In addition to El Niño, there are widespread warmer than average sea surface temperatures across much of the Indian Ocean, as well as waters surrounding Australia, while waters off the WA coastline are closer to average. The warmer waters are likely to reinforce above average temperatures in coastal regions.
Soil moisture has been relatively low across northern and eastern parts of Australia, particularly in the drought-affected regions. This means there is less evaporative cooling, contributing towards warmer conditions inland.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/
.
The April 2016 rainfall outlook indicates that below average rainfall is more likely across much of northern Australia and parts of eastern Australia. For much of central and southern Australia there is no strong
tendency toward either above or below average rainfall during April (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 24 March 2016).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
April 2016
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The rainfall outlook for late autumn and early winter period (April to June 2016) indicates that above average rainfall is more likely across much of central and southern Australia. In contrast, rainfall during this 3-month period is more likely to be below average across Australia’s tropical north. For the remainder of the country there is no strong tendency toward either above or below average rainfall (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 24 March 2016).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall April to June 2016
The late autumn and early winter (April to June 2016) temperature outlook indicates that maximum
temperatures are more likely to be above average over northern Australia, and southern and eastern coastal regions. However, maximum temperatures are less likely to be above average for central Australia and Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 24 March 2016).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature
April to June 2016
6
The 3-month (April to June 2016) temperature outlook indicates that minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across all of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’,
24 March 2016).
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature
April to June 2016
7 1.4. Rainfall forecast
The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that rain is expected over large parts of Australia, with the highest rainfall totals likely to be recorded across northern Australia and isolated areas of western and eastern Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimetres are forecast for south-western Western Australia, north-eastern New South Wales, western Tasmania, the Cape York Peninsula, and across the Top End. Little or no rainfall is forecast for central Australia, South Australia, western Queensland and north-western New South Wales.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 24 March to 31 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 24/03/2016
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 130 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 24 March 2016 to 7 201 GL and are at 32 per cent of total capacity. This is 9 percentage points or 1 925 GL less than at the same time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 24 March 2016 is shown
above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$206 a tonne in the week ending 22 March 2016, compared with US$213 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) was US$161 a tonne in the week ending 23 March 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) was US$401 a tonne in the week ending 22 March 2016, compared with US$391 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around US66.1 cents a pound in the week ending 23 March 2016, around 1 per cent higher than in the previous week.
Data from China Customs shows the country imported around 586,000 tonnes of raw cotton in the first seven months of 2015-16 (August to July) season, compared with around 1.1 million tonnes imported by the same period in 2014-15.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US 16.3 cents a pound in the week ending 23 March 2016, the highest weekly price in almost one and half years.The previous high was US16.6 cents a pound recorded in the week ending 22 October 2014.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $256 a tonne in the week ending 22 March 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $227 a tonne in the week ending 22 March 2016, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $228 a tonne in the week ending 22 March 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $507 a tonne in the week ending 21 March 2016, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 575 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 18 March 2016, 4 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price: remained relatively unchanged in New South Wales to average 582 cents a kilogram and increased by 3 per cent in Victoria to average 576 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 538 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 18 March 2016, up 4 per cent from the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was up by 3 per cent in New South Wales at 514 cents a kilogram, and up marginally in South Australia to average 486 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator was unchanged at 481 cents a kilogram.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 227 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 17 March 2016, up marginally from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was down less than 1 per cent from the previous week.
Wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 19 March 2016, compared with the previous week. Banana (cavendish), blueberry and avocado (hass) prices rose. Watermelon (seedless) and kiwifruit (hayward) prices fell. Pineapple (smoothleaf), strawberry and apple (royal gala) prices were unchanged.
Wholesale prices of selected vegetable were mixed in the week ending 19 March 2016, compared with the previous week. Tomato (field gourmet) and bean (round, stringless) prices rose. Cauliflower, broccoli and lettuce (iceberg) prices fell. Onion (brown), potato (white, brushed) and pumpkin (grey bulk) prices remained unchanged.10
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Selected domestic crop indicator prices
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3.5. Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
