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23 April 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 22 April 2015 rainfall was recorded across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls restricted to parts of northern and south eastern Australia.
Maximum temperatures were predominantly average across northern and eastern Australia during the week ending 21 April 2015, while minimum temperatures were slightly above average over parts of northern and eastern Australia.
The May 2015 rainfall outlook suggests there is an increased chance of wetter than average conditions across large parts of mainland Australia, while parts of western Tasmania and isolated parts of the tropical north have an increased chance of drier than average conditions.
The rainfall outlook for May to July 2015 indicates wetter than average conditions are more likely across most of mainland Australia
, except for the tropical north where there is an increased chance of drier than average conditions.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates rainfall is likely in south eastern Australia, with isolated lighter falls forecast along much of the Australian coastline.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by
13 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3158 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$234 a tonne in the week ending 21 April 2015, compared with US$246 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 22 April 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 436 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 17 April 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 439 cents a kilogram and fell by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 444 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell across all states in the week
ending 17 April 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator price declined by 3
per cent in both New South Wales and Victoria to average 528 cents a kilogram and 518 cents a
kilogram (dressed weight), respectively. The indicator price also fell by 3 per cent in South
Australia to average 513 cents a kilogram and by 1 per cent in Western Australia to average 500
cents a kilogram.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 22 April 2015 rainfall was recorded across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls restricted to parts of northern and south eastern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded across northern and central Western Australia, the Top End of Northern Territory, isolated areas of eastern and southern Queensland, large areas of New South Wales, parts of eastern and northern Victoria, much of southern South Australia and western Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was
441 millimetres at Maitland, near Newcastle in New South Wales.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 22 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/04/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were predominantly average across northern and eastern Australia during the week ending 21 April 2015. Parts of western and southern Australia recorded below average temperatures, with parts of central Western Australia recording temperatures between 6 and 10 degrees below average for this time of year.
Minimum temperatures were slightly above average over parts of northern and eastern Australia during the week ending 21 April 2015. Meanwhile parts of southern Western Australia and southern South Australia recorded slightly below average minimum temperatures for this time of year.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/04/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/04/2015
4 1.3. National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature climate outlook presented below, show the likelihood, as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median weather for the upcoming three months.
Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/
.
The Bureau of Meteorology notes that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) surrounding Australia and in the eastern half of the Indian Ocean are warmer than normal. These warmer waters are likely to be influencing the rainfall and minimum temperature outlooks, with both outlooks indicating a high chance of the season being wetter and warmer, respectively. With above-average rainfall favoured, more cloud is also likely to be present, which aids in trapping heat at night.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook model POAMA suggests El Niño conditions are likely to develop in the coming one to two months. For eastern Australia, the development of more El Niño–like conditions, and thus a bias towards drier weather, may be opposing the influence from the Indian Ocean.
The tropical north officially enters its dry season at the start of May. For the May to July period, large parts of the northern regions typically have a median rainfall less than 10mm for the 3 months. The May 2015 rainfall outlook suggests that there is an increased chance of wetter than average conditions across large areas of mainland Australia. Parts of western Tasmania and isolated parts of the tropical north have an increased chance of drier than average rainfall for May 2015 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 23 April 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
May 2015
5
The rainfall outlook for May to July 2015 indicates wetter than average conditions are more likely across most of mainland Australia, except for the tropical north where there is an increased chance of drier than average conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 23 April 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall May to July 2015
The three-month temperature outlook indicates warmer than average maximum temperatures are likely over the tropical north, southern Victoria, Tasmania and far south-west of Western Australia. Across parts of western and central Western Australia, South Australia, extending into western New South Wales, days are likely to be cooler than normal. This is likely a result of the increased chance of a wetter season over the area.
(Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 23 April 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature
May to July 2015
6
Minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal for most of Australia. Chances are greater than 70 per cent over most of Australia, except for parts of Western Australia.
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature
May to July 2015
7 1.4. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates rainfall is likely in south east Australia, with isolated lighter falls forecast along much of the Australian coastline. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely in parts of eastern Victoria, southern New South Wales and much of Tasmania.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 23 to 30 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/04/2015
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 13 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3158 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 23 April 2015 is shown above.
The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$234 a tonne in the week ending 21 April 2015, compared with US$246 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$174 a tonne in the week ending 22 April 2015, compared with US$173 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$405 a tonne in the week ending 21 April 2015, compared with US$399 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US70.5 cents a pound in the week ending 22 April 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US12.9 cents a pound in the week ending 22 April 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 22 April 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $297 a tonne in the week ending 22 April 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $286 a tonne in the week ending 22 April 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $468 a tonne in the week ending 22 April 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 436 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 17 April 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 439 cents a kilogram and fell by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 444 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell across all states in the week ending 17 April 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator price declined by 3 per cent in both New South Wales and Victoria to average 528 cents a kilogram and 518 cents a kilogram (dressed weight), respectively. The indicator price also fell by 3 per cent in South Australia to average 513 cents a kilogram and by 1 per cent in Western Australia to average 500 cents a kilogram.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1130 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 16 April 2015, compared with 1106 cents a kilogram in the week ending 1 April 2015. The total number of bales offered at auction was 13 per cent higher.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruits were mixed in the week ending 18 April 2015, compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), watermelon (seedless), blueberry and strawberry were higher, while the prices of pineapple (smoothleaf) and avocado (hass) were lower.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 18 April 2015, compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of cauliflower and bean (round, stringless) were higher, while the prices of tomato (field gourmet), broccoli and lettuce (iceberg) were lower.10
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
