Summary of key issues •

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10 November 2016

The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues

• During the week ending 9 November 2016, rainfall was mainly in parts of northern and eastern Australia, and western Tasmania.

• Maximum temperatures were generally close to average across much of central and eastern

Australia for the week ending 8 November 2016, while minimum temperatures were below average across much of south-eastern Australia.

• According to the Australian Plague Locust Commission, the outlook for the remainder of 2016 is for a moderate increase in adult population levels to widespread medium densities in western New South Wales, parts of western Queensland, and north-eastern parts of South Australia.

• The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is mainly expected across eastern and far northern parts of Australia, with rainfall exceeding 15 millimetres forecast for large parts of New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania.

• The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation neutral, while the negative Indian Ocean Dipole has weakened over the past fortnight and is likely to be nearing its end.

• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 248 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 10 November 2016 to 18 952 GL, and are at 84 per cent of total capacity—the highest in over 3 years.

• In New South Wales, general security water allocations increased in the Lower Namoi and Gwydir Valley systems.

• The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder rose by 20 per cent from the previous auction price, reflecting a reduction in product offered by Fonterra New Zealand.

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1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

For the week ending 9 November 2016, rainfall was mainly in parts of northern and eastern Australia, and western Tasmania. Rainfall totals exceeding 15 millimetres were recorded in parts of central and north-eastern Queensland, central and northern parts of the Northern Territory, central and northern Western Australia, and western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 222 millimetres at Mount Read in Tasmania.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Rainfall for the week ending 9 November 2016

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 9/11/2016

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 8 November 2016, maximum temperatures were close to average across much central and eastern Australia. Parts of Western Australia recorded maximum temperatures between 4°C and 6°C above average for this time of year. In contrast, parts of western Victoria and Tasmania recorded maximum temperatures between 2°C and 4°C below average for this time of year.

Minimum temperatures ranged between 2°C and 6°C below average in much of south eastern Australia for the week ending 8 November 2016. In contrast, minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in parts of Western Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 8 November 2016

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 9/11/2016 Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 8 November 2016

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high- resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

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1.3. Australian Plague Locust

The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) produces a monthly Locust Bulletin during the periods of locust activity (spring, summer and autumn). The bulletin gives regional summaries of the locust situation and weather events of potential significance for locust development. It also provides a forecast of likely developments for the next two months (or from autumn to spring) for the

Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera), spur-throated locust (Austracris guttulosa), and the migratory locust (Locusta migratoria).

According to the APLC, locust breeding during autumn resulted in high density nymphs developing in small areas of Far Southwest New South Wales and the northern Flinders Ranges in South Australia.

Breeding by the earlier population in August in Southwest and part of Northwest Queensland gave rise to a widespread low density nymph population in those regions and adjacent parts of northern South Australia in October. Fledging of those nymphs in late October produced medium density adults in Southwest Queensland and localised higher density adults and small swarms in the

Arrabury area. Adult numbers were generally low in other regions, and low density spring generation nymphs were recorded in Far West New South Wales, Bulloo Shire and the Central West, South Central and Central Highlands regions of Queensland.

The outlook for the remainder of 2016 is for a moderate increase in adult population levels to widespread medium densities in Far West and Far Southwest New South Wales, Southwest and part of Northwest Queensland, and parts of the Far North, Western Agricultural and Northeast regions of South Australia. Localised high densities are possible where high density nymphs developed, but no significant swarm formation is likely. Habitat conditions remain favourable for localised breeding in several regions during November, which could produce a nymph generation during December.

For further information, go to http://www.agriculture.gov.au/pests-diseases-weeds/locusts/

Australian Plague Locust Distribution 1 October to 31 October 2016

Densities estimated for areas of locust habitat, based on current surveys and reports from current and previous month.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources Issued: 03/11/2016

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1.4. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is mainly expected across eastern and far northern parts of Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding 15 millimetres are forecast for eastern and central New South Wales and the north-west of the Northern Territory and much of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 10 to 17 November 2016

1.5. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains at neutral ENSO levels. While waters in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than average, most international climate models suggest that sea surface

temperatures will not reach La Niña thresholds and will remain within the ENSO-neutral range until the end of the 2016–17 summer. Only one of eight models surveyed suggests the Pacific may briefly reach weak La Niña levels towards the end of 2016. A La Niña developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980.

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures to Australia's north suggest that some La Niña-like impacts may occur, even if an event does not fully develop.

In the Indian Ocean, the negative IOD event that has been in place since late May has weakened over the past fortnight. The monsoon trough has begun to move southward over the IOD region, which changes the wind patterns. This change means the negative IOD event is near its end, and this is supported by model outlooks. Both a negative IOD and La Niña typically contribute to increased rainfall in spring for eastern and central Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’

8 November 2016).

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2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 248 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 10 November 2016 to 18 952 GL, and are at 84 per cent of total capacity—the highest in over 3 years. This water storage level is 39 percentage points or 8 722 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 10 November 2016 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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2.2. Water allocations

The current water allocations for the 2016–17 water trading season for licence holders in the New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.

• In New South Wales, general security allocations increased in the Lower Namoi and Gwydir Valley systems.

Allocations at 10 November 2016 (%) 3 November 2016 (%)

New South Wales General

security High

security General

security High security

NSW Murray Valley * 72 97 72 97

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley * 76 95 76 95

NSW Lower Darling * 100 100 100 100

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley * 100 100 100 100

NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100

NSW Lachlan Valley * 124 100 124 100

NSW Lower Namoi * 117.37 100 101.22 100

NSW Upper Namoi * 100 100 100 100

NSW Gwydir Valley * 69.01 100 61.44 100

NSW Border Rivers * 100^a / 73.1^b 100 100^a / 73.1^b 100

NSW Peel Valley 100 100 100 100

Victoria Low

reliability * High

reliability * Low

reliability * High reliability *

Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 100

Victoria Goulburn 0 100 0 100

Victoria Campaspe 100 100 100 100

Victoria Loddon 0 100 0 100

Victoria Bullarook 100 100 100 100

Victoria Broken 61 100 61 100

South Australia High

security High

security

South Australia Murray Valley 100 100

*Carryover water may also be available

a General security A class. b General security B class

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3. Commodities

3.1. Market focus

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder rose by 20 per cent from the previous auction price to US$3 317 a tonne on 1 November 2016. This is the highest average price for whole milk powder at the GDT auction since 1 July 2014 and the largest percentage rise in a single trading event since April 2010. This rise reflects a reduction in product offered at the auction by Fonterra New Zealand due to wet weather conditions. The volume of whole milk powder was down by 3 000 tonnes from the same period a year ago.

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Indicator Week

ended Unit Latest

price Price week

prior Weekly change

Price 12 months prior

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices ^a

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Selected domestic crop indicator prices

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3.5. Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

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3.6. Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices – week ended 5 November 2016

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4. Data attribution

Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

• Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

• Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

• Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

• Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

• Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/

Water

New South Wales

• New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

• New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register: http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/water-licensing/registers

Queensland

• Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

• Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia

• SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report

• South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria

• Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

• Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

• The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton and lambs

• Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs

• Australian Pork Limited: www.australianpork.com.au Canola

• Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy

• Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/