Summary of key issues •

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24 November 2016

The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues

• During the week ending 23 November 2016, rainfall was recorded in parts of northern, central and south-eastern Australia.

• Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally close to average across much of Australia for the week ending 22 November 2016. The main exception was south-eastern Australia where maximum and minimum temperatures were above average.

• The latest ‘National Climate Outlook’ released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that drier than average conditions are more likely for eastern Australia for the 2016–2017 summer. Wetter than average conditions are more likely across a small area of north- western Australia. For the remainder of the country the chances of a wetter or drier than average summer are roughly equal.

• The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall exceeding 15 millimetres is forecast for parts of New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole has returned to neutral levels, after being in a negative phase since May 2016. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.

• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 87 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 24 November 2016 to 19 287 GL, and are at 85 per cent of total capacity—the highest in nearly 4 years.

• In New South Wales, general security B class water allocations increased in the Border Rivers system.

• The Australian dollar fell 3 per cent against the US dollar, as the US dollar strengthened following comments from the Federal Reserve Chair that a US rate rise was increasingly likely.

• Australian cattle slaughter has risen in November to be 14 per cent above levels observed

in October. This has placed downward pressure on saleyard prices in recent weeks.

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1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

For the week ending 23 November 2016, rainfall was mainly recorded in parts of northern, central and south-eastern Australia. Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded across scattered areas of all states and territories, with the highest totals in eastern Victoria and the Top End of the

Northern Territory (see map below). The highest recorded weekly total was 247 millimetres at Middle Point Rangers, near Darwin in the Northern Territory.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Rainfall for the week ending 23 November 2016

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/11/2016

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 22 November 2016, maximum and minimum temperatures were close to average across much of Australia. The main exception was south-eastern Australia where maximum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average, and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average for this time of year (see maps below).

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 November 2016

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/11/2016 Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 November 2016

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high- resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

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1.3. National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has ended, which means its influence on Australian climate has reduced. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, but continues to show some weak La Niña-like attributes, including warmer than average waters to the north and west of Australia. This may be contributing to some wetter conditions in parts of north-western Australia.

In the shorter term, a northerly shift in the average position of westerly winds and high pressure systems (also known as the "Southern Annular Mode", or "SAM") is forecast for December. When this northward shift (a negative SAM phase) occurs in summer, this typically means much of Australia becomes drier and warmer than usual.

December 2016 is likely to be drier than average across most of mainland Australia. The outlook indicates a low to moderate chance of exceeding the median rainfall, with the lowest chances in the eastern states (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 24 November 2016).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2016

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5 The rainfall outlook for the summer (December 2016 to February 2017) indicates that wetter than average conditions are more likely for parts of north-western Western Australia. In contrast, drier than average conditions are far more likely in south-eastern Queensland, much of eastern New South Wales and eastern Victoria. For the remainder of the country, the chances of a wetter or drier three months are roughly equal. Historical outlook accuracy for this period is moderate to high for most of Western Australia, and moderate over the eastern mainland. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 24 November 2016).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2016 to February 2017

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6 The temperature outlook for summer (December 2016 to February 2017) indicates maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above the median for most of eastern Australia, with very high chances in south-eastern Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and eastern Victoria. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures are unlikely to exceed the median in parts of south- western Western Australia and Tasmania. Historical outlook accuracy for this time of year is

moderate for most of the country, with the exception of central regions and western Tasmania, where accuracy is low (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 24 November 2016).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2016 to February 2017

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature December 2016 to February 2017

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1.4. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall exceeding 15 millimetres is forecast for parts of New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania (see map below).

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 24 November to 1 December 2016

1.5. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update

The Indian Ocean Dipole has returned to neutral levels, after being in a negative phase since May 2016. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral levels as the monsoon trough transitions to the southern hemisphere. This shift changes the wind patterns over the tropical Indian Ocean, breaking down the typical IOD circulation. The strong negative IOD event contributed to Australia recording its wettest May–September period in 117 years of record. The July IOD value was equal- strongest for at least 50 years.

In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are within neutral bounds. Climate models predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average, but within the ENSO–neutral range, until the end of the 2016–17 summer. Only one of the eight models surveyed by the Bureau of

Meteorology indicates La Niña for the summer months. A La Niña developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’

22 November 2016).

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2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 87 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 24 November 2016 to 19 287 GL, and are at 85 per cent of total capacity—the highest in nearly 4 years. This water storage level is 41 percentage points or 9 224 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 24 November 2016 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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2.2. Water allocations

The current water allocations for the 2016–17 water trading season for licence holders in the New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.

• In New South Wales, general security B class allocations increased in the Border Rivers system.

Allocations at 24 November 2016 (%) 17 November 2016 (%)

New South Wales General

security High

security General

security High security

NSW Murray Valley * 100 100 100 100

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley * 100 100 100 100

NSW Lower Darling * 100 100 100 100

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley * 100 100 100 100

NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100

NSW Lachlan Valley * 124 100 124 100

NSW Lower Namoi * 117.37 100 117.37 100

NSW Upper Namoi * 100 100 100 100

NSW Gwydir Valley * 69.01 100 69.01 100

NSW Border Rivers * 100^a / 79.5^b 100 100^a / 73.1^b 100

NSW Peel Valley 100 100 100 100

Victoria Low

reliability * High

reliability * Low

reliability * High reliability *

Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 100

Victoria Goulburn 0 100 0 100

Victoria Campaspe 100 100 100 100

Victoria Loddon 0 100 0 100

Victoria Bullarook 100 100 100 100

Victoria Broken 100 100 100 100

South Australia High

security High

security

South Australia Murray Valley 100 100

*Carryover water may also be available

a General security A class. b General security B class

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3. Commodities

3.1. Market focus

Exchange rate

The Australian dollar fell 3 per cent against the US dollar over the week ended 23 November 2016 to 74 US cents, the lowest since June. The US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated in comments to Congress late last week that a rate rise was increasingly likely. The Australian dollar has fallen 4 per cent against the US dollar since the US Presidential election.

Domestic Beef

Relatively strong increases in Australian cattle slaughter have been recorded in recent weeks. In the eastern states adult slaughter totalled 136 134 head for the week ending 18 November 2016, 14 per cent higher than in the same week in October. The increase in the supply of cattle for

slaughter has placed downward pressure on saleyard prices. Queensland trade steer prices averaged 621 cents a kilogram (carcase weight) in the first three weeks of November, 5 per cent below the average for the same period in October of 654 cents a kilogram.

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Indicator Week

ended Unit Latest

price Price week

prior Weekly change

Price 12 months prior

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices ^a

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Selected domestic crop indicator prices

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3.5. Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

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3.6. Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices – week ended 19 November 2016

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4. Data attribution

Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

• Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

• Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

• Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

• Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

• Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/

Water

New South Wales

• New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

• New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

• Available water determinations register: http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/water-licensing/registers Queensland

• Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

• Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia

• SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report

• South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria

• Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

• Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

• The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton and lambs

• Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs

• Australian Pork Limited: www.australianpork.com.au Canola

• Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy

• Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/