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28 May 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 27 May 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across parts of Western Australia, parts of coastal and southern Queensland, northern and eastern New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and isolated areas of Australia’s southern coastline.
Maximum and minimum temperatures were average over much of Australia during the week ending 26 May 2015. Maximum temperatures were below average in a broad band across Australia, extending across Western Australia, through central Australia, and into New South Wales and Queensland.
The winter 2015 rainfall outlook suggests there is an increased chance of wetter than average conditions across parts of Western Australia, while parts of eastern Australia have an increased chance of drier than average conditions.
The Bureau of Meteorology has advised that the El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen. All international climate models surveyed indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to warm up further during the coming months.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely in a band across central Australia, parts of coastal and inland Northern Territory, and parts of south eastern Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 66 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3221 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$242 a tonne in the week ending 26 May 2015, compared with US$237 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $328 a tonne in the week ending 27 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The New South Wales young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 538 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 22 May 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 519 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose in most states in the week ending 22 May 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest increase was in Western Australia where the indicator price rose by 3 per cent to 529 cents a kilogram (dressed weight).
In New South Wales and Victoria the indicator price increased by 1 per cent to average 579
cents a kilogram and 584 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price declined
by 2 per cent in South Australia to average 532 cents a kilogram.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 27 May 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across parts of Western Australia, parts of coastal and southern Queensland, northern and eastern New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and isolated areas of Australia’s southern coastline. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in central Western Australia, isolated areas of coastal and southern Queensland, parts of northern and eastern New South Wales and the southern coast of Victoria. The highest recorded rainfall total was 105 millimetres at Weelarrana, in central Western Australia.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 27 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 27/05/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were average over much of Australia during the week ending 26 May 2015. Maximum temperatures were below average in a broad band across Australia, extending across Western Australia, through central Australia, and into New South Wales and Queensland. Temperatures were slightly above average in isolated areas of northern Australia. Some parts in central Western Australia recorded temperatures between 4 and 8 degrees below average for this time of year.
While minimum temperatures were largely average over much of Australia, there were isolated areas in most states and territories which recorded slightly below average minimum temperatures during the week ending 26 May 2015. Central Western Australia recorded temperatures slightly above average for this time of year.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 27/05/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 27/05/2015
4 1.3. National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature climate outlook presented below, show the likelihood, as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median weather for the upcoming three months.
Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/
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The Bureau of Meteorology notes that both the Pacific and Indian oceans are influencing this outlook. The El Niño in the Pacific (which models indicate will strengthen) is having a drying impact on eastern Australia, while continued warmth in the Indian Ocean, coupled with the El Niño in the Pacific, is tending to enhance rainfall in southern Western Australia. Also Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean remain higher than normal. This pattern of SSTs, coupled with the warm SSTs in the Pacific is tending to enhance rainfall in the southern half of Western Australia. The drying influence of El Niño is impacting on the eastern half of the country.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook model POAMA suggests that the tropical Pacific will continue to warm throughout winter and spring, with the El Niño continuing to strengthen.
Some, but not all, models suggest an increased chance of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event
developing later in 2015. Positive IOD events are typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over southern and central Australia.
The June 2015 rainfall outlook suggests that there is an increased chance of wetter than average conditions across southern Western Australia. Parts of south east Australia has an increased chance of drier than average rainfall for June 2015 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 May 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
June 2015
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The rainfall outlook for winter (June to August 2015) is indicating that drier than average conditions are more likely in southern and inland Queensland, northern and eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and western Tasmania. A dry signal is also evident in the northern tropics, although it is seasonally dry in this region at this time of year. A wetter than average winter is more likely for the southern half of Western Australia. Chances for above average winter totals are close to 50 per cent for the remainder of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 May 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall Winter (June to August 2015)
The winter (June to August 2015) temperature outlook indicates maximum temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average over the tropical north and the eastern half of Australia, particularly in Tasmania. Parts of inland Western Australia may see a cooler season. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 May 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature
Winter (June to August 2015)
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The winter (June to August 2015) temperature outlook indicates minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances for warmer or cooler temperatures are even in parts of central Western Australia and central New South Wales.
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature
Winter (June to August 2015)
7 1.4. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely in a band across central Australia, parts of coastal and inland Northern Territory, and parts of south eastern Australia. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres have been forecast for parts of central Western Australia, central South Australia, coastal and inland Northern Territory, eastern Victoria and much of Tasmania.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 28 May to 4 June 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 27/05/2015
1.5. ENSO Wrap-Up
The Bureau of Meteorology has advised that the El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen.
Oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are both showing a clear El Niño signal. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for nearly two months, supported by warmer than average ocean temperatures below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness along the equator at the International Date Line has increased, and the 90-day SOI has also dropped below −10; indicative of a persistent three-month period of higher atmospheric pressure in the western Pacific.
All international climate models surveyed indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to warm up further during the coming months. All surveyed models indicate that ocean temperatures in the NINO3.4 region of the tropical Pacific will remain above El Niño thresholds through the southern hemisphere winter and at least well into spring. El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, it should be noted that the strength of El Niño doesn't directly relate to the strength of its effects on Australia's climate.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the majority of the Indian Ocean being warmer than average. Of the five international models that monitor the IOD, three suggest a positive IOD event is likely later in 2015. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 66 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3221 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 28 May 2015 is shown above.
The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$242 a tonne in the week ending 26 May 2015, compared with US$237 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$165 a tonne in the week ending 27 May 2015, compared with US$169 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$428 a tonne in the week ending 26 May 2015, compared with US$432 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US71.7 cents a pound in the week ending 27 May 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from the Indian Ministry of Textiles, Indian exports of textiles and garments totalled US$41.4 billion in the 2014-15 season (April to March), compared with US$40.8 billion the previous year.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US12.2 cents a pound in the week ending 27 May 2015, 5 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from China Customs indicates that China imported 2.7 million tonnes of raw sugar in the first 7 months of the 2014–15 season (October to September). This compares with 2.8 million tonnes over the same period a year ago.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1242 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 21 May 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $328 a tonne in the week ending 27 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $289 a tonne in the week ending 27 May 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $282 a tonne in the week ending 27 May 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $472 a tonne in the week ending 27 May 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The New South Wales young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 538 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 22 May 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 519 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose in most states in the week ending 22 May 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest increase was in Western Australia where the indicator price rose by 3 per cent to 529 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). In New South Wales and Victoria the indicator price increased by 1 per cent to average 579 cents a kilogram and 584 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price declined by 2 per cent in South Australia to average 532 cents a kilogram.
The wholesale prices of selected fruits generally fell in the week ending 23 May 2015 compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), blueberry, kiwifruit (hayward) and avocado (hass) were lower while the price of strawberry was higher.
Wholesale prices of selected vegetables generally rose in the week ending 23 May 2015 compared with the previous week.10
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
