Summary of key issues •

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17 November 2016

The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues

• During the week ending 16 November 2016, rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern Australia.

• There were severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia this week. One of the most damaging storms was centred on the Mildura region in north-west Victoria and the Riverland region of South

Australia. Victorian authorities have indicated that at least 450 farms have been affected but the full extent of damage to crops is still unknown.

• Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally close to average across much of Australia for the week ending 15 November 2016.

• According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2016 is likely to be globally the hottest year on record.

• The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall exceeding 15 millimetres is forecast for parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, the Northern Territory and most of Tasmania.

• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 249 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 17 November 2016 to 19 200 GL, and are at 85 per cent of total capacity—the highest in nearly 4 years.

• In New South Wales, general security and high security water allocations increased in the Murray and Murrumbidgee Valleys. In Victoria, low reliability allocations increased in the Broken system.

• The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged 3 per cent lower than in the previous week, which reflects increased production in the South-Central region in Brazil.

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1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

For the week ending 16 November 2016, rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in parts of all the mainland states and most of Tasmania (see map below). The highest recorded weekly total was 264 millimetres at Gray, in eastern Tasmania.

The widespread falls in eastern Australia have delayed winter crop harvesting and summer crop planting.

There were severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia this week. One of the most damaging storms was centred on the Mildura region in north-western Victoria and the Riverland region of South Australia. This storm produced large hailstones and winds in excess of 100 kilometres per hour.

Victorian authorities have indicated that at least 450 farms have been affected but the full extent of damage to crops is still unknown.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Rainfall for the week ending 16 November 2016

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 16/11/2016

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 15 November 2016, maximum temperatures were close to average across much of Australia. The main exceptions were parts of eastern Australia where maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average and parts of southern Australia where maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C below average (see maps below).

Minimum temperatures were generally close to average for most of Australia for the week ending 15 November 2016.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 November 2016

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 16/11/2016 Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 November 2016

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high- resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

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1.3. Global climate

According to the Provisional Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2016 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2016 is likely to be the hottest year on record and set a new high for the third year in a row. The report, published on 14 November, found that global

temperatures for January to September 2016 were approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The WMO report that long-term climate change indicators are also setting new records.

Atmospheric concentrations of major greenhouse gases have reached the highest levels on record and arctic sea ice reached its second lowest level in the satellite record in September 2016.

Global temperature change from pre-industrial period

Source: WMO Provisional Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2016

http://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-status-of-global-climate-2016

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1.4. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall exceeding 15 millimetres is forecast for parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, the Northern Territory and most of Tasmania (see map below).

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 to 24 November 2016

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2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 249 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 17 November 2016 to 19 200 GL, and are at 85 per cent of total capacity—the highest in nearly 4 years. This water storage level is 40 percentage points or 9 008 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 17 November 2016 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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2.2. Water allocations

The current water allocations for the 2016–17 water trading season for licence holders in the New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.

• In New South Wales, general security and high security allocations increased in the Murray and Murrumbidgee Valleys.

• In Victoria, low reliability allocations increased in the Broken system.

Allocations at 17 November 2016 (%) 10 November 2016 (%)

New South Wales General

security High

security General

security High security

NSW Murray Valley * 100 100 72 97

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley * 100 100 76 95

NSW Lower Darling * 100 100 100 100

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley * 100 100 100 100

NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100

NSW Lachlan Valley * 124 100 124 100

NSW Lower Namoi * 117.37 100 117.37 100

NSW Upper Namoi * 100 100 100 100

NSW Gwydir Valley * 69.01 100 69.01 100

NSW Border Rivers * 100^a / 73.1^b 100 100^a / 73.1^b 100

NSW Peel Valley 100 100 100 100

Victoria Low

reliability * High

reliability * Low

reliability * High reliability *

Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 100

Victoria Goulburn 0 100 0 100

Victoria Campaspe 100 100 100 100

Victoria Loddon 0 100 0 100

Victoria Bullarook 100 100 100 100

Victoria Broken 100 100 61 100

South Australia High

security High

security

South Australia Murray Valley 100 100

*Carryover water may also be available

a General security A class. b General security B class

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3. Commodities

3.1. Market focus

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract)

averaged US21.3 cents a pound in the week ending 16 November 2016, 3 per cent lower than in the previous week. This price fall reflects increased production in the South-Central region in Brazil, which produces around 90 per cent of the country’s sugar. Production of sugar rose by 7 per cent in the two weeks to 1 November 2016 to around 32.1 million tonnes, compared to the same period in 2015.

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Indicator Week

ended Unit Latest

price Price week

prior Weekly change

Price 12 months prior

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices ^a

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Selected domestic crop indicator prices

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3.5. Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

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3.6. Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices – week ended 12 November 2016

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4. Data attribution

Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

• Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

• Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

• Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

• Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

• Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/

Water

New South Wales

• New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

• New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register: http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/water-licensing/registers

Queensland

• Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

• Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia

• SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report

• South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria

• Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

• Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

• The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton and lambs

• Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs

• Australian Pork Limited: www.australianpork.com.au Canola

• Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy

• Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/