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5 March 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 4 March 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia.
February 2015 rainfall was below average to average across much of Australia. Above average rainfall was mainly restricted to areas of eastern and northern Australia that were impacted by Tropical Cyclones, Marcia and Lam, and parts of southern Western Australia.
Rainfall deficiencies have increased in extent and severity across southern South Australia, western Victoria and along the west coast of Tasmania for the 8-month period ending February 2015.
Longer term (29-month) rainfall deficiencies have increased in central Queensland, northern New South Wales, western Victoria and adjacent parts of south-east South Australia. Long term rainfall deficiencies are still present in the central coast area of Western Australia.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for February 2015 was mostly above average across south- eastern Australia and below average over much of the rest of the country.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by
242 gigalitres (GL) and are at 44 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2511 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$244 a tonne in the week ending 3 March 2015, compared with US$246 a tonne in the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 443 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 27 February 2015, 5 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by 5 per cent in New South Wales to average 420 cents a kilogram and rose by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 416 cents a kilogram.
Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the
states in the week ending 27 February 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator
price rose in New South Wales by 3 per cent to average 528 cents a kilogram (dressed weight)
and 1 per cent in Victoria to average 555 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price
declined by 2 per cent in South Australia to average 511 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia,
the indicator price remained largely unchanged at an average of 507 cents a kilogram.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 4 March 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia. Rainfalls in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded over large parts of Western Australia, the top half of the Northern Territory, across northern and south east Queensland, north eastern New South Wales and western Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 236 millimetres at Darwin.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 4 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 4/03/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were above average in large parts of eastern Australia during the week ending 3 March 2015. Central Queensland, southern Northern Territory, northern South Australia and northern New South Wales recorded temperatures between 4 and 8 degrees above average for this time of year. The remainder of the country recorded average or slightly below average temperatures.
Minimum temperatures were above average through central Australia during the week ending 3 March 2015.
The remainder of the country recorded average temperatures.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 3 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 4/03/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 3 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 4/03/2015
4 1.3. Monthly and seasonal rainfall
Spatial rainfall percentile analyses are based on historical monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These rainfall percentile maps show how rainfall recorded during that given time period compare with the rainfall recorded for that same given period during the entire historical record (1900 to present). Rainfall percentiles are a way of providing an indication of the spread of data in a data set. To calculate percentiles, the entire rainfall record at certain point is divided into one hundred equal parts. The 5th percentile for February 2015 means that only five percent of Februaries in the entire historical record have recorded a rainfall total that is at or below the value recorded during February 2015. Dark blue areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the entire historical record, and dark red areas are drier.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
February 2015 rainfall was below average to average across much of Australia.Below average rainfall was recorded across much of northern Western Australia, large parts of the Northern Territory, most of Queensland except the east coast and parts of the south, a large part of inland northern New South Wales, much of South Australia extending into border regions of Victoria and across most of western Tasmania. Above average rainfall was mainly restricted to small areas of eastern and northern Australia that were impacted by Tropical Cyclones, Marcia and Lam, and parts of southern Western Australia.
Rainfall percentiles for February 2015
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Summer 2014-15 (December 2014 to February 2015) rainfall was average to well above average across much of Australia. Extremely high rainfall was recorded across a large band extending from northern Australia through to the far south-east of the continent. Meanwhile, severely deficient to well below average rainfall was recorded in parts of Western Australia, South Australia and northern Queensland.
5 Rainfall percentiles for summer 2014-15 (December 2014 to February 2015)
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
6 1.4. Recent soil moisture percentiles
The maps below show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (0 to 0.2 metres) soil moisture and lower layer (0.2 to 1.5 metres) soil moisture during February 2015. These maps show how modelled soil conditions during February 2015 compare with February conditions modelled during the 30 year reference period (1961 to 1990). Dark green areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the 1961-1990 reference period, and dark brown areas are drier.
The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 0.3 metres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.2 metres) is therefore the most appropriate indication of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated events over longer time periods.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for February 2015 was mostly above average across south-eastern Australia and below average over much of the rest of the country. In Western Australia’s cropping regions, relative upper layer soil moisture was variable ranging from extremely low in the south to extremely high in the north.
Across summer cropping regions in Queensland relative upper layer soil moisture was predominantly average to above average, while in northern New South Wales relative upper layer soil moisture was predominantly below average.
Upper layer soil moisture for February 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
Relative lower layer soil moisture for February 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across much of northern and central Australia. Across the central Queensland cropping region relative lower layer soil moisture was largely above average, with largely below average to extremely low relative lower layer soil moisture in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions. Southern New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia show variable relative lower layer soil moisture, although levels tend toward below average. Meanwhile, relative lower layer soil moisture levels remain above average across much of South Australia.
7 Lower layer soil moisture for February 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
8 1.5. Rainfall deficiencies
Compared to the previous drought statement issued on 5 February 2015, the extent and severity of rainfall deficiencies have increased across much of southern South Australia, western Victoria and along the west coast of Tasmania for the 8-month period (July 2014 to February 2015). The area affected by serious deficiencies has also expanded in north-western Victoria and adjacent parts of southern New South Wales.
Severe or serious deficiencies persist across the southern half of Queensland's Cape York Peninsula and across parts of the Pilbara and northern Gascoyne regions of Western Australia. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 4 March 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 July 2014 to 28 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 01/03/2015
The area affected by serious and severe rainfall deficiencies for the 29-month period (October 2012 to February 2015) have increased in central Queensland, northern New South Wales, western Victoria and adjacent parts of south-east South Australia when compared to the previous drought statement issued on 5 February 2015. Deficiencies remain relatively unchanged on the Western Australian coast near Gascoyne (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 4 March 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 October 2012 to 28 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 01/03/2015
9 1.6. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely over parts of western, northern and eastern Australia. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres are expected across the north-west coast of Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory, North Queensland and western Tasmania. Heavy falls over 200 millimetres have been forecast for coastal North Queensland.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 5 to 12 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 4/03/2015
1.7. ENSO Wrap-Up
Over the past fortnight there has been renewed warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to an increase in the chance of an El Niño developing in 2015. As a result, the Bureau of Meteorology has raised the ENSO Tracker status to El Niño WATCH.
The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 to 0.3 degrees over the past fortnight, while monthly sub-surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees above average over a large area for February. This is largely the result of weakened trade winds and tropical surface currents in recent weeks.
Weakened trade winds are forecast to continue, and this may induce further warming. All international climate models surveyed indicate that central tropical Pacific SSTs are likely to remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range, until at least May 2015. However by mid-year, six of the eight models indicate SSTs are likely to exceed El Niño thresholds.
It should be noted that model outlooks made in the first quarter of the year tend to be less reliable than those made at other time, and hence some caution should be exercised (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 3 March 2015).
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 242 gigalitres (GL) and are at 44 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2511 GL less than this time last year.
2.2. Water storages
Changes in regional water storage for February 2015 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graphs below (current at 5 March 2015).
Region
Total capacity
(GL)
Current volume (GL)
Current volume
(%)
Monthly change
(GL)
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change (GL)
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) 22559 9887 44 -979 -4 -2511
Murray-Darling Basin Authority
(MDBA) 9352 4257 43 -510 -5 -1238
Queensland MDB 186 147 79 -16 -8 95
Central Queensland 3154 2840 90 60 2 -100
South-east Queensland 3517 2699 77 84 2 356
New South Wales MDB 13884 3791 27 -690 -5 -1709
Coastal New South Wales 1074 899 84 -9 -1 -77
Victoria MDB 8488 5948 70 -274 -3 -897
Water storages in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria
The blue line indicates the extent of the Murray–Darling Basin. The shaded areas denote the coverage of the individual reporting regions.
11 Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 5 March 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin by state (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$244 a tonne in the week ending 3 March 2015, compared with US$246 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$174 a tonne in the week ending 4 March 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$414 a tonne in the week ending 3 March 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US71.2 cents a pound in the week ending 4 March 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US13.4 cents a pound in the week ending 4 March2015, 6 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from the Indian Sugar Millers Association indicates that India produced around 19.4 million tonnes of sugar (raw equivalent) in the first five months of the 2014–15 season (October to September), around 34 per cent higher than the same period a year ago.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1088 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 26 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 12 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $467 a tonne in the week ending 3 March 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 443 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 27 February 2015, 5 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by 5 per cent in New South Wales to average 420 cents a kilogram and rose by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 416 cents a kilogram.
Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the states in the week ending 27 February 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator price rose in New South Wales by 3 per cent to average 528 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) and 1 per cent in Victoria to average 555 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price declined by 2 per cent in South Australia to average 511 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator price remained largely unchanged at an average of 507 cents a kilogram.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of cheddar cheese was US$3377 a tonne on 3 March 2015, compared with US$3054 a tonne on 17 February 2015. Over the same period, the price of skim milk powder rose by 7 per cent. In contrast, the prices of anhydrous milk fat and whole milk powder fell by 2 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruits were mixed in the week ending 28 February 2015. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf) and blueberry were higher than the previous week while the prices of strawberry and avocado (hass) were lower.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 28 February 2015.The wholesale prices of broccoli, bean (round, stringless) and lettuce (iceberg) were lower than the previous week while the prices of cauliflower and tomato (field gourmet) were higher.
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3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
