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18 February 2016
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 17 February 2016, rainfall was mainly restricted to northern Australia, Tasmania and isolated areas of eastern and southern Australia.
For the week ending 16 February 2016, maximum temperatures were between 2 and 6 degrees above average for this time of year across much of Australia. In contrast, Tasmania, southern South Australia and Victoria recorded below average maximum temperatures.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is most likely in south-east Queensland, Far North Queensland, western Tasmania, northern and southern Western Australia and across the Top End of the Northern Territory.
The 2015-16 El Niño has been steadily declining since its peak in November/December 2015, with most international climate models suggesting a return to ENSO neutral conditions likely during the second quarter of 2016. Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50 per cent have been followed by a neutral year, and 40 per cent have been followed by La Niña.
In New South Wales, general security allocations have increased in the Murray and Murrumbidgee systems. In Victoria, high reliability allocations increased in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe, Loddon, Bullarook and Broken systems.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 160 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 18 February 2016, to 8 007 GL and are at 36 per cent of total capacity.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 590 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 12 February 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price: increased by 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 594 cents a kilogram and increased by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 554 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 531 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 12 February 2016, down 2 per cent from the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price: was down by 4 per cent in New South Wales at 538 cents a kilogram, and down by 5 per cent in South Australia to average 515 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator rose by 7 per cent to average 487 cents a kilogram.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$203 a tonne in the week ending 16 February 2016, compared with US$207 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $254 a tonne in the week ending 17 February 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 17 February 2016, rainfall was mainly restricted to northern Australia, Tasmania and isolated areas of eastern and southern Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded across western Tasmania, northern Queensland, northern Western Australia and the Top End of the Northern Territory. The highest recorded rainfall total was 169 millimetres at Oenpelli Airport, around 200 kilometres east of Darwin, in the tropical north of Australia.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Rainfall for the week ending 17 February 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 17/02/2016
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 16 February 2016 maximum temperatures were between 2 and 6 degrees above average for this time of year across much of Australia. In contrast, Tasmania, southern South Australia and Victoria recorded below average maximum temperatures.
Minimum temperatures were generally average to above average across much of Australia during the week ending 16 February 2016, with some areas across South Australia and southern Queensland recording slightly below average minimum temperatures.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 16 February 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 17/02/2016
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 16 February 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 17/02/2016
4 1.3. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that some rainfall is likely in all states and territories, with the heaviest falls restricted to northern Australia and isolated parts of eastern and central Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres most likely in south-east Queensland, Far North Queensland, western Tasmania, northern and southern Western Australia and across the Top End of the Northern Territory.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 18 to 25 February 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 17/02/2016
1.4. ENSO Wrap-up
The 2015-16 El Niño has been steadily declining since its peak in November/December 2015. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are gradually cooling, while beneath the surface, cooler than average waters are advancing into the eastern Pacific, which is consistent with a declining El Niño. Most international climate models suggest that El Niño conditions will continue to weaken during the autumn months, with a return to ENSO neutral conditions likely during the second quarter of 2016.
Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50 per cent have been followed by a neutral year, and 40 per cent have been followed by La Niña. International climate models suggest neutral is most likely for the second half of the year. However, La Niña in 2016 cannot be ruled out, and a repeat El Niño appears unlikely.
Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events often brings above average rainfall to some—but not all—
parts of Australia in the first half of the year.
The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very warm across the majority of the basin which may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia. The southern hemisphere Indian Ocean remains at record warm levels, with January 2016 adding to the string of record warm months observed since mid-2015.
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 18 February 2016 by 160 gigalitres (GL), to 8 007 GL and are at 36 per cent of total capacity. This is 10 percentage points or 2 363 GL less than at the same time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 18 February 2016 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
6 2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2015–16 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
In New South Wales, general security allocations have increased in the Murray and Murrumbidgee systems.
In Victoria, high reliability allocations increased in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe, Loddon, Bullarook and Broken systems.
Allocations at 18 February 2016 (%) 4 February 2016 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley 23* 97 19* 97
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 36* 95 35* 95
NSW Lower Darling 0* 75 0* 75
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 7* 100 7* 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley 25 100 25 100
NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Upper Namoi 60* 100 60* 100
NSW Gwydir Valley 5.28* 100 5.28* 100
NSW Border Rivers 100 a / 26.56 b 100 100 a / 26.56 b 100
NSW Peel Valley 17* 100 17* 100
Victoria Low
reliability
High reliability
Low reliability
High reliability
Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 98
Victoria Goulburn 0 90 0 87
Victoria Campaspe 0 64 0 62
Victoria Loddon 0 80 0 74
Victoria Bullarook 0 8 0 6
Victoria Broken 0 26 0 25
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$203 a tonne in the week ending 16 February 2016, compared with US$207 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) was US$160 a tonne in the week ending 17 February 2016, compared with US$161 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) was US$400 a tonne in the week ending 16 February 2016, compared with US$406 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around US66 cents a pound in the week ending 16 February 2016, 3 per cent lower than in the previous week.
Data from Cotton Corporation of India shows that cumulative seed cotton arrivals in 2015–16 (August to July) season as mid-February 2016 were around 3.3 million tonnes (lint equivalent), compared with 4.3 million tonnes by the period date in 2014–15.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged around US13.2 cents a pound in the week ending 17 February 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
According to Indian Sugar Milling Association, by mid-February 2016 the country produced 17.3 million tonnes of raw sugar in 2015–16 (October to September) season, around 4 per cent higher than produced by the same period in the previous season.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $254 a tonne in the week ending 17 February 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $275 a tonne in the week ending 17 February 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $236 a tonne in the week ending 17 February 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $533 a tonne in the week ending 15 February 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 590 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 12 February 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price: increased by 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 594 cents a kilogram and increased by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 554 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 531 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 12 February 2016, down 2 per cent from the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price: was down by 4 per cent in New South Wales at 538 cents a kilogram, and down by 5 per cent in South Australia to average 515 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator rose by 7 per cent to average 487 cents a kilogram.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of cheddar cheese fell by 10 per cent to US$2 535 a tonne on 16 February 2016 compared with US$2 807 a tonne on 2 February 2016. Over the same period: the whole milk powder and skim milk powder prices declined by 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, while the anhydrous milk fat price rose by 1 per cent.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 284 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 11 February 2016, up almost 2 per cent on the previous week. The number of bales offered at auction was down 16 per cent on the previous week.
Wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 13 February 2016, compared with the previous week. Wholesale prices for banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf), watermelon (seedless) and avocado (hass) fell. The price of strawberry rose. The prices of blueberry, kiwifruit and apple (royal gala) remained unchanged.
Wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 13 February 2016, compared with the previous week. Prices for tomato (field gourmet), lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) rose, while the prices for cauliflower, broccoli and pumpkin (grey bulk) fell. The prices of onion (brown) and potato (white, brushed) remained unchanged.8
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
