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19 March 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 18 March 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia.
Maximum temperatures were above average over most of Australia during the week ending 17 March 2015. While the majority of the country recorded average minimum temperatures.
As at 19 March 2015, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan is off the north eastern coast of
Queensland moving westward towards the coast. It is expected to cross the north Queensland coast on Friday morning as a Category 4 system.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to parts of western, northern and eastern Australia.
The past fortnight has seen unusual climatic conditions across the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015. All international climate models surveyed indicate that El Niño thresholds are likely to be reached or exceeded around June 2015.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by
272 gigalitres (GL) and are at 42 per cent of total capacity. This is 12 percentage points or 2603 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$249 a tonne in the week ending 17 March 2015, compared with US$241 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 18 March 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 438 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 13 March 2015, 3 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices were largely unchanged in New South Wales at an average of 428 cents a kilogram and rose by 3 per cent in Victoria to an average of 427 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in all states in the week ending
13 March 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest decline occurred in Western
Australia where the indicator price fell by 10 per cent to average 491 cents a kilogram (dressed
weight). In other states, the indicator price fell by 6 per cent in South Australia to average
494 cents a kilogram, 6 per cent in Victoria to average 514 cents a kilogram and 3 per cent in
New South Wales to average 504 cents a kilogram.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 18 March 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia. Rainfalls in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded on the west coast of Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory, across northern and isolate inland areas of Queensland, parts of northern and eastern New South Wales and western Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 507 millimetres near Cooktown in northern Queensland.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 18 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 18/03/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were above average over most of Australia during the week ending 17 March 2015.
Southern Western Australia, the north east of the Northern Territory and north western areas in Queensland recorded temperatures between 6 and 8 degrees above average for this time of year. Maximum temperatures were below average in parts of Western Australia and Tasmanian.
The majority of the country recorded average minimum temperatures during the week ending 17 March 2015.
Minimum temperatures were above average through southern Western Australia and central Queensland and below average in parts of Northern Territory, Victoria and Tasmania.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 17 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 18/03/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 17 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 18/03/2015
4 1.3. Tropical cyclones
As at 19 March 2015, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan (Category 3) is approximately 245km off the north eastern coast of Queensland near Cairns, tracking westward towards the coast. It is expected to cross the north Queensland coast on Friday morning as a Category 4 system between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation. A cyclone WARNING is current for Lockhart River to Port Douglas extending inland to Laura and Palmerville.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan - forecast track map
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 19/03/2015
The forecast paths shown above are the Bureau of Meteorology's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
5 1.4. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to parts of western, northern and eastern Australia.
The forecast heavy falls across northern Queensland and the Top End in Northern Territory are associated with the development, movement, decay and possible reformation of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan. The current forecast movement of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan indicate that this system is likely to make landfall on Friday in northern Queensland and move through the Gulf of Carpentaria where it is likely to re-intensify and cross the Northern Territory coast on Sunday. As a result heavy rainfall associated with this system is forecast to be restricted to far north of the country.
Elsewhere rainfall of 25 millimetres is likely in isolated parts of central Western Australia, south east Queensland and north east New South Wales and much of Tasmania.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 19 to 26 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 18/03/2015
1.5. ENSO Wrap-Up
The past fortnight has seen unusual climatic conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.The development of tropical storms on either side the equator has producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months.
All international climate models surveyed indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm over the coming months, with all models indicating El Niño thresholds are likely to be reached or exceeded around June. All models suggest the central Pacific Ocean will continue to warm past mid-year, with the ensemble mean of the eight models surveyed indicating that the NINO3.4 indicator value is likely to exceed 1.3 °C above normal by August 2015.
It should be noted that model outlooks made in the first quarter of the year generally have lower accuracy than forecasts made at other times of year— and usually these forecasts should be treated with caution.
However, on this occasion, all eight models are consistent in their outlooks for a warming to occur over the coming months in the tropical Pacific Ocean (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 17 March 2015).
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 272 gigalitres (GL) and are at 42 per cent of total capacity. This is 12 percentage points or 2603 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 19 March 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
7 2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2014–15 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
General security allocations have increased in New South Wales for the Murray Valley.
Allocations in Victoria remain unchanged.
Allocations at 19 February 2015 (%) 19 March 2015 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley 59* 97 61* 97
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 51* 95 51* 95
NSW Lower Darling 100* 100 100* 100
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 2* 100 2* 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Upper Namoi 100* 100 100* 100
NSW Gwydir Valley 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Border Rivers 67.1 a /0b 100 67.1 a /0b 100
NSW Peel Valley 0* 50 0* 50
Victoria Low
reliability
High reliability
Low reliability
High reliability
Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 100
Victoria Goulburn 0 100 0 100
Victoria Campaspe 0 100 0 100
Victoria Loddon 0 100 0 100
Victoria Bullarook 100 100 100 100
Victoria Broken 100 100 100 100
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$249 a tonne in the week ending 17 March 2015, compared with US$241 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$172 a tonne in the week ending 18 March 2015, compared with US$175 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$400 a tonne in the week ending 17 March 2015, compared with US$404 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US67.5 cents a pound in the week ending 18 March 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US12.9 cents a pound in the week ending 18 March 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association indicates that as at 15 March 2015, India produced around 22.2 million tonnes of refined sugar in the 2014–15 season (October to September), compared with 19.8 million tonnes over the same period a year ago.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1092 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 12 March 2015, compared with 1085 cents a kilogram in the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 18 March 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $291 a tonne in the week ending 18 March 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $274 a tonne in the week ending 18 March 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $461 a tonne in the week ending 18 March 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 438 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 13 March 2015, 3 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices were largely unchanged in New South Wales at an average of 428 cents a kilogram and rose by 3 per cent in Victoria to an average of 427 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in all states in the week ending 13 March 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest decline occurred in Western Australia where the indicator price fell by 10 per cent to average 491 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). In other states, the indicator price fell by 6 per cent in South Australia to average 494 cents a kilogram and by 3 per cent in Victoria and New South Wales to average 531 cents a kilogram and 504 cents a kilogram, respectively.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder was US$2928 a tonne on 17 March 2015, compared with US$3241 a tonne on 3 March 2015. Over the same period, the price of anhydrous milk fat fell by 8 per cent and the prices of cheddar cheese and skim milk powder both fell by 7 per cent.
The wholesale prices of selected fruits generally fell in the week ending 14 March 2015.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 14 March 2015.The wholesale prices of broccoli, bean (round, stringless), tomato (field gourmet) and lettuce (iceberg) were higher than the previous week while the prices of cauliflower and pumpkin (grey bulk) were lower.
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3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
