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13 August 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 12 August 2015, rainfall was mainly recorded across southern Australia.
Maximum and minimum temperatures were predominantly below average over much of northern Australia during the week ending 11 August 2015.
For the 13-month period July 2014 to July 2015 severe or serious deficiencies remained in a number of areas in northern and central Queensland and across southern Australia. A substantial area of lowest-on-record rainfall was observed around the southern part of the South Australian and Victorian border.
Over the 34-month period from October 2012 to July 2015, the area affected by rainfall deficiencies increased in extent and severity in central and western Victoria and south east South Australia. Rainfall deficiencies also increased slightly across parts of northern, central and southern Queensland, and northern New South Wales
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to southern Australia and parts of Australia’s eastern coastline.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 173 gigalitres (GL) and are at 46 per cent of total capacity. This is 20 percentage points or 4 402 GL less than this time last year.
In New South Wales, general security allocations increased in the Murrumbidgee, Macquarie and Cudgegong, Lachlan, and Gwydir Valleys. In the Peel Valley, general security and high security allocations increased.
In Victoria, high reliability allocations increased in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon Valleys
The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 505 cents a kilogram in Queensland in the week ending 7 August 2015, 2 per cent lower than in the previous week.
Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 614 cents a kilogram and by 5 per cent in Victoria to average 636 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 570 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 7 August 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period the lamb indicator price: remained relatively unchanged in New South Wales at an average of 596 cents a kilogram; increased by 1 per cent in Western Australia to 504 cents per kilogram; and fell by 6 per cent in South Australia to 539 cents per kilogram.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$219 a tonne in the week ending 11 August 2015, compared with US$217 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $326 a tonne in the week ending
12 August 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
2
1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 12 August 2015, rainfall was mainly recorded across southern Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in some areas of south west Western Australia, parts of southern and south east South Australia, eastern Victoria and northern and western Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 64 millimetres at Northcliffe in south west Western Australia.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 12 August 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 12/08/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were predominantly average to below average over much of Australia during the week ending 11 August 2015, while parts of central and northern Australia recorded slightly above average temperatures.
Minimum temperatures were below average over much of northern Australia, and parts of central and eastern Australia during the week ending 11 August 2015. In contrast, parts of western and southern Australia
recorded slightly above average minimum temperatures.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 August 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 12/08/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 August 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 12/08/2015
4 1.3. Rainfall deficiencies
For the 13-month period from July 2014 to July 2015, severe or serious deficiencies remained in a number of areas in northern and central Queensland and across southern Australia. In southern Australia, a substantial area of lowest-on-record rainfall was observed around the southern part of the South Australian and Victorian border with severe deficiencies spreading to central Victoria and much of southern South Australia.
Deficiencies also increased in western and north western Tasmania and on the west coast of south west Western Australia. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 August 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 July 2014 to 30 July 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 03/08/2015
Over the 34-month period from October 2012 to July 2015, rainfall deficiencies increased slightly across parts of northern, central and southern Queensland, and northern New South Wales. Severe and serious
deficiencies persist throughout much of western and central Queensland and into northern New South Wales.
The area affected by rainfall deficiencies increased in extent and severity in central and western Victoria and south east South Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 August 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 October 2012 to 31 July 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 03/08/2015
5 1.4. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to southern Australia and parts of Australia’s eastern coastline. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres is likely across coastal areas of south west Western Australia and western Tasmania.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 13 to 20 August 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 12/08/2015
6
2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 13 August 2015 by 173 gigalitres (GL) and are at 46 per cent of total capacity. This is 20 percentage points or 4 402 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 13 August 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
7 2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2015–16 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
In New South Wales, general security allocations increased in the Murrumbidgee, Macquarie and Cudgegong, Lachlan and Gwydir Valleys. While in the Peel Valley, both general security and high security allocations increased.
In Victoria, high reliability allocations increased
in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon Valleys.
Allocations at 13 August 2015 (%) 23 July 2015 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley 0* 80 0* 80
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 17* 95 12* 95
NSW Lower Darling 0* 20 0* 20
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 7* 100 0* 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley 4* 100 0* 100
NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Upper Namoi 50* 100 50* 100
NSW Gwydir Valley 0.75* 100 0* 100
NSW Border Rivers 100 a /0 b 100 100 a /0 b 100
NSW Peel Valley 12* 100 0* 50
Victoria Low
reliability
High reliability
Low reliability
High reliability
Victoria Murray Valley 0 42 0 37
Victoria Goulburn 0 50 0 45
Victoria Campaspe 0 50 0 50
Victoria Loddon 0 41 0 39
Victoria Bullarook 0 0 0 0
Victoria Broken 0 0 0 0
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class
8
3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$219 a tonne in the week ending 11 August 2015, compared with US$217 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$164 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2015, compared with US$165 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$424 a tonne in the week ending 11 August 2015, compared with US$410 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around US70.3 cents a pound in the week ending 12 August 2015, compared with US 71.4 cents a pound in the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US 10.6 cents a pound in the week ending 12 August 2015, down 4 per cent from the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $326 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $299 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $283 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $530 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 505 cents a kilogram in Queensland in the week ending 7 August 2015, 2 per cent lower than in the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator prices rose by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 614 cents a kilogram and by 5 per cent in Victoria to average 636 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4)averaged 570 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 7 August 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, the indicator price of lamb: remained relatively unchanged in New South Wales at an average of 596 cents a kilogram; increased by 1 per cent in Western Australia to 504 cents per kilogram; and fell by 6 per cent in South Australia to 539 cents per kilogram.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 258 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 6 August 2015, 3 per cent high than the week ending 9 July 2015. The total number of bales offered at auction was 5 per cent higher than the week ending 9 July 2015.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 8 August 2015. The wholesale prices of strawberry and banana (cavendish) rose while the wholesale prices of blueberry and avocado (hass) fell. The wholesale prices of watermelon (seedless), kiwifruit (hayward) and apple (royal gala) remained largely unchanged.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetable were mixed in the week ending 8 August 2015. The prices of lettuce (iceberg), pumpkin (grey bulk) and bean (round, stringless) rose while the prices of tomato (field gourmet) and broccoli decreased. The prices of onion (brown), cauliflower and potato (white, washed) were largely unchanged.9
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
10
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
12
3.4. Crop indicator prices
13
3.5. Livestock indicator prices
14
3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
