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21 May 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 20 May 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across southern Australia and isolated areas of coastal and inland Queensland.
Maximum and minimum temperatures were predominantly average over much of Australia during the week ending 19 May 2015. Some parts in northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia recorded below average maximum and minimum temperatures.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely across much of Western Australia, coastal Northern Territory, parts of coastal and southern Queensland and much of south eastern Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 61 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3207 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$237 a tonne in the week ending 19 May 2015, compared with US$227 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $328 a tonne in the week ending 20 May 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 429 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 15 May 2015, 8 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 7 per cent in New South Wales to average 534 cents a kilogram and by 8 per cent in Victoria to average 510 cents a kilogram.
Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the
states in the week ending 15 May 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator price
rose by 6 per cent in South Australia to average 544 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) and by 1
per cent in Victoria to average 578 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price declined by
2 per cent in Western Australia to average 513 cents a kilogram and by 1 per cent in New South
Wales to average 576 cents a kilogram.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 20 May 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across southern Australia and isolated areas of coastal and inland Queensland. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in south western Western Australia, south eastern South Australia, isolated areas of coastal Queensland, parts of southern and eastern New South Wales, north eastern Victoria and western Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 130 millimetres at Jindong, 250km south of Perth in Western Australia.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 20 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 20/05/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were average over much of Australia during the week ending 19 May 2015. Maximum temperatures were slightly below average in parts of Northern Territory and Western Australia.
While minimum temperatures were largely average over much of Australia, there were isolated areas in most states and territories which recorded below average minimum temperatures during the week ending
19 May 2015. Some parts in northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia recorded temperatures between 4 and 6 degrees below average for this time of year.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 19 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 20/05/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 19 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 20/05/2015
4 1.3. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely across much of Western Australia, parts of coastal Northern Territory, coastal and southern Queensland and much of south eastern Australia. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres have been forecast for parts of central Western Australia, eastern and southern New South Wales and much of northern Victoria and Tasmania.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 21 to 28 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 20/05/2015
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 61 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3207 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 21 May 2015 is shown above.
The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
2.2. Water allocations
On 18 May 2015, the New South Wales Department of Primary Industries Office of Water updated the forecasts of water availabilities for the Murray, Murrumbidgee, Macquarie and Cudgegong water systems for the 2015-16 water year (1 July 2015 to 30 June 2016).
For the Macquarie and Cudgegong water systems full allocations for high security, town water supply and domestic and stock are forecast for the 2015-16 water year. While high security users in the Murray and Macquarie water systems are likely to commence the 2015-16 water year on 80 and 95 per cent of entitlement, respectively.
General security users in the Murray, Macquarie and Cudgegong water systems are likely to start the 2015-16 water year on zero per cent of entitlement, with general security users in the Murrumbidgee water system likely to start at 8 per cent.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$237 a tonne in the week ending 19 May 2015, compared with US$227 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$169 a tonne in the week ending 20 May 2015, compared with US$168 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$432 a tonne in the week ending 19 May 2015, compared with US$419 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US73.4 cents a pound in the week ending 20 May 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
Following the completion of the cotton harvest in the United States, the United States National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates that 3.5 million tonnes of cotton lint was produced in the 2014–15 season (August to July), 26 per cent higher than last season.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US12.8 cents a pound in the week ending 20 May 2015, 4 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association indicates that as at 15 May 2015, India produced 27.8 million tonnes of refined sugar in the 2014–15 season (October to September). This compares with 23.4 million tonnes over the same period a year ago.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1235 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 14 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $328 a tonne in the week ending 20 May 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $293 a tonne in the week ending 20 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $280 a tonne in the week ending 20 May 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $463 a tonne in the week ending 20 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 429 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 15 May 2015, 8 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 7 per cent in New South Wales to average 534 cents a kilogram and by 8 per cent in Victoria to average 510 cents a kilogram.
Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the states in the week ending 15 May 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator price rose by 6 per cent in South Australia to average 544 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) and by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 578 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price declined by 2 per cent in Western Australia to average 513 cents a kilogram and by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 576 cents a kilogram.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of cheddar cheese was US$2745 a tonne on 19 May 2015, compared with US$3012 a tonne on 5 May 2015. Over the same period, the prices of anhydrous milk fat and skim milk powder fell by 5 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. In contrast, the price of whole milk powder remained largely unchanged at US$2390 a tonne.
The wholesale prices of selected fruits generally rose in the week ending 16 May 2015 compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf), watermelon(seedless), blueberry and strawberry were higher while the prices of avocado (hass) and kiwifruit (hayward) were lower.
• Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 16 May 2015 compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of broccoli, lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) were lower while the prices of cauliflower and tomato (field gourmet) were higher.
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3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
