Australian crop report

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Australian crop report

Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

No. 174

June 2015

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Cataloguing data

ABARES 2015, Australian crop report, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, June.

ISSN 1447-8358

ISBN 978-1-74323-237-8 ABARES project 42072 Internet

Australian crop report is available at agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications.

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Postal address GPO Box 858 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 3933 Email [email protected] Web agriculture.gov.au/abares

Inquiries about the licence and any use of this document should be sent to [email protected].

The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in

preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

The next issue of Australian crop report is scheduled to be released on 8 September 2015.

In the next issue:

2015–16 winter crop area estimates and production forecasts updated 2015–16 summer crop area and production forecasts

Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by Benjamin Agbenyegah, Dean Mansfield, Matthew Miller, David Mobsby, Caitlin Murray and Christopher Price.

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Tables

Table 1 Winter crop area, Australia 2

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia 2

Table 3 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia 3

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts 11

Table 5 Winter crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2015–16 13

Table 6 Summer crop estimates, New South Wales, 2014–15 14

Table 7 Winter crop forecasts, Queensland, 2015–16 15

Table 8 Summer crop estimates, Queensland, 2014–15 15

Table 9 Winter crop forecasts, Victoria, 2015–16 16

Table 10 Winter crop forecasts, South Australia, 2015–16 17

Table 11 Winter crop forecasts, Western Australia, 2015–16 18

Table 12 Australian winter crop production and area 19

Table 13 Australian summer crop production and area 19

Table 14 State production, major crops 20

Table 15 State production, other crops 22

Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, oilseeds and pulses 24

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Figures

Figure 1 Winter crop production in eastern Australia 10

Figure 2 Winter crop production in Western Australia 10

Maps

Map 1 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 March 2015 to 31 May 2015 4

Map 2 Rainfall outlook, June to August 2015 5

Map 3 Upper layer soil moisture, April average 2015 6

Map 4 Lower layer soil moisture, April average 2015 7

Map 5 Probability of exceeding long-term simulated median shire wheat yield 8

Map 6 Australian rainfall districts 12

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Overview

The start to the 2015–16 winter crop season in Australia has been generally favourable.

Although there was below average rainfall across south-eastern Australia in March, there was generally above average rainfall in April. Rainfall in Western Australia in March and April was average to above average. May rainfall was generally average for cropping regions across eastern Australia and below average across much of Western Australia. The autumn rainfall increased upper layer soil moisture levels and improved conditions for the planting of winter crops.

The latest three‐month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 May 2015, suggests there will be around average winter rainfall in the cropping regions of Victoria and South Australia and above average rainfall in the cropping regions of Western Australia. However, it is likely there will be below average winter rainfall in the cropping regions in southern Queensland and most of New South Wales.

Beyond the three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), there is a risk of below average spring rainfall in eastern Australia (including South Australia). According to the Bureau of Meteorology (ENSO Wrap-Up, issued 26 May 2015), El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen, which increases the likelihood that rainfall in eastern Australia will be below

average. However, the impact on crop yields from an El Niño event is not uniform and is difficult to predict because the timing of any rainfall is also significant. An El Niño event typically has less impact on rainfall in Western Australia than in eastern Australia.

The total area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to rise by around 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 22.9 million hectares, largely because of an expected increase in the area planted to barley and pulses. Strong import demand for barley from China and chickpeas from India has supported the prices of these commodities.

For the major winter crops, the area planted to wheat is forecast to be largely unchanged at 13.8 million hectares and the area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 4 million hectares. In contrast, the area planted to canola is expected to fall by 13 per cent to 2.3 million hectares because of better relative returns from producing other crops, and dry conditions in some regions during the planting window for canola.

The area planted to chickpeas is forecast to increase by around 60 per cent to 677 000 hectares, mainly in major growing regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland.

Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by around 1 per cent to 38.7 million tonnes, which reflects the forecast increase in planted area. For the major crops: wheat production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 23.6 million tonnes; barley production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 8.2 million tonnes; and canola production is forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 3 million tonnes. Among other crops, production of oats and pulses is forecast to increase because of expected increases in planted area.

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Table 1 Winter crop area, Australia

Year New South

Wales

’000 ha

Victoria

’000 ha

Queensland

’000 ha

South Australia

’000 ha

Western Australia

’000 ha

Australia

’000 ha

2005–06 5 595 2 972 969 3 868 7 408 20 837

2006–07 5 673 3 085 810 4 141 6 478 20 215

2007–08 6 314 3 378 876 4 131 7 266 21 988

2008–09 6 296 3 494 1 212 3 979 7 900 22 909

2009–10 6 108 3 491 1 176 3 783 8 272 22 853

2010–11 6 159 3 460 1 220 3 821 7 716 22 401

2011–12 5 968 3 408 1 208 3 840 8 251 22 693

2012–13 5 848 3 454 1 225 3 775 8 094 22 412

2013–14 5 313 3 285 1 108 3 450 8 243 21 420

2014–15 s 5 843 3 381 1 133 3 986 8 273 22 635

2015–16 f 5 858 3 354 1 199 3 994 8 437 22 863

% change 2014–15

to 2015–16 0 –1 6 0 2 1

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia

Year New South

Wales kt

Victoria

kt

Queensland

kt

South Australia kt

Western Australia kt

Australia

kt

2005–06 11 984 6 271 1 435 7 518 13 946 41 236

2006–07 3 796 1 751 925 2 793 8 279 17 588

2007–08 4 001 4 695 1 195 4 706 10 762 25 423

2008–09 9 441 3 890 2 327 4 864 13 786 34 386

2009–10 7 789 5 892 1 618 7 036 12 944 35 352

2010–11 14 786 7 629 1 822 9 317 8 045 41 681

2011–12 11 955 7 348 2 330 7 368 16 599 45 666

2012–13 11 127 6 879 2 157 6 468 11 241 37 928

2013–14 9 776 6 775 1 517 7 224 16 504 41 882

2014–15 s 9 233 5 496 1 418 7 574 14 552 38 351

2015–16 f 8 967 5 450 1 601 7 142 15 443 38 678

% change 2014–15

to 2015–16 –3 –1 13 –6 6 1

Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

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Total summer crop production is estimated to have declined by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 3.8 million tonnes, driven by falls in production of cotton and rice. However, production of grain sorghum increased. The area planted to summer crops declined by 9 per cent to around

1 million hectares.

Grain sorghum production is estimated to have increased by 39 per cent in 2014–15 to 1.8 million tonnes, reflecting increases in the average yield and planted area. The average yield increased from 2.4 tonnes a hectare in 2013–14 to 3 tonnes a hectare in 2014–15. The planted area increased from 532 000 hectares in 2013–14 to 603 000 hectares in 2014–15.

The 2014–15 cotton harvest is largely complete and lint production is estimated to be around 500 000 tonnes, down from 886 000 tonnes in 2013–14. The area planted to cotton declined by 46 per cent in 2014–15 to 210 000 hectares, largely reflecting dry seasonal conditions during the planting window and reduced supplies of irrigation water. The average lint yield is estimated to have reached a record 2.4 tonnes a hectare in 2014–15 because the crop mainly comprised higher yielding irrigated cotton.

Rice production is estimated to have declined by 12 per cent in 2014–15 to 724 000 tonnes. This decline reflects falls of 6 per cent in both planted area and the average yield, largely as a result of reduced supplies of irrigation water available to rice producers in New South Wales.

Table 3 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia

Year New South Wales Queensland Australia

’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt

2004–05 524 2 020 812 1 842 1 343 3 878

2005–06 776 2 791 645 1 516 1 433 4 352

2006–07 338 1 037 545 1 099 918 2 166

2007–08 398 1 668 791 2 877 1 199 4 567

2008–09 402 1 430 746 2 350 1 156 3 794

2009–10 381 1 405 514 1 342 903 2 764

2010–11 713 2 514 790 1 901 1 514 4 446

2011–12 769 3 101 792 2 394 1 578 5 546

2012–13 702 3 222 687 2 259 1 402 5 533

2013–14 575 2 345 567 1 484 1 154 3 892

2014–15 s 453 2 021 585 1 683 1 050 3 753

% change 2013–14

to 2014–15 –21 –14 3 13 –9 –4

s ABARES estimate.

Note: State production includes cottonseed, grain sorghum, corn (maize), mung beans, rice, peanuts, soybeans and sunflower. Total for Australia also includes navy beans and small areas and volumes of summer crops in other states.

Summer crop production figures include northern wet season rice and northern dry season cotton and rice.

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Climatic and agronomic conditions

Spatial rainfall percentile analyses are based on historical monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These rainfall percentile maps show how rainfall recorded during a given time period compare with the rainfall recorded for that same period during the entire historical record (1900 to present). To calculate percentiles, the entire rainfall record at a certain point in time is divided into one hundred equal parts. The 5th percentile for autumn 2015 means that only five percent of all autumns in the historical record have recorded a rainfall total that is at or below the rainfall recorded during autumn 2015.

Rainfall was largely average in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia during autumn 2015. Rainfall in Queensland and Victoria was variable, ranging from below average to above average during the same period (Map 1).

March 2015 rainfall was below average over most winter cropping regions in eastern Australia, with parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales recording close to average rainfall. In contrast, much of Western Australia recorded above average rainfall. Much of Australia’s winter cropping zone received average to above average rainfall during April 2015, resulting in

increased upper layer soil moisture levels. May 2015 rainfall was generally average for cropping regions across eastern Australia. May 2015 rainfall was below average across much of Western Australia and parts of central Victoria, southern New South Wales and western South Australia.

Map 1 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 March 2015 to 31 May 2015

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for cropping regions only.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The rainfall outlook for June to August 2015 shows the likelihood of experiencing wetter or drier than median weather for the upcoming three months (Map 2).

The Bureau of Meteorology notes that both the Pacific and Indian oceans are influencing this outlook. The El Niño in the Pacific (which models indicate will strengthen) is having a drying impact on parts of eastern Australia. In contrast, continued warmth in the Indian Ocean, coupled with the El Niño in the Pacific, is tending to enhance rainfall in southern Western Australia. Sea

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surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean also remain higher than normal. This pattern of SSTs, coupled with the warm SSTs in the Pacific, is tending to enhance rainfall in the southern half of Western Australia. Analysis conducted by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that the tropical Pacific will continue to warm throughout winter and spring, with the El Niño continuing to strengthen.

Some model results suggest an increased chance of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event developing later in 2015. Positive IOD events are typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over southern and central Australia.

The latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued on 28 May by the Bureau of Meteorology, indicates that a drier than average winter is more likely for much of New South Wales and southern Queensland, while a wetter than average winter is more likely in Western Australia (Map 2). In South Australia, Victoria and parts of Queensland, it is suggested that winter rainfall in the cropping zone is likely to be around average.

Map 2 Rainfall outlook, June to August 2015

Note: Rainfall outlook is displayed for cropping regions only.

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The temperature outlook for June to August 2015 indicates that warmer night time temperatures are more likely across most cropping regions. Warmer than average winter daytime temperatures are more likely across most eastern and southern cropping regions, while cooler than average winter daytime temperatures are more likely in Western Australia.

Maps 3 and 4 show relative levels of modelled upper layer (~0.2 metres) and lower layer (~0.2 to ~1.5 metres) soil moisture for the wheat–sheep zone across Australia during April 2015. Soil moisture estimates are relative to the standard climatological 1961–90 reference period and presented in percentiles.

The 90th to 100th percentiles in maps 3 and 4 indicate where the estimated soil moisture level for April 2015 falls into the wettest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for that month during the 1961–90 reference period. The 0 to 10th percentiles indicate where the estimated soil moisture levels for April 2015 fell into the driest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for that month during the 1961–90 reference period. These data are from a collaborative project between the Bureau of Meteorology, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

Research Organisation (CSIRO) and ABARES that estimates soil moisture and other components of water balance at high resolution across Australia.

Upper layer soil moisture responds quickly to seasonal conditions and will often show a pattern that reflects rainfall and temperature events of the same month. Lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to seasonal conditions and tends to reflect the accumulated effects of events that have occurred over longer periods.

Rainfall during April 2015 improved upper layer soil moisture to predominantly above average across most cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland (Map 3). In contrast, upper layer soil moisture was below average across most parts of the cropping zone in Victoria and central Queensland.

Map 3 Upper layer soil moisture, April average 2015

Note: Relative upper layer soil moisture displayed for wheat–sheep zone only.

Source: ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Availability Project); CSIRO

Soil moisture in the lower layer during April 2015 was largely average to above average across the cropping regions in South Australia, central and south-east Queensland, southern Western

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Australia and parts of New South Wales (Map 4). These above average levels of lower layer soil moisture mean that crop development in these regions will be less reliant on in-crop rainfall.

Lower layer soil moisture levels were below average in most of the cropping regions in Victoria, New South Wales, south-west Queensland and the northern and central cropping regions of Western Australia. Crop development in these areas will be more reliant on timely in-crop rainfall.

Map 4 Lower layer soil moisture, April average 2015

Note: Relative lower layer soil moisture displayed for wheat–sheep zone only.

Source: ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Availability Project); CSIRO

The University of Queensland’s Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation’s shire- scale wheat forecasting system produces yield predictions for wheat. The system combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index. At the beginning of June 2015, this forecasting system estimated the probability of exceeding median wheat yields to be generally below average in most

cropping regions across south eastern Australia (Map 5). In many regions of Western Australia the probability of exceeding average wheat yields is higher than in eastern Australia. Parts of southern Queensland, northern New South Wales, western Victoria, western South Australia and the eastern wheat belt in Western Australia are showing a low chance of exceeding median yield (between 0 per cent and 20 per cent).

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Map 5 Probability of exceeding long-term simulated median shire wheat yield

Source: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation

El Niño and crop production

According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ issued on 26 May 2015, the El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen.

Oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are showing a clear El Niño signal. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for nearly two months, supported by warmer than average ocean temperatures below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness along the equator at the International Date Line has increased and the 90- day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped below −10, indicating a three-month period of higher atmospheric pressure in the western Pacific.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to warm further during the coming months. All surveyed models indicate that ocean temperatures in the NINO3.4 region of the tropical Pacific will remain above El Niño thresholds through the southern hemisphere winter and at least well into spring. El Niño is often associated with below average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country.

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However, the strength of El Niño does not directly relate to the strength of its effects on Australia’s climate.

In early June 2015, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was neutral, with the majority of the Indian Ocean being warmer than average. Of the five international models that monitor the IOD, three suggest a positive IOD event is likely later in 2015. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

El Niño events defined

El Niño events involve extensive warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific. These events occur every three to eight years. El Niño is often associated with below average rainfall during the second half of the calendar year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

In addition to possible effects on rainfall, El Niño typically has a strong influence on

temperatures in Australia. During El Niño years, winter and spring daytime temperatures tend to be warmer than normal. This can exacerbate the effect of below normal rainfall by increasing evaporation and lead to lower soil moisture levels. Conversely, reduced cloud cover and rainfall mean that night time temperatures tend to cool very rapidly, often leading to widespread frosts.

Each El Niño event has had a different effect on Australia’s climate. El Niño events typically begin to develop during autumn, strengthen in winter and spring and then decay during summer and autumn the following year. El Niño events normally last for around a year, however, they can be shorter or longer.

Around two-thirds of El Niño events since 1900 have been associated with drought over large areas of Australia. Some El Niño events are referred to as weak or strong, based on the extent to which ocean temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean increase above their normal levels. On average, a strong event in the Pacific Ocean tends to have a larger effect over eastern Australia. However, not all follow this pattern. For example, the weak El Niño of 1994 had a far greater rainfall effect over most of eastern Australia than the very strong event of 1997–98.

Impact of El Niño on crop production

The effect of an El Niño event on crop production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. While reduced rainfall is often associated with El Niño, the timing of the rainfall can have a significant effect on crop production. For example, several of the El Niño events in the past three decades have not had any significant effect on winter crop production in eastern Australia including South Australia (Figure 1). The effect of El Niño on winter crop production in Western Australia is far less pronounced (Figure 2). The effect of El Niño on winter crop production depends on the intensity of the event and the timing of rainfall.

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Figure 1 Winter crop production in eastern Australia a

a includes South Australia. s ABARES estimate.

Figure 2 Winter crop production in Western Australia

s ABARES estimate. Mt

10 20 30 40

1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15s

Mt 10 20 30 40

1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15s

El Niño years

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Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts

District District

no. March median mm

March 2015

mm

April median mm

April 2015

mm

May median

mm

May 2015

mm New South Wales

NW Plains (W) 52 35 30 25 64 26 25

NW Plains (E) 53 44 49 28 97 32 36

NW Slopes (N) 54 55 77 30 93 37 51

NW Slopes (S) 55 45 33 33 87 34 44

N Tablelands (N) 56 72 54 39 105 39 56

CW Plains (S) 50 26 5 23 63 28 25

CW Plains (N) 51 27 7 17 69 28 39

CW Slopes (N) 64 40 18 32 99 34 51

CW Slopes (S) 65 37 9 35 93 37 36

C Tablelands (N) 62 46 29 38 94 37 47

C Tablelands (S) 63 54 32 50 162 41 39

Riverina (W) 75 19 1 19 43 25 12

Riverina (E) 74 25 2 27 54 30 19

SW Slopes (N) 73 37 7 37 81 43 34

SW Slopes (S) 72 55 10 64 124 78 75

Victoria

N Mallee 76 14 2 15 45 24 17

S Mallee 77 14 3 18 26 30 22

N Wimmera 78 16 6 21 19 39 30

S Wimmera 79 20 15 30 27 50 45

Lower North 80 18 6 25 28 35 17

Upper North 81 24 7 31 38 48 26

Lower North East 82 52 10 57 117 85 84

North Central 88 39 23 55 43 66 46

Western Plains 89 31 25 40 30 54 56

West Coast 90 38 43 54 43 73 91

Queensland

Central Highlands 35 49 49 25 21 22 13

Maranoa 43 47 57 21 35 24 24

W Darling Downs 42 50 31 24 57 29 28

E Darling Downs 41 54 45 24 45 30 78

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Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts (continued)

District District

no. March median mm

March 2015

mm

April median mm

April 2015 mm

May median

mm

May 2015

mm South Australia

Upper South East 25B 14 6 30 38 45 45

Murray Mallee 25A 10 2 16 39 30 27

Murray River 24 10 3 15 55 26 26

East Central 23 19 9 39 79 62 63

Yorke Peninsula 22A 12 5 25 46 44 44

Lower North 21 12 2 23 65 36 28

Upper North 19 10 1 13 70 25 16

Western Agricultural 18 9 5 18 34 25 19

Western Australia

North Coast 8 10 70 15 37 46 17

Central Coast 9 11 30 35 42 101 56

Northern Central 10 13 57 17 27 39 17

South Central 10A 15 30 23 37 49 26

South East 12 19 48 17 26 21 10

Note: Median rainfall is calculated over the period 1900 to 2015. Australian rainfall districts are shown in Map 6.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology monthly district rainfall reports

Map 6 Australian rainfall districts

Note: Displayed for major cropping districts only. See Table 4 for district names and observed district rainfall.

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Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state

New South Wales

Winter crop planting conditions have been generally favourable in New South Wales, with average rainfall observed in autumn for most cropping areas. The autumn rainfall, particularly in April 2015, raised soil moisture levels for most of the cropping region. However, planting

conditions have been less favourable in the north-western cropping region of New South Wales.

Autumn rainfall in the north-west was generally average to below average.

Lower layer soil moisture levels were generally low in April and in-crop rainfall will be critical to crop development in New South Wales this season, particularly for the north-western cropping region of the state. The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued on 28 May 2015, indicates the chance of exceeding median rainfall is below 45 per cent across parts of the central and southern regions and below 40 per cent for most other cropping regions in New South Wales.

The area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2015–16 at around 5.9 million hectares, reflecting an expected increase in the area planted to cereals and pulses and an offsetting decline in the area planted to canola.

Total winter crop production is forecast to decline in 2015–16, reflecting the unfavourable winter rainfall outlook for New South Wales. As a result, yields are expected to be lower than in the previous season. El Niño increases the likelihood of below average spring rainfall in New South Wales, a downside risk to the forecast volume of production.

The area planted to wheat is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2015–16 at 3.9 million hectares. Wheat production is forecast to decline by 2 per cent to 6.2 million tonnes.

The area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2015–16 to 670 000 hectares as a result of expected higher relative returns from growing barley. Barley production is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes.

The area planted to canola is forecast to decline in 2015–16 by 15 per cent to 555 000 hectares as a result of less attractive relative returns from growing canola. Canola production is forecast to decline by 20 per cent to 722 000 tonnes.

Table 5 Winter crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 3 900 1.58 6 162 0 –2

Barley 670 1.80 1 206 5 2

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planted to summer crops is estimated to have been 21 per cent lower in 2014–15 at 453 000 hectares.

Grain sorghum production is estimated to have increased by 40 per cent in 2014–15 to 585 000 tonnes. This largely reflects an improvement in the average yield in 2014–15 to around

3.3 tonnes a hectare, up from 2.4 tonnes a hectare in 2013–14.

Cotton production is estimated to have fallen by 44 per cent in 2014–15 to 329 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 465 000 tonnes of cottonseed. This fall largely reflects the area planted to cotton almost halving to 136 000 hectares.

Rice production is estimated to have declined by 11 per cent in 2014–15 to 720 000 tonnes.

Reduced supplies of irrigation water for rice production led to an estimated 5 per cent fall in planted area and the average yield fell by 7 per cent from a record high in 2013–14.

Table 6 Summer crop estimates, New South Wales, 2014–15

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Grain sorghum 180 3.25 585 3 40

Cotton lint 136 2.42 329 –47 –44

Cottonseed 136 3.42 465 –47 –44

Rice 70 10.29 720 –5 –11

Note: Yields are based on area planted.

Queensland

Rainfall received across cropping regions in Queensland during autumn has resulted in a generally favourable opening to the 2015–16 winter cropping season. For most of Queensland’s cropping regions upper layer soil moisture was above average during April.

In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued on 28 May, the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a 35 per cent to 50 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall in Queensland’s crop growing regions from June to August 2015.

The total area planted to winter crops is expected to rise by 6 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.2 million hectares. The area planted to chickpeas is forecast to drive the increase in winter cropping planted area. The forecast rise in chickpea plantings is expected to be partially at the expense of area planted to wheat and barley.

Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 13 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes. Yields are forecast to be below average because of the outlook for drier than average seasonal conditions over winter. The increased likelihood of below average rainfall during spring because of El Niño is a downside risk to the forecast yields.

The area planted to wheat is forecast to decrease by 11 per cent in 2015–16 to

750 000 hectares. Wheat production is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to around 1 million tonnes.

The area planted to chickpeas is forecast to more than double in 2015–16 to 350 000 hectares.

The forecast rise in the area planted to chickpeas is in response to relatively high chickpea prices over the first half of 2015. Total chickpea production is forecast to more than double to 455 000 tonnes.

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Table 7 Winter crop forecasts, Queensland, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 750 1.35 1 013 –11 –4

Barley 75 1.60 120 –25 –20

Chickpeas 350 1.30 455 112 126

Total summer crop production in Queensland is estimated to have risen by 13 per cent in 2014–15 to around 1.7 million tonnes. This was largely because of improved seasonal conditions, compared with the 2013–14 season, resulting in higher average yields. The area planted to summer crops is estimated have risen by 3 per cent to 585 000 hectares, with a 19 per cent increase in grain sorghum plantings largely being offset by a sharp decline in the area planted to cotton.

Grain sorghum production is estimated to have risen by 39 per cent in 2014–15 to 1.2 million tonnes. While early and later sown crops were adversely affected by unfavourable seasonal conditions, most of the grain sorghum crop is expected to achieve around average yields.

Cotton production in Queensland is estimated to have decreased by 42 per cent in 2014–15 to 171 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 242 000 tonnes of cottonseed. The area planted to cotton is estimated to have declined by 46 per cent to 74 000 hectares, while the average cotton lint yield is estimated to have risen to a record 2.3 tonnes a hectare.

Table 8 Summer crop estimates, Queensland, 2014–15

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Grain sorghum 422 2.84 1 200 19 39

Cotton lint 74 2.32 171 –46 –42

Cottonseed 74 3.27 242 –46 –42

Victoria

In Victoria, the opening to the 2015–16 winter cropping season has been generally less than favourable. Rainfall was generally below average in the lead-up to the planting window.

Additionally, upper and lower layer soil moisture levels remain well below average across most of the key cropping regions. In-crop rainfall will be important to crop development in these regions.

In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued on 28 May 2015, the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the chance of exceeding median winter rainfall is slightly less

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El Niño is also a downside risk to the yield forecasts because it increases the likelihood of drier than average conditions in Victoria during spring.

The total winter cropping area in Victoria is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to around 3.4 million hectares. The expected decline reflects generally unfavourable planting conditions.

The area planted to cereals and pulses is forecast to have increased at the expense of canola.

Total winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to decline by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to around 5.5 million tonnes.

The area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to around 1.6 million hectares, largely at the expense of canola area.

The area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 950 000 hectares.

As with wheat, the forecast rise in area planted to barley reflects expected higher returns relative to production alternatives, particularly canola.

The area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 19 per cent in 2015–16 to 365 000 hectares. The decline reflects generally unfavourable planting conditions, the less than favourable seasonal outlook and relatively low prices leading up to planting. The area planted to canola in the previous season was supported by favourable conditions at the time of planting.

The area planted to pulses is forecast to increase by 16 per cent in 2015–16 to 300 000

hectares. The forecast rise reflects expected high relative returns and the increased use of pulses in crop rotations. In Victoria, the forecast increase in the area planted to pulses is expected to be driven by forecast increases in the areas planted to lentils and faba beans.

Table 9 Winter crop forecasts, Victoria, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 1 625 1.70 2 767 1 1

Barley 950 1.76 1 676 2 2

Canola 365 1.21 443 –19 –19

South Australia

Rainfall over autumn was generally average across the South Australian cropping region.

Rainfall in March was generally below average but during April 2015 was above average across most of the South Australian cropping zone. May rainfall maintained favourable levels of upper and lower layer soil moisture in most major crop growing regions.

In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued on 28 May, the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the chance of exceeding median rainfall is around 50 per cent in most parts of the South Australian cropping zone.

The area planted to winter crops in South Australia is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2015–16 at around 4 million hectares. This reflects a forecast increase in the area planted to cereals and pulses, which is expected to be largely offset by a fall in the area planted to canola.

Total winter crop production is forecast to fall in 2015–16, largely reflecting the forecast of a return to average yields. El Niño is a downside risk to forecast winter crop production in South Australia.

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The area planted to wheat is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 2.4 million hectares in 2015–16. Wheat production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 4.3 million tonnes.

The area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2015–16 to 935 000 hectares.

This is a result of expected favourable returns from growing barley compared with production alternatives. Barley production is forecast to decline by 1 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes under the assumption of a return to average yields.

The area planted to canola is forecast to decline by 21 per cent in 2015–16 to 225 000 hectares, mainly reflecting an increase in the area planted to barley and pulses at the expense of canola.

Low yields were achieved in the previous season in some regions as a result of beet western yellow virus and adverse seasonal conditions. Canola production is forecast to decline by 18 per cent to 270 000 tonnes.

Table 10 Winter crop forecasts, South Australia, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 2 360 1.84 4 347 0 –7

Barley 935 2.05 1 917 7 –1

Canola 225 1.20 270 –21 –18

Western Australia

Average to above average rainfall across the Western Australian cropping region over autumn has resulted in favourable conditions at the start of the 2015–16 winter cropping season.

Autumn rainfall increased upper layer soil moisture levels to above average for most of the cropping region in April 2015.

Producers are expected to respond to the favourable conditions in early autumn by increasing total area planted to winter crops. The favourable conditions are also expected to benefit crop establishment. Given the generally sandy soils in Western Australia, timely rainfall will be important for realising forecast production.

In its latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2015), issued on 28 May, the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a 60 per cent to 70 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall over winter in the Western Australian cropping regions.

The total area planted to winter crops is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 8.4 million hectares, reflecting generally favourable planting conditions. The area planted to cereal crops and pulses is expected to rise, while area planted to canola is expected to fall. Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 15.4 million tonnes, largely because of an increase in forecast yields. El Niño events typically do not adversely affect rainfall in Western Australia.

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The area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.2 million hectares.

This forecast decline reflects in part an increase in the area planted to minor crops in Western Australia such including lupins and oats. Canola production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes.

Table 11 Winter crop forecasts, Western Australia, 2015–16

Crop Area

’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change

%

Prod. change

%

Wheat 5 150 1.80 9 270 1 4

Barley 1 350 2.45 3 308 5 8

Canola 1 200 1.27 1 524 –9 –7

Lupins 342 1.40 479 19 25

(23)

Table 12 Australian winter crop production and area

Crop Area Production

2013–14

’000 ha

2014–15 s

’000 ha

2015–16 f

’000 ha

2013–14 kt

2014–15 s kt

2015–16 f kt

Wheat 12 613 13 810 13 793 25 303 23 666 23 598

Barley 3 814 3 836 3 986 9 174 8 014 8 249

Canola 2 721 2 712 2 347 3 832 3 414 2 961

Chickpeas 508 425 677 629 555 845

Faba beans 152 164 210 328 284 337

Field peas 245 237 204 342 290 254

Lentils 170 189 229 254 242 258

Lupins 387 443 497 626 549 638

Oats 715 678 798 1 255 1 096 1 384

Triticale 80 125 105 126 228 143

Note: The crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory in the Australian totals.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

Table 13 Australian summer crop production and area

Crop Area Production

2012–13

’000 ha

2013–14

’000 ha

2014–15 s

’000 ha

2012–13 kt

2013–14 kt

2014–15 s kt

Grain sorghum 647 532 603 2 229 1 282 1 788

Cottonseed a 443 392 210 1 439 1 252 707

Cotton lint a 443 392 210 1 017 886 500

Rice (paddy) 113 75 71 1 161 819 724

Corn (maize) 78 52 67 506 390 392

Soybeans 41 31 27 91 62 54

Sunflower 30 26 24 44 31 30

a Cotton area is estimated harvested area. s ABARES estimate.

Note: The crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory in the Australian totals.

Rice, cottonseed and cotton lint include northern dry and wet season crops.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

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Australian crop report June 2015ABARES

20

Table 14 State production, major crops

Crop New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt Winter crops

Wheat

2015–16 f 3 900 6 162 1 625 2 767 750 1 013 2 360 4 347 5 150 9 270 8 39

2014–15 s 3 900 6 275 1 615 2 750 840 1 050 2 350 4 650 5 097 8 900 8 41

2013–14 3 269 6 596 1 536 3 396 758 1 036 1 927 4 254 5 115 9 977 8 43

Five-year average to 2014–15 3 668 7 839 1 641 3 585 865 1 422 2 197 4 611 4 983 8 334 7 36

Barley

2015–16 f 670 1 206 950 1 676 75 120 935 1 917 1 350 3 308 6 22

2014–15 s 640 1 184 935 1 650 100 150 870 1 931 1 285 3 075 6 24

2013–14 715 1 486 919 2 036 106 180 810 1 892 1 258 3 556 6 25

Five-year average to 2014–15 705 1 515 868 1 918 94 167 844 1 911 1 221 2 638 7 26

Canola

2015–16 f 555 722 365 443 1 1 225 270 1 200 1 524 1 2

2014–15 s 650 904 453 550 1 0 285 328 1 322 1 630 1 2

2013–14 673 922 439 710 2 1 297 419 1 307 1 777 1 3

Five-year average to 2014–15 711 1 044 456 658 1 1 284 387 1 195 1 344 1 1

Oats

2015–16 f 250 263 95 168 18 10 80 129 350 805 4 10

2014–15 s 250 270 100 179 20 10 73 132 230 495 4 10

2013–14 268 283 106 213 23 3 54 82 260 661 4 12

Five-year average to 2014–15 262 311 124 219 25 11 63 101 258 521 4 9

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Australian crop report June 2015ABARES

21

Table 14 State production, major crops (continued)

Crop New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt Summer crops

Grain sorghum

2014–15 s 180 585 0 0 422 1 200 0 0 1 3 0 0

2013–14 175 419 0 0 356 860 0 0 1 2 0 0

2012–13 214 747 1 4 431 1 475 0 1 1 2 0 0

Five-year average to 2013–14 194 662 1 2 398 1 172 0 0 1 1 0 0

Cottonseed a

2014–15 s 136 465 0 0 74 242 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 256 831 0 0 136 421 0 0 0 0 0 0

2012–13 284 949 0 0 159 490 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rice

2014–15 s 70 720 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 73 812 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2012–13 113 1 158 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Australian crop report