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26 February 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 25 February 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across northern and eastern Australia.
Two Tropical Cyclone systems made landfall within the Australian region in the week ending 26 February 2015, bringing destructive winds and heavy rainfall.
Maximum temperatures were above average in parts of Australia during the week ending 24 February 2015, while minimum temperatures were slightly above average in central Western Australia and most of south-eastern Australia.
The March 2015 rainfall outlook suggests that wetter than average conditions are likely across the Top End of the Northern Territory and areas near the Queensland and New South Wales border.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by
241 gigalitres (GL) and are at 45 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2483 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$246 a tonne in the week ending 24 February 2015, compared with US$255 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $315 a tonne in the week ending 25 February 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 421 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 20 February 2015, 9 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 441 cents a kilogram and were largely unchanged in Victoria at an average of 413 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) was lower in all states in the week ending 20 February 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest fall was in South Australia, where the indicator price declined by 4 per cent to average 523 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). In eastern states, the indicator price declined by 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 514 cents a kilogram and by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 548 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator price fell by 2 per cent to average 506 cents a kilogram.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 25 February 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across northern and eastern Australia.
Rainfalls in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded on the mid and northern coast of Western Australia, the top half of the Northern Territory, across northern, southern and coastal Queensland, north-east and southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria. The highest recorded rainfall total was 501 millimetres at
Landsborough, on the Sunshine Coast in Queensland.
Rainfall in excess of 200 millimetres was recorded across the Top End, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales. These falls were associated with the Severe Tropical Cyclones Lam and Marcia.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 25 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 25/02/2015
1.2. Tropical cyclones
Two Tropical Cyclone systems made landfall within the Australian region in the week ending 25 February 2015, bringing destructive winds and heavy rainfall. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam crossed the north coast of the Northern Territory and moved south-westerly, bringing up to 300 millimetres of rainfall to the Top End. Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia crossed the central Queensland coast and moved southerly bringing heavy rainfall to south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales.
3 1.3. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were above average in parts of Australia during the week ending 24 February 2015.
Central Queensland, central Western Australia, south-east South Australia, western Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania recorded above average temperatures. Maximum temperatures in these areas were between 4 and 6 degrees above average for this time of year. Much of the remainder of the country recorded average or slightly below average temperatures
Minimum temperatures were slightly above average in central Western Australia and most of south-eastern Australia during the week ending 24 February 2015.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 24 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 25/02/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 24 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 25/02/2015
4 1.4. National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature climate outlook presented below, show the likelihood, as a percentage, of experiencing wetter/drier (and warmer/cooler) than median weather for the upcoming three months.
Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/
.
The March rainfall outlook suggests that there is an increased chance of wetter than average conditions across the Top End of Australia and the areas near the Queensland and New South Wales border. The rest of the country shows a nearly equal chance of wetter or drier than average rainfall for March 2015 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 February 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
March 2015
5
The rainfall outlook for autumn 2015 (March to May 2015) indicates that wetter than average conditions are more likely across central parts of Western Australia, central Australia, and in small isolated areas in the Top End of the Northern Territory and north-west New South Wales. Elsewhere, the chances of wetter or drier than average conditions are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 February 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March to May 2015
The three-month temperature outlook indicates warmer than average maximum temperatures are likely over the western and southern coastline of Western Australia, much of northern Australia, and much of south-east Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal for most of Australia, except for the Top End of the Northern Territory and south-east Queensland (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 26 February 2015).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature
March to May 2015
6 Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature
March to May 2015
7 1.5. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely over much of western and northern Australia. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres are expected across most of the Northern Territory and Western Australia, far North Queensland, north eastern New South Wales and western Tasmania. Heavy falls over 200 millimetres have been forecast across the Top End of the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 26 February to 5 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 25/02/2015
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 241 gigalitres (GL) and are at 45 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2483 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 26 February 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$246 a tonne in the week ending 24 February 2015, compared with US$255 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$174 a tonne in the week ending 25 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$414 a tonne in the week ending 24 February 2015, compared with US$411 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US71.1 cents a pound in the week ending 25 February 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US14.3 cents a pound in the week ending 25 February 2015, 5 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from the Thailand Office of the Cane and Sugar Board indicates that, as at 16 February 2015, Thailand had crushed around 67.5 million tonnes of cane in the 2014–15 season (October to September).This compares with 66.8 million tonnes crushed by the same date last year.
India’s Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution announced a subsidy of INR 4000 (around US$65) a tonne for exports of up to 1.4 million tonnes of raw sugar in the 2014–15 season (October to September).
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1090 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 19 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $315 a tonne in the week ending 25 February 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $297 a tonne in the week ending 25 February 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $282 a tonne in the week ending 25 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $477 a tonne in the week ending 25 February 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 421 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 20 February 2015, 9 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 441 cents a kilogram and were largely unchanged in Victoria at an average of 413 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) was lower in all states in the week ending 20 February 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest fall was in South Australia, where the indicator price declined by 4 per cent to average 523 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). In eastern states, the indicator price declined by 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 514 cents a kilogram and by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 548 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator price fell by 2 per cent to average 506 cents a kilogram.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruits were mixed in the week ending 21 February 2015. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf) and watermelon (seedless) were higher than the previous week while the prices of blueberry, strawberry and avocado (hass) were lower.
The wholesale prices of selected vegetables generally fell in the week ending 21 February 2015. The wholesale prices of broccoli, tomato (field gourmet), bean (round, stringless) and lettuce (iceberg) were lower than the previous week while the price of cauliflower was higher.10
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
