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23 June 2016
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
• During the week ending 22 June 2016 rainfall was recorded in all states and territories, with widespread heavy falls recorded across central and eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia.
• This week’s rainfall is likely to benefit crop and pasture production, boost soil moisture levels and provide useful inflows into key water storages and farm dams. However, these falls have slowed progress of the sugar cane harvest in Queensland.
• For the week ending 21 June 2016, maximum temperatures were above average in northern and north-western Australia and below average in parts of south-western Western Australia.
Minimum temperatures were above average across most of the Australian mainland.
• International reports indicate that May 2016 was globally the warmest May on record.
• The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to central and southern Australia.
• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 349 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 23 June 2016 to 8 105 GL and are at 36 per cent of total capacity.
• The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 582 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 17 June 2016, 3 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price increased by 9 per cent in New South Wales to average 633 cents a kilogram and increased by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 623 cents a kilogram.
• The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 630 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 17 June 2016, up 3 per cent on the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was up marginally in New South Wales at 603 cents a kilogram, and up by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 559 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator was up by 1 per cent to average 501 cents a kilogram.
• The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was
US$199 a tonne in the week ending 21 June 2016, compared with US$208 a tonne the previous
week.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
Rainfall was recorded in all states and territories for the week ending 22 June 2016, with widespread heavy falls recorded across central and eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia. During the middle of the week, an upper level trough and resultant low pressure system brought heavy rain to parts of central, southern and coastal Queensland, central New South Wales and eastern Victoria. Several locations in central and western Queensland recorded daily rainfall totals well in excess of their average monthly rainfall for June.
Rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded across most of New South Wales, eastern Victoria, much of Queensland, north-western and south-western Western Australia, most of Tasmania, much of southern South Australia and southern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of New South Wales, eastern Victoria, and central and coastal Queensland. The highest recorded weekly total was 162 millimetres at Peachester, in the Sunshine Coast region of Queensland.
This week’s rainfall is likely to benefit crop and pasture production, boost soil moisture levels and provide useful inflows into key water storages and farm dams. However, these falls have slowed progress of the annual sugar cane harvest on Queensland’s east coast and caused localised flooding in parts of south-eastern
Queensland.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Rainfall for the week ending 22 June 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/06/2016
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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 21 June 2016, maximum temperatures were above average across regions of northern and north-western Australia and below average in parts of south-western Western Australia. Across the rest of Australia maximum temperatures were close to average.
Minimum temperatures were above average across most of the Australian mainland for the week ending 21 June 2016. Large areas of Queensland and adjacent parts of the Northern Territory, South Australia and New South Wales recorded minimum temperatures between 4 °C and 6 °C above average. Much of Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania recorded close to average minimum temperatures for this time of year.
Reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) indicate that May 2016 was globally the warmest May on record. According to NOAA’s State of the Climate report, the May temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.87 °C above the 20th century average of 14.8 °C. NOAA report that May 2016 also marked the 13th month in a row to break global temperature records – the longest stretch of consecutive months that a global record has been set since records began in 1880.
Much of Australia experienced warmer than average conditions during May 2016, with record warmth in the north and east. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the national May mean temperature was 1.88 °C above the 1961-1990 average. This is the second highest May temperature since national records began in 1910, behind 1958 (+2.11 °C).
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 June 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/06/2016
4 Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 June 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/06/2016
Note: spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
1.3. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to central and southern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern and southern Victoria, south-eastern South Australia, parts of south-western and central Western Australia and across most of western and northern Tasmania.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 23 to 30 June 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 23/06/2016
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1.4. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update
During mid-June 2016, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific was near zero, indicating ENSO neutral conditions. Key atmospheric variables also indicated neutral ENSO conditions. Most prediction models show a continuation of neutral ENSO conditions for the remainder of June and into July 2016.
The chance of La Niña has decreased slightly compared to the previous ENSO Wrap-Up issued 7 June 2016. The Bureau of Meteorology report that four out of eight international models suggest that La Niña could form in the second half of 2016, compared to six of the eight models in the previous ENSO Wrap-Up. If La Niña does develop, climate models suggest it is unlikely to reach levels seen in the most recent event of 2010–12, which was one of the strongest La Niña events on record.
Warm ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean and in the Tasman Sea are also currently influencing Australia’s climate. Warm ocean temperatures surrounding Australia provide more moisture to weather systems that pass over the oceans and potentially change the path weather systems take, resulting in more systems reaching the continent.
Warm ocean temperatures to the northwest of Australia can be associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), especially when they occur at the same time as cooler than usual ocean in the tropical western Indian Ocean, near the African coast. Climate models and current observations suggest a negative IOD may be in the early stages of development. However several more weeks of similar ocean temperature patterns would need to be observed before 2016 is considered a negative IOD year. Negative IOD events typically bring higher than usual winter and spring rainfall to southern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’,
21 June 2016).
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 349 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 23 June 2016 to 8 105 GL, and are at 36 per cent of total capacity. This is 5 percentage points or 1 193 GL less than at the same time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 23 June 2016 is shown above.
The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
•
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$199 a tonne in the week ending 21 June 2016, compared with US$208 a tonne the previous week.•
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) was US$182 a tonne in the week ending 22 June 2016, compared with US$186 a tonne in the previous week.•
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook 'A' index) averaged around US74.2 cents a pound in the week ending 22 June 2016, the highest weekly price in almost two years. The previous high was around US75.1 cents a pound recorded in the week ending 17 September 2014.•
Data from the Cotton Corporation of India shows the cumulative seed cotton (Kapas) arrivals in 2015-16 (August to July) season as at 19 June 2016 were around 5.4 million tonnes (lint equivalent), compared with 6.2 million tonnes by the same date in 2014-15.•
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US19.5 cents a pound in the week ending 22 June 2016, compared with US19.6 cents a pound in the previous week.•
Data from the Brazil Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade shows as at mid June 2016, the country exported around 4.2 million tonnes of raw sugar in the 2016-17 season (April to March), 28 per cent more than the volume shipped over the same period in 2015-16.•
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $256 a tonne in the week ending 22 June 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.•
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $275 a tonne in the week ending 22 June 2016, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.•
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $231 a tonne in the week ending 22 June 2016, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.•
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $520 a tonne in the week ending 20 June 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.•
The young cattle indicator price (330-400 kg live weight C3) averaged 582 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 17 June 2016, 3 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price increased by 9 per cent in New South Wales to average 633 cents a kilogram and increased by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 623 cents a kilogram.•
The lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2-4) averaged 630 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 17 June 2016, up 3 per cent on the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was up marginally in New South Wales at 603 cents a kilogram, and up by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 559 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator was up by 1 per cent to average 501 cents a kilogram.•
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 279 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 16 June 2016, up by 1 per cent on the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was up by 16 per cent on the previous week.•
Wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 18 June 2016, compared with the previous week. The price of strawberry rose, while the prices of pineapple (smoothleaf) and kiwifruit (hayworth) fell. The prices of banana (cavendish), watermelon (seedless), apple (royal gala) and avocado (hass) were largely unchanged.•
Wholesale prices of selected vegetable were mixed in the week ending 18 June, compared with the previous week. The prices of tomato (gourmet), lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) rose, while the prices of cauliflower and broccoli fell. Prices remained largely unchanged for onion (brown), potato (white, brushed) and pumpkin (grey bulk).8
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Selected domestic crop indicator prices
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3.5. Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
• Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
• Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
• Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
• Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
• Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
• Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
• Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/
Water
New South Wales
• New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
• New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination Queensland
• Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
• Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
• SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report
• South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
• Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
• Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
• The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
• Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
• Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
• Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
• Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
