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3 March 2016
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 2 March 2016, rainfall was recorded in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, parts of coastal New South Wales, along the south coast of South Australia and southwest Victoria, and in Tasmania.
For the week ending 1 March 2016 maximum temperatures were above average across most of Australia. A number of daily maximum temperature records were broken in western
Queensland this week, with maximum temperatures between 4 and 8 degrees above average for this time of year.
Rainfall in February 2016 was generally below average for much of Australia and in all States and Territories, with New South Wales recording its driest February since 1978.
Rainfall in summer 2015–2016 (December 2015 to February 2016) was average to well above average over much of Australia.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is expected over much of Australia.
Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely for northern Queensland, much of the Northern Territory, northern and parts of southern Western Australia and western South Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 3 March 2016 by 189 gigalitres (GL), to 7 640 GL and are at 34 per cent of total capacity.
The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 581 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 26 February 2016, 4 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price: increased by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 589 cents a kilogram and fell by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 547 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 535 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 26 February 2016, up marginally on the previous week.
Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was up by 1 per cent in New South Wales at 534 cents a kilogram, and up by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 513 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator fell by 5 per cent to average 488 cents a kilogram.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$200 a tonne in the week ending 1 March 2016, compared with US$205 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $231 a tonne in the week ending
2 March2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 2 March 2016,rainfall was recorded in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, parts of coastal New South Wales, along the south coast of South Australia and south-west Victoria, and in Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 192 millimetres at Boat Harbour, in northern New South Wales.
The interior and parts of the west coast of Western Australia, parts of the southwest and southeast of the Northern Territory, western and southern Queensland, and much of New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria recorded little or no rainfall this week.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Rainfall for the week ending 2 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 02/03/2016
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 1 March 2016 maximum temperatures were above average across most of Australia. A number of daily maximum temperature records were broken in western Queensland this week, with maximum temperatures between 4 and 8 degrees above average for this time of year. The Top End of the Northern Territory also recorded its hottest February on record.
Minimum temperatures were generally average to above average across much of Australia during the week ending 1 March 2016. Minimum temperatures were between 2 and 6 degrees above average in areas of New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 1 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 02/03/2016
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 1 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 02/03/2016
4 1.3. Monthly rainfall
Spatial rainfall percentile analyses are based on historical monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These rainfall percentile maps show how rainfall recorded during that given time period compared with the rainfall recorded for that same period during the entire historical record (1900 to present).
Rainfall percentiles are a way of providing an indication of the spread of data in a data set. To calculate percentiles, the entire rainfall record at a certain point is divided into one hundred equal parts. The 5th percentile for February 2016 means that only five per cent of all Februarys in the historical record have recorded a rainfall total that is at or below the rainfall recorded during February 2016. Dark blue areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the entire historical record, and dark red areas are drier.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Rainfall in February 2016 was generally below average for much of Australia and in all States and Territories, with New South Wales recording its driest February since 1978. There were large areas of severely deficient to well below average rainfall over northern Australia and much of New South Wales, eastern Victoria and northern South Australia. In contrast, there were isolated areas which recorded extremely high rainfall in central Queensland, southern South Australia and south-east Western Australia.
Rainfall percentiles for February 2016
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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Rainfall in summer 2015–2016 (December 2015 to February 2016) was average to well above average over much of Australia. Rainfall was extremely high across much of southern Western Australia, parts of northern and western South Australia and eastern Northern Territory. However, rainfall was below average across parts of northern Western Australia, the top end of the Northern Territory, far north Queensland and some areas of northern New South Wales, central Victoria, South Australia and western Tasmania.
Rainfall percentiles for summer 2015–2016 (December 2015 to February 2016)
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
6 1.4. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is expected over much of Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely for northern Queensland, much of the Northern Territory, northern and parts of southern Western Australia and western South Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres have been forecast for areas along the north-east coast of Queensland.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 3 March to 10 March 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 02/03/2016
1.5. ENSO Wrap-up
Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific associated with the 2015–16 El Niño have cooled to moderate levels, and are likely reach more neutral levels in the second quarter of 2016. History and climate model outlooks indicate that neutral conditions are slightly favoured ahead of La Niña for the second half of 2016. Short term fluctuations in the various El Niño Indicators will continue, particularly during the southern tropical cyclone season.
The past fortnight has seen sea surface and below-surface cooling in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The Nino3.4 index, a key El Niño Indicator, is now below +2 °C for the first time since September 2015, suggesting moderate El Niño levels. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index remains negative at moderate levels. A recent temporary weakening of the trade winds has only slightly slowed the decline of El Niño.
Although the 2015–16 El Niño is weakening, it will continue to influence global climate during the southern hemisphere autumn. In Australia, the breakdown of strong El Niño events has historically brought average to above average rainfall to many locations. However, northern Australia typically sees less rainfall than usual.
Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 3 March 2016 by 189 gigalitres (GL), to 7 640 GL and are at 34 per cent of total capacity. This is 10 percentage points or 2 247 GL less than at the same time last year.
2.2. Water storages
Changes in regional water storage for February 2016 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graphs below (current at 3 March 2016).
Region
Total capacity (GL)
Current volume (GL)
Current volume (%)
Monthly change (GL)
Monthly change (%)
Annual change (GL)
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) 22559 7640 34 -643 -3 -2247
Murray-Darling Basin Authority
(MDBA) 9352 2834 28 -331 -4 -1422
Queensland MDB 186 129 69 8 4 -19
Central Queensland 3154 2498 79 706 22 -341
South-east Queensland 3517 2438 69 161 5 -261
New South Wales MDB 13884 3918 28 -404 -3 127
Coastal New South Wales 1074 939 87 -7 -1 40
Victoria MDB 8488 3593 42 -247 -3 -2355
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 3 March 2016 is shown
above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
8 Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin by state (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
2.3. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2015–16 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
In New South Wales, general security allocations increased by 1 percentage point in the Murrumbidgee system.
Allocations at 3 March 2016 (%) 18 February 2016 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley 23* 97 23* 97
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 37* 95 36* 95
NSW Lower Darling 0* 75 0* 75
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 7* 100 7* 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley 25 100 25 100
NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Upper Namoi 60* 100 60* 100
NSW Gwydir Valley 5.28* 100 5.28* 100
NSW Border Rivers 100 a / 26.56 b 100 100 a / 26.56 b 100
NSW Peel Valley 17* 100 17* 100
Victoria Low
reliability
High reliability
Low reliability
High reliability
Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 100
Victoria Goulburn 0 90 0 90
Victoria Campaspe 0 64 0 64
Victoria Loddon 0 80 0 80
Victoria Bullarook 0 8 0 8
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Allocations at 3 March 2016 (%) 18 February 2016 (%)
Victoria Broken 0 26 0 26
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$200 a tonne in the week ending 1 March 2016, compared with US$205 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) was US$156 a tonne in the week ending 2 March 2016, compared with US$159 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) was US$385 a tonne in the week ending 1 March 2016, compared with US$395 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US65 cents a pound in the week ending 1 March 2016, the lowest weekly price in more than 6 years. The previous low was US64.8 cents a pound recorded in the week ending 30 September 2009.
Data from China Customs shows that China imported 434 000 tonnes of raw cotton in the first five months of 2015–16 (August to July) season, compared with 765 000 tonnes imported by the same period in 2014–15.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged around US14.4 cents a pound in the week ending 2 march 2016, 9 per cent higher than in the previous week.
Preliminary data from the Brazil Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade shows the country exported around 23 million tonnes of sugar (raw value equivalent) in the first eleven months of 2015–16 (April to March) season, compared with 22.4 million tonnes shipped in the same period during 2014–15.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $268 a tonne in the week ending 2 March 2016, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $231 a tonne in the week ending 2 March 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $508 a tonne in the week ending 29 February 2016, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.
The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 581 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 26 February 2016, 4 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle price: increased by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 589 cents a kilogram and fell by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 547 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 535 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 26 February 2016, up marginally on the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was up by 1 per cent in New South Wales at 534 cents a kilogram, and up by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 513 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator fell by 5 per cent to average 488 cents a kilogram.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of anhydrous milk fat fell by 8 per cent to US$3 254 a tonne on 1 March 2016 compared with US$3 527 a tonne on 16 February 2016. Over the same period: the whole milk powder and skim milk powder prices rose by 4 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, while the cheddar cheese price remained largely unchanged.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 268 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 25 February 2016, down 1 per cent from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was up 10 per cent from the previous week.
Wholesale prices of selected fruit were mostly down in the week ending 27 February 2016, compared with the previous week. Wholesale prices for banana (cavendish), watermelon (seedless), blueberry, kiwifruit, strawberry and avocado (hass) fell. The price for apple (royal gala) remained unchanged.
Wholesale prices of selected vegetable were mixed in the week ending 27 February 2016, compared with the previous week. The price of broccoli rose. Prices for tomato (field gourmet) and bean (round, stringless) fell.The prices of onion (brown), potato (white, brushed), lettuce (iceberg) and pumpkin (grey bulk) were unchanged.
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3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
