Summary of key issues •

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25 August 2016

The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues

• During the week ending 24 August 2016, rainfall was recorded in much of eastern, central and south-western Australia, and Tasmania.

• For the week ending 23 August 2016, maximum temperatures were close to average across much of Australia, while minimum temperatures were above average in northern Australia and below average in south-western Australia.

• The latest ‘National Climate Outlook’ released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average rainfall for much of Australia during spring (September to November 2016). Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across much of Australia and Tasmania, with the exception of parts of eastern Australia and far southern Western Australia where there are equal chances of above or below average maximum and minimum temperatures.

• The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is expected across much of western, central and southern Australia.

• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 418 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 25 August 2016 to 13 787 GL, and are at 61 per cent of total capacity—the highest storage level in over 21 months.

• The young cattle indicator price (330–400kg live weight C3) averaged 693 cents a kilogram in New South Wales in the week ending 19 August 2016, 3 per cent lower than the previous week. The price was largely unchanged in Victoria.

• The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 598 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 19 August 2016, down 4 per cent on the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was down by 7 per cent in New South Wales at 591 cents a

kilogram, and down by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 571 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator was down marginally to 504 cents a kilogram.

• The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was

US$194 a tonne in the week ending 23 August 2016, compared with US$192 a tonne in the previous week.

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1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

For the week ending 24 August 2016, rainfall totals exceeding 15 millimetres were recorded in south-western Western Australia, central and south-eastern South Australia, and eastern parts of the Northern Territory. Similar totals were recorded in central, southern and coastal Queensland and much of New South Wales, Victoria and western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 222 millimetres at Russell River, south of Cairns.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Rainfall for the week ending 24 August 2016

©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 24/08/2016

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 23 August 2016, maximum temperatures were close to average across much of Australia. Parts of the Northern Territory recorded maximum temperatures between 2°C and 4°C above average, while parts of southern Western Australia recorded maximum temperatures between 2°C and 4°C below average.

Minimum temperatures were above average across northern Australia and below average in parts of southern Western Australia for the week ending 23 August 2016. Most of Queensland and the Northern Territory recorded minimum temperatures between 2°C and 8°C above average. In contrast, parts of southern Western Australia recorded minimum temperatures between 2°C and 4°C below average for this time of year.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 23 August 2016

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 23 August 2016

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high- resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

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1.3. National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/

The current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is expected to weaken over spring. This means its influence on Australian rainfall is likely to decrease in the coming months.

The El Niño—Southern Oscillation is neutral, with sea surface temperatures showing a cooling trend since late last year. In periods when La Niña is developing or near thresholds, some areas experience La Niña-like impacts, including above average rainfall across northern Australia.

With major climate drivers either weakening or in a neutral state, the rainfall outlooks show roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier spring.

The September 2016 rainfall outlook indicates that there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than normal conditions for much of Australia. Rainfall in parts of northern Western Australia, southern New South Wales and southern Tasmania are likely to be above average, while parts of south-eastern Western Australia have a low to moderate chance of exceeding the median rainfall during September 2016 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 25 August 2016).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September 2016

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5 The rainfall outlook for the period September to November 2016 indicates that there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average rainfall for much of Australia. However, in parts of northern Australia there is a moderate to high chance of above median rainfall during this 3 month period. Historical outlook accuracy for September to November is moderate to high over most of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 25 August 2016).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September to November 2016

The September to November 2016 temperature outlook indicates a moderate to high chance of above median maximum temperatures and above median minimum temperatures across much of mainland Australia and Tasmania. The exception is eastern Australia and the far southern coast of Western Australia, where there are equal chances that maximum and minimum temperatures will exceed the median (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 25 August 2016).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature September to November 2016

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6 Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature

September to November 2016

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1.4. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is expected across much of western, central and southern Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of southern New South Wales, eastern South Australia and most of Victoria. Similar totals are expected in south-western and eastern Western Australia, south-western parts of the Northern Territory and western Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 25 August to 1 September 2016

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2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 418 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 25 August 2016 to 13 787 GL, and are at 61 per cent of total capacity—the highest in over 21 months. This water storage level is 14 percentage points or 3 082 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 25 August 2016 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities

• The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$194 a tonne in the week ending 23 August 2016, compared with US$192 a tonne in the previous week.

• The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) was US$153 a tonne in the week ending 24 August 2016, compared with US$151 a tonne in the previous week.

• The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) was US$426 a tonne in the week ending 23 August 2016, compared with US$410 a tonne in the previous week.

• The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US78.1 cents a pound in the week ending 24 August 2016, 2 per cent lower than in the previous week.

• The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US20.2 cents a pound in the week ending 24 August 2016, 2 per cent higher than in the previous week.

• The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 298 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 18 August 2016, up marginally on the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was down by 21 per cent on the previous week.

• The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $206 a tonne in the week ending 24 August 2016, 6 per cent lower than the previous week.

• The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $231 a tonne in the week ending 24 August 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

• The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $183 a tonne in the week ending 24 August 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.

• The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $505 a tonne in the week ending 24 August 2016, 4 per cent higher than the previous week.

• The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder rose by 19 per cent to US$2 695 a tonne on 16 August 2016 compared with US$2 265 a tonne on 2 August 2016. Over the same period, the anhydrous milk fat and cheddar cheese prices both rose by 9 per, and the skim milk powder price rose by 3 per cent.

• The young cattle indicator price (330–400kg live weight C3) averaged 693 cents a kilogram in New South Wales in the week ending 19 August 2016, 3 per cent lower than the previous week. The price was largely unchanged in Victoria.

• The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 598 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 19 August 2016, down 4 per cent on the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was down by 7 per cent in New South Wales at 591 cents a kilogram, and down by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 571 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator price was down marginally at 504 cents a kilogram.

• Wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 20 August 2016, compared with the previous week. The prices of banana (cavendish) and avocado (hass) rose, while the prices of pineapple (smoothleaf), kiwifruit (hayward) and strawberry fell. The prices of watermelon (seedless), blueberry and apple (royal gala) were largely unchanged.

• Wholesale prices of selected vegetable were mixed in the week ending 20 August 2016, compared with the previous week. The prices of onion (brown) and lettuce (iceberg) rose, while the prices of cauliflower, tomato (gourmet), broccoli and bean (round, stringless) fell. The prices of potato (white, brushed) and pumpkin (grey bulk) remained largely unchanged.

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3.2. Selected world indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Selected domestic crop indicator prices

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3.5. Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

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1 The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) not available for week ending 19 August 2016.

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3.6. Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices

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4. Data attribution

Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

• Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

• Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

• Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

• Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

• Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/

Water

New South Wales

• New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

• New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:

http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination Queensland

• Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

• Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia

• SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report

• South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria

• Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

• Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

• The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton and lambs

• Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs

• Australian Pork Limited: www.australianpork.com.au Canola

• Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy

• Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/