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7 May 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 6 May 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, southern and eastern Australia.
Maximum temperatures were largely average over much of Australia during the week ending 5 May 2015, while minimum temperatures were below average in northern Australia and above average across parts of eastern Australia.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for April 2015 was above average across much of western, southern and eastern Australia, and below average over much of central and northern Australia and parts of Victoria and Tasmania.
The spatial extent and severity of rainfall deficiencies have increased across northern Queensland and western Tasmania for the 10-month period (July 2014 to April 2015).
The area affected by serious and severe rainfall deficiencies for the 31-month period (October 2012 to April 2015) have increased in extent and severity in northern and central inland Queensland and western Tasmania.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to the far south of Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by
13 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3186 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$224 a tonne in the week ending 5 May 2015, compared with US$231 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 6 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 431 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 1 May 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices remained largely unchanged in New South Wales and Victoria at an average 472 cents a kilogram and 448 cents a kilogram, respectively.
Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the
states in the week ending 1 May 2015, compared with the previous week. In Western Australia
the indicator price rose by 6 per cent to average 532 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) while
the price remained largely unchanged in South Australia at an average 527 cents a kilogram. In
contrast, the indicator price declined by 1 per cent in New South Wales and Victoria to average
560 cents a kilogram and 557 cents a kilogram, respectively.
2
1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 6 May 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, southern and eastern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded across south eastern Queensland, north eastern New South Wales, most of Tasmania, and parts of western and southern Western Australia. The highest recorded rainfall total was 376 millimetres near Caboolture in southeast Queensland.
While rainfall received this week has largely benefited crop and livestock producers across much of south east Queensland and north eastern New South Wales, a number of coastal communities have recorded damage to crops and infrastructure as a result of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Sugar, soybean and horticultural crops are among those most affected, with reports of heavy rainfall in excess of 200 millimetres washing away crops and causing significant loss of soil and fences, and strong winds damaging sugarcane and tree crops in a number of regions.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 6 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 6/05/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were above average over parts of northern and south eastern Australia during the week ending 5 May 2015. Isolated areas of central New South Wales recorded temperatures between 4 and 6 degrees above average for this time of year. Maximum temperatures were slightly below average in parts of north-western Western Australia and south eastern Queensland.
Minimum temperatures were below average over much of central and northern Australia, and above average in eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia during the week ending 5 May 2015. Some parts in northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory recorded temperatures between 4 and 8 degrees below average for this time of year. Isolated areas in eastern New South Wales recorded temperatures between 4 and 6 degrees above average for this time of the year.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 5 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 6/05/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 5 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 6/05/2015
4 1.3. Monthly rainfall
Spatial rainfall percentile analyses are based on historical monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These rainfall percentile maps show how rainfall recorded during that given time period compare with the rainfall recorded for that same given period during the entire historical record (1900 to present). Rainfall percentiles are a way of providing an indication of the spread of data in a data set. To calculate percentiles, the entire rainfall record at certain point is divided into one hundred equal parts. The 5th percentile for April 2015 means that only five percent of all Aprils in the historical record have recorded a rainfall total that is at or below the value recorded during April 2015. Dark blue areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the entire historical record, and dark red areas are drier.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
April 2015 rainfall was largely average across Australia as a whole, however regional totals were highly variable, ranging from severely deficient to extremely high. Isolated areas of severely deficient rainfall were recorded in western, northern and central Australia, while Tasmania recorded its fifth-driest April on record.
Rainfall was above to extremely high across much of New South Wales, extending into East Gippsland in Victoria, parts of southern Queensland, and covering most of eastern South Australia and the West Coast District of South Australia. Large areas of Western Australia also received above average rainfall, extending from the Pilbara through the interior to the central south coast and also in much of the South West Land Division.
Rainfall percentiles for April 2015
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
5 1.4. Recent soil moisture percentiles
The maps below show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (0 to 0.2 metres) soil moisture and lower layer (0.2 to 1.5 metres) soil moisture during April 2015. These maps show how modelled soil conditions during April 2015 compare with April conditions modelled during the 30 year reference period (1961 to 1990).
Dark green areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the 1961- 1990 reference period, and dark brown areas are drier.
The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 0.3 metres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.2 metres) is therefore the most appropriate indication of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated events over longer time periods.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for April 2015 was above average across much of western, southern and eastern Australia, and below average over much of central and northern Australia and parts of Victoria and Tasmania. Across cropping regions in Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia relative upper layer soil moisture was predominantly average to above average. Across cropping regions in Victoria relative upper layer soil moisture was variable, ranging well below average to above average.
Upper layer soil moisture for April 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
Relative lower layer soil moisture for April 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across much of western and central Australia. Across the central Queensland cropping region relative lower layer soil moisture was largely above average. Extremely low relative lower layer soil moisture in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions has contracted in spatial extent since March 2015. Southern New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia show variable relative lower layer soil moisture, although levels continue to tend toward below average. Meanwhile, relative lower layer soil moisture levels remain above average across much of South Australia.
6 Lower layer soil moisture for April 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
7 1.5. Rainfall deficiencies
Compared with the previous drought statement issued on 8 April 2015, the spatial extent and severity of rainfall deficiencies have increased across the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland and western Tasmania for the 10-month period (July 2014 to April 2015). Rainfall deficiencies have eased in parts of coastal South Australia as a result of above average rainfall during April. Rainfall deficiencies remain largely unchanged in south eastern South Australia and Western Australia, with some easing of rainfall deficiencies across north western Victoria and New South Wales. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 6 May 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 July 2014 to 30 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 04/05/2015
The area affected by serious and severe rainfall deficiencies for the 31-month period (October 2012 to April 2015) have slightly increased in severity in northern and central inland Queensland and in small parts of coastal western Tasmania, when compared with the previous drought statement issued on 8 April 2015.
Elsewhere, deficiencies remain similar to those reported for the preceding 30-month period in the previous drought statement (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 6 May 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 October 2012 to 30 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 04/05/2015
8 1.6. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to Victoria, Tasmania, southern Western Australia and South Australia and parts of south eastern New South Wales.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 7 to 14 May 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 7/05/2015
9
2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 13 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3186 GL less than this time last year.
2.2. Water storages
Changes in regional water storage for April 2015 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graphs below (current at 7 May 2015).
Region
Total capacity
(GL)
Current volume (GL)
Current volume
(%)
Monthly change
(GL)
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change (GL)
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) 22559 8740 39 -68 0 -3186
Murray-Darling Basin Authority
(MDBA) 9352 3556 35 -28 0 -1560
Queensland MDB 186 147 79 4 2 3
Central Queensland 3154 2596 82 -183 -6 -503
South-east Queensland 3517 2636 75 -16 0 230
New South Wales MDB 13884 3181 23 135 1 -2085
Coastal New South Wales 1074 892 83 19 2 -81
Victoria MDB 8488 5411 64 -207 -2 -1103
Water storages in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria
The blue line indicates the extent of the Murray–Darling Basin. The shaded areas denote the coverage of the individual reporting regions.
10 Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 7 May 2015 is shown above.
The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin by state (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$224 a tonne in the week ending 5 May 2015, compared with US$231 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$168 a tonne in the week ending 6 May 2015, compared with US$169 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$419 a tonne in the week ending 5 May 2015, compared with US$411 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US74.1 cents a pound in the week ending 6 May 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US12.8 cents a pound in the week ending 6 May 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association indicates that, as at 30 April 2015, India produced around 27.4 million tonnes of refined sugar in the 2014–15 season (October to September), 14 per cent higher than by the same date a year ago.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1172 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 30 April 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 4 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 6 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $296 a tonne in the week ending 6 May 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $282 a tonne in the week ending 6 May 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $471 a tonne in the week ending 6 May 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 431 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 1 May 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices remained largely unchanged in New South Wales and Victoria at an average 472 cents a kilogram and 448 cents a kilogram, respectively.
Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the states in the week ending 1 May 2015, compared with the previous week. In Western Australia the indicator price rose by 6 per cent to average 532 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) while the price remained largely unchanged in South Australia at an average 527 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price declined by 1 per cent in New South Wales and Victoria to average 560 cents a kilogram and 557 cents a kilogram, respectively.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of skim milk powder was US$2048 a tonne on 5 May 2015, compared with US$2253 a tonne on 15 April 2015. Over the same period, the prices of anhydrous milk fat and whole milk powder fell by 6 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. In contrast, the price of cheddar cheese rose by 4 per cent.
The wholesale prices of selected fruits generally fell in the week ending 2 May 2015 compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf), watermelon (seedless), blueberry and avocado (hass) were lower while the price of strawberry was sharply higher.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 2 May 2015 compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of broccoli, cauliflower and tomato (field gourmet) were lower while the prices of lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) were higher.12
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
