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12 November 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 11 November 2015, rainfall was recorded in all states and territories of Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded across large areas of northern and southern Australia.
Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of Australia during the week ending 10 November 2015, while parts of western and northern Australia recorded slightly below average temperatures.
According to the latest ‘Drought Statement’ released by the Bureau of Meteorology, over the 16-month period from July 2014 to October 2015 and the 37-month period from October 2012 to October 2015, rainfall deficiencies have generally increased in extent or severity in all affected regions identified in the previous drought statement.
An updated bushfire outlook issued by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC indicates that a greater area of south-east Australia is now expected to experience above normal fire
conditions.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely across large areas of northern and eastern Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 11 November 2015 by 41 gigalitres (GL) and are at 45 per cent of total capacity.
In New South Wales, general security (B class) allocations increased in the Border Rivers catchment.
The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 566 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 6 November 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 5 per cent in New South Wales to average 584 cents a kilogram and fell by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 534 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 488 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 6 November 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price: rose by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 536 cents a kilogram; rose by 5 per cent in South Australia to average 504 cents a kilogram; and fell by 2 per cent in Western Australia to average 442 cents a kilogram.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$215 a tonne in the week ending 10 November 2015, compared with US$216 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending
11 November 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 11 November 2015, rainfall was recorded in all states and territories of Australia.
Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded across large areas of northern and eastern Queensland, much of New South Wales and Victoria, south-east South Australia, north eastern Tasmania, the western areas of the Northern Territory and parts of northern and southern Western Australia. The highest recorded rainfall total was 227 millimetres at Cannon Cove in south-east Queensland.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Rainfall for the week ending 11 November 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/11/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were slightly above average across much of Australia during the week ending 10 November 2015, with much of Western Australia, western areas of the Northern Territory and north- eastern New South Wales recording slightly below average temperatures.
Minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of Australia during the week ending 10 November 2015, while some isolated areas of northern Australia recorded slightly below average temperatures for this time of year.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 November 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/11/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 November 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/11/2015
4 1.3. Rainfall deficiencies
For the 16-month period from July 2014 to October 2015, deficiencies have generally increased in extent or severity in all affected regions, when compared to the previous ‘Drought Statement’. In southern Australia, the substantial area of lowest on record rainfall around the South Australian and Victorian border has increased spatially, with severe deficiencies spreading across most of Victoria and much of the southern coast and into north-west South Australia. Severe or serious deficiencies persist in a number of areas in northern and central Queensland, western and north-western Tasmania and on the west coast of south-west Western Australia.
(Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 November 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 July 2014 to 31 October 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 02/11/2015
Over the 37-month period from October 2012 to October 2015, rainfall deficiencies have increased slightly in extent and severity across all affected regions when compared to the previous ‘Drought Statement’. Serious or severe deficiencies persist in parts of northern, central and southern Queensland, and into northern New South Wales and southern Northern Territory. Rainfall deficiencies persist in an area spanning south-east South Australia and most of Victoria. Deficiencies also persist in parts of south-west Western Australia and the west and east coasts of Tasmania. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 November 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 October 2012 to 31 October 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 02/11/2015
5 1.4. Bushfire potential 2015-16
On 9 November 2015, the Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) released an update to its Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire outlook 2015-16. It suggests that spring has so far been
exceptionally dry across southern Australia, with record warm temperatures experienced across the country in October. The significant change in this Outlook is that more parts of South Australia and Tasmania are now expected to experience above normal fire conditions.
The bushfire potential has increased significantly enough in South Australia and Tasmania to warrant the updating of the national perspective. The below map reveals the updated bushfire outlook for southern Australia through to 2016. In New South Wales, ACT, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland, the Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook remains as previously described in Hazard Note 10.
For further information, go to http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/
Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire outlook 2015-16:
November update
Source: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC
6 1.5. Australia Plague Locust
The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) produces a monthly Locust Bulletin during the seasons of locust activity (spring, summer and autumn). The Bulletin gives regional summaries of the locust situation and weather events of potential significance for locust development. It also provides a forecast of likely
developments for the next two months (or from autumn to spring) for the Australian plague locust Chortoicetes terminifera, spur-throated locust Austracris guttulosa, and the migratory locust Locusta migratoria.
According to the APLC, the locust population did not increase much in October 2015, despite some hatching of nymphs in Central West New South Wales and adjacent regions. The numbers of nymphs consequently increased in these regions and have developed into localised medium to high density adult populations. Adult populations generally decreased to low densities in the arid/semi-arid eastern interior, while medium densities persisted in Central West Queensland.
The outlook to January 2016 is for localised areas of high density adult populations in Central West New South Wales and surrounding areas. Low densities are expected to persist in the other regions of eastern Australia, with no significant immediate population build up resulting from recent rainfall.
For further information, go to http://www.agriculture.gov.au/pests-diseases-weeds/locusts/
Australian Plague Locust Distribution 13 October to 5 November 2015
Densities estimated for areas of locust habitat, based on current surveys.
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources Issued: 06/11/2015
7 1.6. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely across much of northern and eastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, the north-east coast of Tasmania, the Top End of the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 12 to 19 November 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/11/2015
1.7. ENSO Wrap-up
The latest ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ release by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) indicates that it has been six months since the current El Niño event became established in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During this time, oceanic and atmospheric indicators have been persistently strong, with most international climate models surveyed by BoM suggesting that the peak in El Niño sea surface temperatures is likely to occur before the end of the year, and then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016.
Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are now around 2.4 °C above average, the largest anomaly for the current event so far. Other indicators of El Niño, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds, still reflect strong El Niño conditions, despite some weakening in the SOI over the past fortnight.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event also persists. This event has been in place for over three months, with most international climate models surveyed by BoM expecting the positive IOD to break down during November and early December. More broadly, Indian Ocean temperatures remain very warm: the October sea surface temperatures anomaly for the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean was the highest positive anomaly for any month on record.
El Niño is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and increased spring daytime temperatures south of the tropics. A positive IOD typically reinforces the drying pattern, particularly in the southeast. During summer, El Niño's influence on rainfall decreases, while warmer daytime and night-time temperatures continue to be more likely across the south and east.
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 11 November 2015 by 41 gigalitres (GL) and are at 45 per cent of total capacity. This is 15 percentage points or 3 409 GL less than at the same time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 11 November 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
9 2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2015–16 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
In New South Wales, general security (B class) allocations increased in the Border Rivers catchment.
Allocations at 12 November 2015 (%) 5 November 2015 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley 13* 97 13* 97
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 29* 95 29* 95
NSW Lower Darling 0* 20 0* 20
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 7* 100 7* 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley 25 100 25 100
NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Upper Namoi 60* 100 60* 100
NSW Gwydir Valley 5.28* 100 5.28* 100
NSW Border Rivers 100 a / 10.26 b 100 100 a / 9 b 100
NSW Peel Valley 17* 100 17* 100
Victoria Low
reliability
High reliability
Low reliability
High reliability
Victoria Murray Valley 0 85 0 85
Victoria Goulburn 0 75 0 75
Victoria Campaspe 0 52 0 52
Victoria Loddon 0 56 0 56
Victoria Bullarook 0 4 0 4
Victoria Broken 0 9 0 9
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$215 a tonne in the week ending 10 November 2015, compared with US$216 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$167 a tonne in the week ending 11 November 2015, compared with US$174 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$415 a tonne in the week ending 10 November 2015, compared with US$424 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US68.8 cents a pound in the week ending 11 November 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from China Customs indicates that China imported around 1.7 million tonnes of cotton yarn (minimum 85 per cent cotton, by weight) in the first nine months of 2015, 28 per cent higher than the same period a year ago.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US14.5 cents a pound in the week ending 11 November 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.
Data from Brazil’s Sugar Industry Association indicates that as at 1 November 2015, around 520 million tonnes of sugar cane had been crushed in Brazil’s Central South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane) in the 2015-16 season (April to March), compared with around 515 million tonnes over the same period a year ago. Compared with the same time last year, sugar production over the same period fell by around 7 per cent while ethanol production rose by around 2 per cent.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 11 November 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $300 a tonne in the week ending 11 November 2015, 4 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $254 a tonne in the week ending 11 November 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $565 a tonne in the week ending 9 November 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 566 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 6 November 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 5 per cent in New South Wales to average 584 cents a kilogram and fell by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 534 cents a kilogram.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 488 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 6 November 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price: rose by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 536 cents a kilogram;rose by 5 per cent in South Australia to average 504 cents a kilogram; and fell by 2 per cent in Western Australia to average 442 cents a kilogram.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 234 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 5 November 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 2 per cent lower than the previous week.11
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
