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22 September 2016
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 21 September 2016, rainfall was recorded across most of north-central and eastern Australia and areas of southern Australia.
Unseasonably heavy rainfall has been recorded across much of the Northern Territory and
Queensland during the past week. As a result of these unseasonably heavy falls, large areas of the Northern Territory, and western and southern Queensland have reached rainfall totals for
September to suggest the northern rainfall onset has occurred. This is up to four months earlier than normal in some regions.
Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally below average across much of central and southern Australia for the week ending 20 September 2016. Parts of northern Australia recorded minimum temperatures above average for this time of year.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is expected across areas of southern Australia and scattered areas of central and northern Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding
15 millimetres are forecast for most of New South Wales and Victoria, scattered areas of southern Queensland, south and north-eastern South Australia, the far south-west of Western Australia, the south-eastern corner of the Northern Territory and most of Tasmania.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 992 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 22 September 2016 to 16 979 GL, and are at 75 per cent of total capacity—the highest in over 33 months.
In New South Wales, general security allocations increased in the Border Rivers (B class), Murray, Murrumbidgee, Lower Darling, Lower Namoi, Gwydir, Peel Valley systems. In Victoria, high
reliability allocations increased in all systems except the Bullarook and Broken systems which were already at 100 per cent. Low reliability allocations increased in the Broken system.
The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 631 cents a kilogram in Queensland in the week ending 16 September 2016, 9 per cent lower than the previous average sale price.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 585 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 16 September 2016, up 1 per cent from the previous week.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$193 a
tonne in the week ending 20 September 2016, up 6 per cent from the previous week.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
For the week ending 21 September 2016, rainfall was recorded across most of north-central and eastern Australia and parts of southern Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimetres were recorded across north-western and eastern Victoria, south-eastern South Australia, Tasmania, southern and western Queensland and most of New South Wales and the Northern Territory. Similar totals were recorded in the far south-west of Western Australia. The highest recorded weekly total was 297 millimetres at Thredbo in the Kosciuszko National Park, south-eastern New South Wales.
Unseasonably heavy rainfall has been recorded across much of the Northern Territory and Queensland during the last week. A broad swathe of Australia’s tropical region recorded falls of between 50 and 100 millimetres. Many sites observed record September daily rainfall totals and many more sites are on track to have their highest September rainfall on record. This part of northern Australia typically sees rainfall totals of between 5 to 20 millimetres during September.
As a result of these unseasonably heavy falls, large areas of the Northern Territory, and western and southern Queensland have reached rainfall totals for September to suggest the northern rainfall onset has occurred. This is up to four months earlier than normal in some regions. The northern rainfall onset occurs when enough rainfall has fallen to stimulate plant growth after the dry season.
This is defined as the date when at least 50 millimetres has accumulated after 1 September.
This unusually heavy rainfall was driven by a combination of weather and climate factors. A series of low-pressure troughs have drawn in moisture provided by the very warm waters off Australia’s northwest. This is occurring as a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) combines with a La Niña–
like pattern in the Pacific Ocean, increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall for northern Australia in the September to November period.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
Rainfall for the week ending 21 September 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 21/09/2016
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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 20 September 2016, maximum temperatures were below average across much of central and southern Australia. Parts of south-eastern Northern Territory, western Queensland and north-eastern South Australia recorded maximum temperatures between 6°C and 10°C below average for this time of year.
Minimum temperatures were generally below average for south-western Australia and above average for north-eastern Australia for the week ending 20 September 2016. Scattered areas around southern Queensland and the Northern Territory recorded minimum temperatures between 6°C and 8°C above average for this time of year.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 20 September 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 21/09/2016
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 20 September 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 21/09/2016
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high- resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
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1.3. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is expected across areas of southern Australia and scattered areas of central and northern Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding
15 millimetres are forecast for most of New South Wales and Victoria, scattered areas of southern Queensland, south and north-eastern South Australia, the far south-west of Western Australia, the south-eastern corner of the Northern Territory and most of Tasmania.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 22 to 29 September 2016
©Commonwealth of Australia 2016, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/09/2016
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 992 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 22 September 2016 to 16 979 GL, and are at 75 per cent of total capacity—the highest in over 33 months. This water storage level is 26 percentage points or 5 831 GL more than at the same time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 22 September 2016 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
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2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2016–17 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victorian and South Australian water systems are summarised in the following table.
In New South Wales, general security allocations increased in the Border Rivers (B class), Murray, Murrumbidgee, Lower Darling, Lower Namoi, Gwydir, Peel Valley systems.
In Victoria, high reliability allocations increased in all systems except the Bullarook and Broken systems which were already at 100 per cent. Low reliability allocations increased in the Broken system.
Allocations at 22 September 2016 (%) 15 September 2016 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley * 42 97 30 97
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley * 61 95 54 95
NSW Lower Darling * 50 100 0 100
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley * 100 100 100 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley * 124 100 124 100
NSW Lower Namoi * 59 100 38.32 100
NSW Upper Namoi * 100 100 100 100
NSW Gwydir Valley * 32.51 100 20.70 100
NSW Border Rivers * 28.5 a / 39.9 b 100 28.5 a / 0 b 100
NSW Peel Valley 100 100 44 100
Victoria Low
reliability *
High reliability *
Low reliability *
High reliability *
Victoria Murray Valley 0 83 0 61
Victoria Goulburn 0 73 0 57
Victoria Campaspe 0 100 0 70
Victoria Loddon 0 73 0 57
Victoria Bullarook 100 100 100 100
Victoria Broken 14 100 0 100
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) was US$193 a tonne in the week ending 20 September 2016, compared with US$183 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) was US$151 a tonne in the week ending 21 September 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) was US$421 a tonne in the week ending 20 September 2016, compared with US$425 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US77.4 cents a pound in the week ending 21 September 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US21.7 cents a pound in the week ending 21 September 2016, compared with 20.2 cents a pound in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $204 a tonne in the week ending 21 September 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $231 a tonne in the week ending 21 September 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $178 a tonne in the week ending 21 September 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $488 a tonne in the week ending 19 September 2016, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.
The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 631 cents a kilogram in Queensland in the week ending 16 September 2016, 9 per cent lower than the previous average sale price. Over the same period, the young cattle price rose 3 per cent to 710 cents a kilogram in New South Wales and rose by 1 per cent to average 700 cents a kilogram in Victoria.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of anhydrous milk fat rose by 5 per cent to US$4 998 a tonne on 20 September 2016 compared with US$4 769 a tonne on 6 September 2016. Over the same period, the skim milk powder and cheddar cheese prices rose by 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, while whole milk powder prices were largely unchanged.
The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 585 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 16 September 2016, up 1 per cent from the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price was up by 3 per cent in New South Wales at 629 cents a kilogram, and down by 5 per cent in South Australia to average 561 cents a kilogram. In Western Australia, the indicator was largely unchanged at 436 cents a kilogram.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 311 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 15 September 2016, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was down by 10 per cent from the previous week.
Wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 17 September 2016, compared with the previous week. The prices of watermelon (seedless) and avocado (hass) rose, while the prices of banana (cavendish), blueberry, kiwifruit (hayward) and strawberry fell. The prices of pineapple (smoothleaf) and apple (royal gala) were largely unchanged.
Wholesale prices of selected vegetable were mixed in the week ending 17 September, compared with the previous week. The prices of onion (brown) and cauliflower rose, while the prices of tomato (gourmet), broccoli, lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) fell. The prices of potato (white, brushed) and pumpkin (grey bulk) were largely unchanged.8
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Selected domestic crop indicator prices
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3.5. Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices – Week ended 17 September 2016
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
Soil moisture: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model) www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register: http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/water-licensing/registers
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow- report
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets Cattle, mutton and lambs
Meat and Livestock Australia: http://www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork Limited: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/
