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12 February 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 11 February 2015 rainfall was recorded across northern and eastern Australia.
Rainfall deficiencies have decreased in extent and severity over south-eastern Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and western Victoria for the 7 and 14-month periods.
Longer term (28-month) rainfall deficiencies persist across central and southern Queensland and smaller areas in adjacent parts of New South Wales. Long term rainfall deficiencies are still present in the central coast area of Western Australia and across inland western Victoria and south-east South Australia.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for January 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across much of eastern, northern and central Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by
320 gigalitres (GL) and are at 47 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2549 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$255 a tonne in the week ending 10 February 2015, compared with US$247 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $306 a tonne in the week ending 11 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 448 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 6 February 2015, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by around 5 per cent in New South Wales to average 450 cents a kilogram and by around 8 per cent in Victoria to average 420 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were higher in all states in the week ending 6 February 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest increase was in Victoria, where the indicator price rose by around 3 per cent to average 580 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). In other states, the indicator price rose by around 2 per cent in New South Wales and South Australia to average 562 cents a kilogram and 573 cents a kilogram, respectively. In Western Australia, the indicator price rose by around 2 per cent to average 500 cents a kilogram.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 11 February 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across northern and eastern Australia.
Rainfalls in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded across northern areas of Western Australia, the top end of the Northern Territory, across northern and coastal Queensland and coastal New South Wales. The highest recorded rainfall total was 506 millimetres at Mount Sophia, just south of Cairns in north Queensland.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 11 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/02/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were well above average in parts of Western Australia during the week ending 10 February 2015. While much of the remainder of the country recorded slightly above average temperatures, parts of eastern Queensland recorded slightly below average temperatures. Maximum temperatures in parts of southern Western Australia were between 8 and 10 degrees above the average.
Minimum temperatures were above average in southern Western Australia and parts of northern South Australia. Below average minimum temperatures were recorded over parts of northern, eastern and southern Australia during the week ending 10 February 2015.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/02/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/02/2015
4 1.3. Rainfall deficiencies
Above average January 2015 rainfall across much of south-eastern Australia has significantly reduced rainfall deficiencies for the 7-month period (July 2014 to January 2015) in north-western Victoria and adjacent parts of southern New South Wales and south-eastern South Australia. Rainfall deficiencies across north Queensland, the Top End and north-western Tasmania have also been reduced (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought
Statement’, 5 February 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 July 2014 to 31 January 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 04/02/2015
The area affected by serious and severe rainfall deficiencies for the 14-month period (December 2013 to January 2015) has also been substantially reduced in western Victoria, south-eastern Queensland and north- eastern New South Wales. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 February 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 December 2013 to 31 January 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 04/02/2015
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Rainfall deficiencies for the 28-month period (1 October 2012 to 31 January 2015) have reduced in areas of northern Queensland, Northern Territory and South Australia, but remain in an area spanning much of central Queensland and into northern New South Wales. Deficiencies also remain, despite being lessened, in much of central western Victoria, crossing into south-eastern South Australia. In coastal areas of the Gascoyne district in Western Australia deficiencies remain largely unchanged compared to the previous drought statement released in January 2015 by the Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 February 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 October 2012 to 31 January 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 04/02/2015
6 1.4. Recent soil moisture percentiles
The maps below show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (0 to 0.2 metres) soil moisture and lower layer (0.2 to 1.5 metres) soil moisture during January 2015. These maps show how modelled soil conditions during January 2015 compare with January conditions modelled during the 30 year reference period (1961 to 1990). Dark green areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the 1961-1990 reference period, and dark brown areas are drier.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for January 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across much of eastern, northern and central Australia. In Western Australia, relative upper layer soil moisture was variable ranging from extremely low in the south to extremely high in the north. Across summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales, relative upper layer soil moisture was predominantly well above average. This pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects rainfall received to the end of January 2015.
Upper layer soil moisture for January 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 0.3 metres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.2 metres) is therefore the most appropriate indication of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated events over longer time periods.
Relative lower layer soil moisture for January 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across much of northern and central Australia. Across the central Queensland cropping region relative lower layer soil moisture was largely average to above average, with largely below average to extremely low relative lower layer soil moisture in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions. Southern New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia show variable relative lower layer soil moisture, although levels tend toward below average. Meanwhile, relative lower layer soil moisture levels remain above average across much of South Australia.
7 Lower layer soil moisture for January 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
1.5. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is most likely to be restricted to the far north and the south-east of Australia. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres are likely to be recorded in the far north of the
Northern Territory, northern Queensland and parts of southern New South Wales, southern Victoria and northern Tasmania. Very heavy falls in excess of 400 millimetres have been forecast for Far North Queensland’s coastal regions.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 12 to 19 February 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/02/2015
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 320 gigalitres (GL) and are at 47 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2549 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 12 February 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
9 2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2014–15 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
• General security (A class) allocations have increased in New South Wales for the Border Rivers.
• Allocations in Victoria and South Australia remain unchanged.
Allocations at 22 January 2015 (%) 11 February 2015 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley 49* 97 49* 97
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 40* 95 40* 95
NSW Lower Darling 100* 100 100* 100
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 2* 100 2* 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Upper Namoi 100* 100 100* 100
NSW Gwydir Valley 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Border Rivers 28.2a/0b 100 67.1 a /0b 100
NSW Peel Valley 0* 50 0* 50
Victoria Low
reliability
High reliability
Low reliability
High reliability
Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 100
Victoria Goulburn 0 100 0 100
Victoria Campaspe 0 100 0 100
Victoria Loddon 0 100 0 100
Victoria Bullarook 100 100 100 100
Victoria Broken 100 100 100 100
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$255 a tonne in the week ending 10 February 2015, compared with US$247 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$175 a tonne in the week ending 11 February 2015, compared with US$171 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$411 a tonne in the week ending 10 February 2015, compared with US$403 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US69.1 cents a pound in the week ending 11 February 2015, around 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US14.6 cents a pound in the week ending 11 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1101 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 5 February 2015, compared with 1070 cents a kilogram in the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 25 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $306 a tonne in the week ending 11 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $299 a tonne in the week ending 11 February 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 11 February 2015, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $486 a tonne in the week ending 11 February 2015, around 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 448 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 6 February 2015, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week.Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by around 5 per cent in New South Wales to average 450 cents a kilogram and by around 8 per cent in Victoria to average 420 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were higher in all states in the week ending 6 February 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest increase was in Victoria, where the indicator price rose by around 3 per cent to average 580 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). In other states, the indicator price rose by around 2 per cent in New South Wales and South Australia to average 562 cents a kilogram and 573 cents a kilogram, respectively. In Western Australia, the indicator price rose by around 2 per cent to average 500 cents a kilogram.
Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 7 February 2015.The wholesale prices of tomato (field gourmet), cauliflower and broccoli were higher than the previous week while the prices of lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) were lower.
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3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
