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11 June 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 10 June 2015 rainfall was mainly restricted to southern Australia.
Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in south western Western Australia, the north eastern coast of Queensland, the south eastern tip of South Australia, south western Victoria and much of Tasmania.
Maximum temperatures were above average over much of northern and western Australia, and average across south eastern Australia during the week ending 9 June 2015. Minimum
temperatures were largely above average in Western Australia and below average in eastern Australia.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for May 2015 was average or above average across parts of Western Australia and much of south eastern Australia, while below average over much of central and northern Australia.
The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely, with sea surface
temperatures forecast to remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of the year.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely in all states and territories, with the highest rainfall expected in south eastern Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 97 gigalitres (GL) and are at 40 per cent of total capacity. This is 15 percentage points or 3305 GL less than this time last year.
The wool indicator price (EMI) averaged 1373 cents a kilogram (clean) in the week ending 4 June 2015, compared with 1312 cents a kilogram in the previous week. The number of bales offered for sale fell 32 per cent from the previous week.
Saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose in most mainland states in the week ending 5 June 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator price increased by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 590 cents a kilogram (dressed weight); 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 593 cents a kilogram; and 4 per cent in Western Australia to average 568 cents. In contrast, the indicator price fell by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 552 cents a kilogram.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$241 a tonne in the week ending 9 June 2015, compared with US$234 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) increased by 3 per cent in the week ending 10 June 2015 to $345 a tonne.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) increased by 8 per cent in the week
ending 10 June 2015 to $523 a tonne.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 10 June 2015, rainfall was mainly restricted to southern Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in south western Western Australia, north eastern coast of Queensland, the south eastern tip of South Australia, south western Victoria and much of Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 155 millimetres at Mount Read in western Tasmania.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 10 June 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 10/06/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were above average over much of northern and western Australia, and average across south eastern Australia during the week ending 9 June 2015. Some parts in central Western Australia recorded temperatures between 6 and 8 degrees above average for this time of year.
Minimum temperatures were largely above average in Western Australia and below average in eastern Australia during the week ending 9 June 2015. Southern Queensland and southern New South Wales recorded temperatures between 4 and 6 degrees below average for this time of year.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 9 June 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 10/06/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 9 June 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 10/06/2015
4 1.3. Recent soil moisture percentiles
The maps below show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (0 to 0.2 metres) soil moisture and lower layer (0.2 to 1.5 metres) soil moisture during May 2015. These maps show how modelled soil conditions during May 2015 compare with May conditions modelled over the 30 year reference period (1961 to 1990). Dark green areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the 1961–1990 reference period, and dark brown areas are drier.
The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 0.3 metres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.2 metres) is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for May 2015 was average or above average across parts of Western Australia and much of south eastern Australia, while below average over much of central and northern Australia. Across cropping regions in southern Queensland, northern New South Wales, South Australia and southern Western Australia, relative upper layer soil moisture was predominantly average to above average.
Across cropping regions in northern Queensland, southern New South Wales, Victoria and northern Western Australia, relative upper layer soil moisture was below average to average.
Upper layer soil moisture for May 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
Relative lower layer soil moisture for May 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across much of western and central Australia. Extremely low relative lower layer soil moisture in northern
Queensland has expanded in spatial extent since April 2015, while in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales extremely low relative lower layer soil moisture have decreased in spatial extent since April 2015.
In parts of the south eastern Queensland cropping region, relative lower layer soil moisture was average to above average. Cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia show variable relative lower layer soil moisture, although levels continue to tend toward below average. Meanwhile, relative lower layer soil moisture levels remain above average across much of the cropping region in South Australia.
5 Lower layer soil moisture for May 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
6 1.4. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely in all states and territories, with the majority expected in south eastern Australia. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres have been forecast for parts of coastal and southern Queensland, eastern South Australia, north eastern New South Wales and western Tasmania.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 11 to 18 June 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 10/06/2015
1.5. ENSO Wrap-Up
The Bureau of Meteorology has advised that the 2015 El Niño continues to develop. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely, with sea surface temperatures forecast to remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of the year. Most oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are consistent with El Niño. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have continued to warm and trade winds have been consistently weaker than average. However, the current rise of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is being caused by local weather, not some of the climate factors previously mentioned. In the past three months the SOI has averaged
−9.7, exceeding El Niño thresholds. Cloudiness near the Date Line has also eased toward more normal levels but this shift may only be short-lived.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above- average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, it should be noted that the strength of El Niño does not relate directly to the strength of its effects on Australia's climate.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks, two suggest a positive IOD is likely later in 2015, with a third model just shy of thresholds. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 97 gigalitres (GL) and are at 40 per cent of total capacity. This is 15 percentage points or 3305 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 11 June 2015 is shown above.
The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
8 2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2014–15 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
Allocations have increased in the New South Wales Border Rivers catchment for general security A and general security B class water users.
As announced on 1 April 2015, allocations in Victoria will remain unchanged for the remainder of the 2014–15 water trading season. These allocation levels were determined on 15 December 2014.
Allocations at 16 April 2015 (%) 11 June 2015 (%)
New South Wales General
security
High security
General security
High security
NSW Murray Valley 61* 97 61* 97
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 53* 95 53* 95
NSW Lower Darling 100* 100 100* 100
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 2* 100 2* 100
NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100
NSW Lachlan Valley 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Upper Namoi 100* 100 100* 100
NSW Gwydir Valley 0* 100 0* 100
NSW Border Rivers 67.1 a /0b 100 100 a /1.6b 100
NSW Peel Valley 0* 50 0* 50
Victoria Low
reliability
High reliability
Low reliability
High reliability
Victoria Murray Valley 0 100 0 100
Victoria Goulburn 0 100 0 100
Victoria Campaspe 0 100 0 100
Victoria Loddon 0 100 0 100
Victoria Bullarook 100 100 100 100
Victoria Broken 100 100 100 100
South Australia High
security
High security
South Australia Murray Valley 100 100
*Carryover water may also be available
a General security A class. b General security B class.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$241 a tonne in the week ending 9 June 2015, compared with US$234 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$165 a tonne in the week ending 10 June 2015, compared with US$163 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$452 a tonne in the week ending 9 June 2015, compared with US$436 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around US73 cents a pound in the week ending 10 June 2015, compared with US72 cents a pound in the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged around US12.1 cents a pound in the week ending 10 June 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) increased by 3 per cent in the week ending 10 June 2015 to $345 a tonne.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) rose by 1 per cent in the week ending 10 June 2015 to $298 a tonne.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $287 a tonne in the week ending 10 June 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) increased by 8 per cent in the week ending 10 June 2015 to $523 a tonne.
The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 457 cents a kilogram in the week ending 5 June 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices were also largely unchanged in New South Wales and Victoria, averaging 522 cents a kilogram and 521 cents a kilogram, respectively.
Saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose in most mainland states in the week ending 5 June 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator price increased by 1 per cent in Victoria to average 590 cents a kilogram (dressed weight); 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 593 cents a kilogram; and 4 per cent in Western Australia to average 568 cents. In contrast, the indicator price fell by 1 per cent in South Australia to average 552 cents a kilogram.
The wool indicator price (EMI) averaged 1373 cents a kilogram (clean) in the week ending 4 June 2015, compared with 1312 cents a kilogram in the previous week. The number of bales offered for sale fell 32 per cent from the previous week.
Fruit prices were generally lower in the week ending 6 June 2015. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf), watermelon (seedless), blueberry, kiwifruit (hayward) andstrawberry fell, while the price of avocado (hass) rose and the price of apple (royal gala) remained largely unchanged.
Wholesale vegetable prices were generally lower in the week ending 6 June 2015. The prices of onion (brown), cauliflower, broccoli, lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) fell, while the prices of tomato (field gourmet), potato (white, brushed) and pumpkin (grey bulk) were largely unchanged..
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3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
