새만금 농업용지 미래 수요 분석 및 토지이용 연구

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(1)C2012-63 | 2012. 11.. 새만금 농업용지 미래 수요 분석 및 토지이용 연구 김 오 채 김. 홍 내 광 윤. 상 원 석 형. 선임연구위원 선임연구위원 부연구위원 부연구위원.

(2) 연구 담당 김 오 채 김. 홍 내 광 윤. 상 원 석 형. 선임연구위원 선임연구위원 부연구위원 부연구위원. 연구총괄, 토지이용방안 구상 개발방향 설정 농업용지 수요분석 Agropark 사례분석.

(3) i 머 리 말. 새만금 간척지개발사업은 척사업으로 시작된 후. 20여. 20년. 1991년. 안정적 식량기반 구축을 위한 농지개발 차원에서 간. 넘게 진행되어온 대규모 국책사업이다. 하지만 사업 착수 후. 년 동안 농지 개발의 중요성이 상대적으로 줄어들고, 경제 활성화가 강조되는 등. ·. 국가정책과 국내 외 여건 변화로 토지이용 방향이 계속 변화하게 되었다.. 2011년 3월 새만금 지역을 첨단 국제도시로 재편하고자 하는 “새만금종합개발계획 (MP)”이 확정되는 한편, 새만금 농업용지 개발에 Agropark 개념을 적용하여 한국형 친환 경 미래농업을 선도하는 농업단지로 조성하자는 의견이 제시되었다. 즉, 친환경 고부가 가치 농업 생산단지 및 가공·유통·관광(체험)단지의 랜드마크화, 지역특성과 공간적 조화 를 이룬 주제별 농업클러스터를 유기적으로 연결하는 Agropark로 개발하는 방안을 적극 검토할 필요성이 제기되었다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 “새만금종합개발계획(MP)”에서 제 시된 토지이용계획안을 새롭게 접근하고, 계획 내용을 좀 더 구체화하며, 한국형 Agropark 개념을 반영한 토지이용계획 기본구상 및 농업용지 토지이용계획 보완 작업을 추진하는 데 목적이 있다. 이 연구는 새만금 농업용지 미래 수요 분석 및 토지이용 계획(안)의 수립 과정에서 해 당 농지의 실질적 관리주체인 농림수산식품부와 한국농어촌공사 등의 의견을 적극 수렴 하여 더욱 실천 가능한 토지이용계획(안)을 마련하였다. 따라서 이 연구의 착수에서 검토 및 보고 회의 과정에서 도움을 주신 농림수산식품부, 한국농어촌공사 새만금사업 관계자, 전라북도를 비롯한 지자체 관계자, 농촌진흥청 관계자와 네덜란드. Peter Smeets. 교수에게 감사드린다.. Wageningen UR의. 아무쪼록 이 연구가 새만금 토지이용계획 수립에 도움이 되기를 기대한다.. 2012. 11 한국농촌경제연구원장 이 동 필.

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(5) iii 요. 2011년 3월 ‘새만금. 약. 종합개발계획(MP)’에서는 새만금 농업용지(8,570ha)에 대해 ‘글로. 벌 경쟁력을 갖춘 첨단기술 및 고품질 수출 농업 육성’이라는 비전 실현을 위해 3대 전 략목표를 수립하고. 11개 세부 용지의 개발 계획을 수립하였다.. 하지만 개발계획 수립 후. 국내외 여건 변화에 따른 복합곡물단지 등의 용지수요 재검토 필요성이 제기되어 왔고, 또한 새만금 지역이 동북아 경제중심지로서 미래성장 엔진으로 도약하는 비전에 부응하 기 위한 아그로파크(Agropark) 개념 등 미래 유망농업을 적용하는 방안에 대한 검토도 요구되었다.. (1) 국내외 농업여건과 환경변화 등을 반영한 미래의 새만금 농업용지 수요를 재분석하고, (2) 한국형 Agropark 개념을 반영한 농업용지 토지이용계획을 보완하 고, (3) 보완된 농업용지 이용계획에 따른 농업용수 수요량을 재산정하는 것이 목적이다. 따라서 본 연구는. 먼저 새만금 농업용지 개발방향 재설정을 위하여 크게 기존 재설정, 강화 등 3가지 관점에서 접근하였다. 먼저 기존. MP의 기본개념 수용, 일부. MP의 비전을 수용하는 견해에서 개발방향을 재설정하였다. MP 기본개념 일부 재설정에서는 첫째, 지속 가능한 농업 개념 을 도입하고, 둘째, Agropark 개념을 수용하고, 셋째, 농산업클러스터 개발 방향을 전환 하고, 넷째, 미래 잠재수요를 반영하였다. MP 기본개념 강화에서는 첫째, 원예단지는 수 출농업단지로 특화하여 내수 농업과 차별화하고, 둘째, 고부가가치 농식품산업 단지로서 농산업클러스터를 중점 개발하는데 두었다. 용도별 토지이용 방안 구상을 위한 새만금에 새만금. MP에서도 Agropark의. Agropark. 개념 도입을 검토 결과는, 기존. 기본요소들이 대부분 포함되어 있지만, 이들 구성요소를. 연결하는 지능형 농산업 물류네트워크가 부족하다. 새만금 주변에는 아직 비농업용지. (70%)의. 토지이용에 대한 구체적인 실적이 없어 농산업 물류네트워크를 직접 적용하기. 는 어려운 상황이다. 따라서. Agropark의. 범위 및 구축 단계를 2단계로 나누어 추진하는. 장기적인 전략이 필요하다. 초기 단계에서는 사실상 식품클러스터 개념으로 범위를 새만금 농업지역으로 한정하고 기존. Agropark. Agropark의. 기능에 추가될 고부가가치 아이템. 발굴 및 선정에 중점을 두었다. 중장기적으로는 전북 혁신도시 조성 계획과 연계하여. Agropark의. 범위를 확장하여 물류센터와 국가식품클러스터, 혁신도시를 연결하는 지능. 형 농산업 물류 네트워크 구축이 필요하다..

(6) iv 새만금 농업용지 토지이용계획 보완(안)은 다음과 같다. 먼저, 기존단지 중 복합곡물단 지. 3,995ha는 식량생산 단지로 재개념화 하고 면적은 축소하는 방향으로 설정한다.. ·. 다만,. 미래수요에 대응하기 위해서 논농업 중심의 농지를 논 밭 겸용이 가능하도록 농지 범용 화를 추진한다. 그리고 일부 식량생산단지는 특수미 등의 원종, 보급종 생산을 위한 채종 단지로 활용한다. 자연순환형 유기농업단지는 기존. 304ha를. 유지한다. 유기축산을 위한. 사료작물 생산 및 가축분뇨의 활용과 경종농업이 함께 공존하는 구조를 가지며,. Agropark. 개념 아래 단지 내에서의 물질순환이 아닌 개방형 관리로 에너지 순환 측면에. 서 바이오가스 효율 증진을 도모한다.. 1,352ha는 MP을 수용하고, 다만 일반원예단지 1,003ha 중 일부는 기능을 전환한다. 일반원예단지 중 100ha를 수평형 식물공장 또는 유 리온실 단지 등으로 설치하여 Agro-medical 생산집적화 단지로 조성한다. 연구로 기능성 효과가 증명된 약용·의료용 농산물을 첨단 IT기술과 융합하여 건강 기능성 식품 생산·공 급체계를 조성한다. 또한, 일반원예단지 중 300ha를 채소, 화훼, 사료작물의 채종단지로 활용한다. 원예단지. 2,355ha. 중 첨단수출원예단지. 300ha을 유지하는 대신 기능을 강화한다. 이를 통해 농업 의 트렌드를 반영한 복합산업화로 농산업의 경쟁력 강화와 부가가치를 증대한다. 앞으 로 10년 이내에 전국적으로 농업 목적의 간척지 3만ha 정도가 완공될 예정이다. 농업용 간척지를 21세기 경쟁력 있는 고소득 대규모 농업단지로 활용하기 위해서는 제염 및 다 양한 작목 재배를 위한 선행 연구가 반드시 필요하다. 따라서 첨단농업시험단지의 기능 농산업클러스터 단지는 기존. ·. 을 강화하여 농업의 국제경쟁력 확보를 위한 기술집약 미래형 첨단농업시험단지로 구축 한다. 다만. 170ha의. 면적은 현행을 유지한다.. 미래 유망농산업을 반영한 신규 도입 단지로는 종자생명단지, 말복합산업단지가 있다.. 먼저 새만금 간척지 인근인 김제시에서 추진 중인 시드밸리(민간육종연구단지 약. 54ha). 에 육종 관련 민간 연구소와 기업이 입주할 예정이다. 이로 인해 대규모 육종 및 채종포 단지가 필요하게 된다. 따라서 새만금 농업용지 내 육종연구 중심의 종자생명단지를. 166ha. 도입한다. 종자생명단지 내 채종면적은 별도로 배분하지 않지만, 고품질 종자 채. 종을 위하여 기존 일반원예단지와 식량생산단지에서 각각. 300ha와 100ha를. 채종지로 활. 용한다. 새만금 일원은 말산업 육성에 필수조건인 조사료가 풍부하여 말 생산 및 사육의 적지이다. 특히 말산업은 중국을 중심으로 동남아시아가 새로운 시장으로 부상되고 있어 미래 말 수출 전략기지로 새만금지역이 부상할 전망이다. 따라서 새만금 농업용지 내 말. · · · ·. 생산 육성 조련 치료 관광 등이 가능한 말복합산업단지. 200ha를. 도입한다..

(7) v ABSTRACT. A Study on Future Demand Analysis and Land-use in Saemangeum Agricultural Land. This paper reviewed the demand for land including grain complexes according to the perspectives of domestic and foreign agriculture and the changes in the development environment of agricultural land in the Semangeum. We suggested the needs for compensating the utilization plans of agricultural land. These needs include: (1) reanalyzing the demand for agricultural land in Semangeum, in consideration of the changes in the conditions and environment of domestic and foreign agriculture; (2) analyzing the site conditions of Semangeum; and (3) analyzing the changes in the conditions of the food and agriculture industries through determining their directions, in consideration of the conditions and changes of the global markets. The purposes of this paper include: (1) reanalyzing the prospective demand for agricultural land in Semangeum, in consideration of the changes in the conditions and environment of domestic and foreign agriculture; and (2) making basic land utilization plans and compensating for the utilization plans of agricultural land, with the Agropark concept fit to Korea. While this study has been done mainly by the researchers in the Korea Rural Economic Institute, we have also constructed the advisory and cooperative research system with foreign experts, preparing to introduce and establish the advanced Agropark concept. This study consists largely of the four steps: (1) reanalyzing the demand for agricultural land in Semangeum; (2) redetermining the direction to develop agricultural land in the reclaimed land of Semangeum; (3) reanalyzing the validity of the development of new agricultural land in Semangeum; and (4) making land utilization plans of agricultural land in the reclaimed land of Semangeum. In reanalyzing the demand for agricultural land in Semangeum, we performed: (1) analysis of the changes in the conditions of the domestic and foreign agriculture; and (2) analysis on demand for the reclaimed land and the changes in the site conditions of Semangeum. In redetermining the direction to develop agricultural land in the reclaimed land of Semangeum, we performed: (1) reviews on the current agricultural and food industries and related topics; (2) analysis on the cases that foreign Agroparks were utilized as agricultural land; and (3) estimation of proper areas of the agricultural land in.

(8) vi Semangeum by its use and division. When the validity of the development of new agricultural land in Semangeum was analyzed, its proper area and validity were estimated after correcting and compensating the land utilization plans. When plans to utilize agricultural land in Semangeum were made, the basic plans and land utilization plans were derived by introducing the Agropark concept fit to Korea, through the advices from the domestic and foreign experts including ones from Netherland in particular. The supplementary plan to the Saemangeum Agricultural Land Use Plan is as follows. First, the multi-purpose grain complex of 3,995ha amongst the existing complexes will be redesignated as a food production complex, and its land size will be readjusted in the direction of reducing it. But, in order to cope with future demand, the agricultural land for rice cultivation should be transformed into a general-purpose farmland for growing both rice and other crops. In addition, a portion of the food production complex shall be used as a seed production field for the production of different varieties and cultivars including those of "special rice". As for the organic agricultural complex of a natural circulation type, the land size shall be maintained at the current level of 304ha. The complex will be structured in such a way that would enable the coexistence of crop cultivation with the cultivation of feed crops for organic livestock and use of animal waste. The agricultural complex seeks to increase the efficient use of biogas under the concept of "Agropark" in the sense that energy is recycled through open management rather than material circulation within the complex. Of the 2,355ha of the horticultural complex, the horticulture export complex (1,352ha) shall be made to accommodate mass production of horticultural crops, but some parts of the general horticultural complex (1,003ha) should be transformed to perform other functions. Of the general horticultural complex, 100ha should be developed into a production-integrated agro-medical complex installed with plant factories of horizontal types or glass greenhouses. A health food production and supply system should be built by blending research-proven medicinal and medical agricultural produce with cutting-edge information technologies. In addition, 300ha of the general horticultural complex should be used as a seed production complex for vegetables, flowers and feed crops. As for the Agro-Industry Cluster, the current size of 300ha should be maintained but its functions should be enhanced. A multi-functional industrialization that reflects today's agricultural trends will be materialized through these efforts, and this can increase the competitive strength of the agro-industry and its added values. Within the next 10 years, around 30,000ha of land across the country is expected to be reclaimed for agricultural use. In order to use a reclaimed farmland as a large-scale, high income-generating agricultural complex that is competitive in the 21st century, it is essential to conduct an advance research for the production of salt and cultivation of various crops. Accordingly, a technology-intensive futuristic agricultural test.

(9) vii complex with enhanced functions should be built to secure the international competitiveness of agriculture, but the area size will remain at the current level of 170ha. As for the new complexes, a seed complex and a multi-purpose horse complex are to be newly introduced. First, private research institutes and companies are set to move in to the private Seed Valley (approximately 54ha) which is envisioned by Gimje City located next to the Saemangeum reclaimed land. As a result, it will be necessary to have a large complex for plant breeding and seed production. Therefore, a breeding complex with an area size of 166ha should be introduced within the reclaimed farmland for mostly conducting research on plant breeding. Although the area size of the seed production field in the breeding complex is not specified separately, 300ha of the existing horticultural complex and 100ha of the food production complex shall be used as seed production fields. The Saemangeum region is an ideal location for breeding and raising horses since there is plenty of forage, which is a prerequisite to the development of the horse industry. Besides, since China, as well as Southeast Asia, is emerging as a new market for the horse industry, the Saemangeum region is expected to emerge a strategic export base in the future. Therefore, 200ha of land should be allocated as a multi-functional horse complex where horses are bred, raised, trained, and cared for various purposes including tourism..

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(11) ix. 목 차 제1장 서 론. ·············································································································· 3 2. 연구 목적 ·············································································································· 7 3. 연구 추진체계 ······································································································· 7 1. 연구 배경. 제2장 새만금 종합개발계획(MP) 개요. ················································································ 11 2. 새만금 농업용지 개발의 비전 및 전략 ··························································· 13 3. 도입기능 및 시설 ······························································································· 14 4. 단지별 조성계획 ································································································· 17 1. 새만금의 목표와 개발전략. 제3장 새만금 입지 및 농업관련 여건 분석. ····································································································· 31 2. 농업구조 변화 ····································································································· 36 3. 농산물 소비구조 변화 ······················································································· 40 4. 농산물 시장 및 유통체계 변화 ······································································ 43 5. 농업정책의 변화 ································································································· 47 1. 입지여건 분석. 제4장 새만금 농업용지 수요 재분석. ················································································· 57 2. 국내외 농산물 수급 동향 및 수요 전망 ····················································· 62 3. 농식품 수출동향 ································································································· 67 4. 새로운 농산업 분야 잠재자원 도출 및 수요 분석 ···································· 72 5. 전문가 의견 조사 ··························································································· 74 6. 새만금 농업용지별 경제적 타당성 검토 ························································· 77 1. Agropark 도입과 유용성.

(12) x. 제5장 새만금 농업용지 개발방향 재설정. ································································· 89 2. 기존 MP의 비전 수용 ··················································································· 89 3. MP 기존개념 일부 재설정 ··············································································· 91 4. MP 기존개념 강화 ···························································································· 94 1. 새만금 농업용지 개발 방향 재설정. 제6장 용도별 토지이용방안 구상. ············································ 99 2. 새만금 농업용지 토지이용계획 보완(안) 제시 ············································· 103 3. 기존단지의 개발전략 및 주요기능 ································································· 111 4. 신규도입 단지 ··································································································· 121 5. 단계적 개발 방안 ····························································································· 127 1. Agropark 개념을 도입한 농업단지 기본구상. 부록. Agropark 사례와 개념 정리. ······························································································ 133 2. Agropark 유사 개념 정리 ············································································· 138 3. 유럽의 식물공장 ······························································································· 147 4. Agro-medical 생산단지 ·················································································· 148 1. Agropark 사례. 참고문헌. ······················································································································ 153.

(13) xi. 표 목 차 제1장. <표 1- 1>. 농업용지 기능별 도입시설 계획(2011.. 제2장. <표 2- 1>. 제3장. <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표. 제4장. <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표. 3333333-. 1> 2> 3> 4> 5> 6> 7>. 농업용지 관리 방안. 3) ···················································· 5. ······················································································· 27. ································································ 37 농촌관광 수요의 추이와 전망(2005～2030) ··············································· 38 농림부문 R&D 예산 및 비중 ······································································ 39 기상이변 발생빈도 수 추이와 전망 ···························································· 44 소매업체의 업태별 매출액 대비 식품 비중 ··············································· 46 간척지구별 특성화 방향 ··············································································· 50 지구별·용도별 면적 ······················································································· 50 농가호수, 인구, 경지면적의 변화. 4- 1> Agropark와 전통농업, 생활농업, 도시농업의 차이점 ································ 57 4- 2> Agropark의 장점과 단점 ··············································································· 60 4- 3> 곡물자급도 ······································································································ 63 4- 4> 농지이용면적 추이(현 추세 가정) ······························································· 65 4- 5> 필요농지면적 추정(곡물자급률 32% 설정) ················································ 66 4- 6> 축종별 사육두수 전망 ··················································································· 66 4- 7> 주요 수출대상국별 수출증가 기여도; 2005-2010 ······································ 68 4- 8> 중국의 도시 및 농촌 주민 1인당 식품소비량 변화 추이 ························ 70 4- 9> 토지이용계획(안) 도출에 영향을 미치는 요소들의 중요도 결과 ············ 76 4-10> 새만금 농업용지 개발 목표 ········································································· 77 4-11> 복합곡물단지 ha당 공사비 ··········································································· 79 4-12> 복합곡물단지 경제성 분석 결과 ·································································· 80 4-13> 복합곡물단지를 범용화단지로 전환시 ha당 공사비 ·································· 80 4-14> 주요 작물의 경제성 ······················································································· 81.

(14) xii <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 제6장. <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표 <표. 부록. ················································· 82 간척농지 임대 가정시 작부체계별 B/C(간척지조성비 제외) ··················· 82 첨단유리온실단지 ha당 공사비 ···································································· 83 첨단유리온실단지 경제성 분석 결과 ·························································· 84 일반 원예단지 ha당 공사비 ········································································· 85. 4-15> 4-16> 4-17> 4-18> 4-19>. 작물의 연차별 생산량 수량증가율 기준표. 6666666-. 네덜란드 토지이용계획(안). 1> 2> 3> 4> 5> 6> 7>. ··········································································· 99 새만금 Agropark의 SWOT 분석 ································································ 101 단지별 도입기능 및 조정의 기본 방향 ····················································· 110 농가 법인체별 적정시설 면적 ···································································· 114 무·배추 종자 예상 채종량 및 면적(‘12∼’25) ········································· 121 작물별 채종현황(2011년 기준) ··································································· 122 육종연구 및 채종포단지 시설 규모 ·························································· 124. <부표 1> Greenport Shanghai의 토지이용계획(안) ···················································· 138 <부표 2> 네덜란드 푸드밸리 클러스터의 개요 및 시사점 ······································· 139 <부표 3> 외레순 클러스터의 개요 및 시사점 ···························································· 144.

(15) xiii. 그림목차 제1장. <그림 1- 1> <그림 1- 2> <그림 1- 3>. 제2장. <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림. 제3장. <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림 <그림. 222222222-. ············································································· 4 새만금 농업용지 토지이용계획(안)(2011. 3) ············································ 6 연구추진체계 흐름도 ··················································································· 8 새만금 용지배분계획(안). 1> 새만금의 비전과 목표 ··············································································· 11 2> 농업용지의 비전, 목표 및 개발전략 ························································ 13 3> 농업용지의 주요기능 ················································································· 15 4> 농업용지의 도입기능별 면적배분 및 시설 ············································· 15 5> 복합곡물단지 개발계획 ············································································· 17 6> 농산업클러스터 개발계획 및 도입기능 ··················································· 22 7> 저탄소 녹색성장시범단지 개발계획 ························································· 23 8> 농촌마을 개념 ···························································································· 25 9> Agropark의 개념 ························································································ 26. 3- 1> 새만금의 위치 ···························································································· 31 3- 2> R＆D 중심의 국가식품클러스터 개념도(안) ··········································· 33 3- 3> 혁신도시내 토지이용계획 ·········································································· 34 3- 4> 전북 혁신도시 연계 광역클러스터 ·························································· 35 3- 5> 민간육종연구단지 조성계획 ······································································ 36 3- 6> 연도별 농지면적 추이 ··············································································· 37 3- 7> 주요 농산물 1인당 소비량 ······································································· 40 3- 8> 가구당 식품비 지출의 구성비 ·································································· 41 3- 9> FAO 연도별 곡물가격 지수(1990-2012) ················································· 43 3-10> 대형마트 성장 추이 ··················································································· 45 3-11> 기업형 슈퍼마켓의 성장 추이 ·································································· 45 3-12> 2020 비전 체계도 ······················································································ 48.