Summary of key issues 

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12 March 2015

The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues



During the week ending 11 March 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia.



Maximum temperatures were above average in large parts of north eastern Australia during the week ending 10 March 2015. Maximum temperatures were below average in large parts of western and southern Australia.



As at 12 March 2015, there are two active Tropical Cyclone systems within the Australian region. Tropical Cyclone Nathan off the north eastern coast of Queensland and Tropical Cyclone Olwyn off the mid west coast of Western Australia.



According to the Australian Plague Locust Commission, a widespread, high density adult generation developed in several regions of Queensland and New South Wales during February 2015.



Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by

234 gigalitres (GL) and are at 43 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2484 GL less than this time last year.



The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$241 a tonne in the week ending 10 March 2015, compared with US$244 a tonne in the previous week.



The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $313 a tonne in the week ending 11 March 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.



The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 424 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 6 March 2015, 4 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 427 cents a kilogram and were largely unchanged in Victoria at an average of 416 cents a kilogram.



Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the

states in the week ending 6 March 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator rose

by 7 per cent in Western Australia to average 545 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) and by 3

per cent in South Australia to average 525 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price fell

by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 545 cents a kilogram and 1 per cent in New South Wales to

average 522 cents a kilogram.

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2 1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

During the week ending 11 March 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia. Rainfalls in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded over large parts of northern and eastern Western Australia, some parts of the Northern Territory, across northern and central Queensland, north eastern New South Wales and western Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 224 millimetres at Mount Read in western Tasmania.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 11 March 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 11/03/2015

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3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

Maximum temperatures were above average in large parts of north eastern Australia during the week ending 10 March 2015. Central Queensland and north eastern New South Wales recorded temperatures between 4 and 8 degrees above average for this time of year. Maximum temperatures were below average in large parts of western and southern Australia. Central Western Australia recorded temperatures between 4 and 10 degrees below average for this time of year.

The majority of the country recorded average minimum temperatures during the week ending 10 March 2015.

Minimum temperatures were above average through central Queensland and southern Northern Territory and below average in central Western Australia.

Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 March 2015

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 March 2015

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4 1.3. Tropical cyclones

As at 12 March 2015, there are two active Tropical Cyclone systems within the Australian region. Tropical Cyclone Nathan off the north eastern coast of Queensland and Tropical Cyclone Olwyn off the mid west coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan (Category 2) is continuing to move slowly southwest towards the coast near Cape Flattery. It is expected to slow this movement during today and ultimately change direction to the east- northeast away from the coast over the next 24 hours. A cyclone WARNING is current for Coen to Port Douglas and a cyclone WATCH is current for Lockhart River to Coen.

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn (Category 2) is currently moving south towards the mid west coast of Western Australia and is currently expected to make landfall as a category 3 system between Karratha and Exmouth on Friday, 13 March 2015. A cyclone WARNING is current for Whim Creek to Cape Cuvier and a cyclone WATCH is current for Cape Cuvier to Kalbarri.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan - forecast track map

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn - forecast track map

The forecast paths shown above are the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

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5 1.4. Australian Plague Locust Distribution

According to the Australian Plague Locust Commission, a widespread, high density adult generation developed in several regions of Queensland and New South Wales during February 2015. Swarms formed in parts of South Central, Central West, Northwest and Southwest Queensland, and in Central West New South Wales.

Localised nymph bands developed in parts of Far West New South Wales and north South Australia in early February. Swarms persisted in Southwest and Central West Queensland, but densities declined in the South Central region. Adult numbers remained generally low in other regions of Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales, although a moderate increase was detected in the Riverina and Far Southwest of New South Wales.

The autumn outlook is for a gradual decline in adult populations in South Central, Central West, Northwest and Southwest Queensland and in Central West New South Wales. Localised increases in adult numbers will occur in Far West New South Wales and Far North South Australia. There is a moderate probability of migration from Queensland into New South Wales and South Australia during March 2015, but the risk will decline during autumn. Migrations into southern South Australia, southern New South Wales and northern Victoria from adjacent regions are possible during autumn.

Australian Plague Locust Distribution 1 February to 2 March 2015

Source: Department of Agriculture, Australian Plague Locust Commission

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6 1.5. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be restricted to parts of western, northern and eastern Australia.

The forecast heavy falls across northern Queensland and along the west coast of Western Australia are associated with the development, movement and decay of Tropical Cyclone Nathan and Tropical Cyclone Olwyn. After landfall Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is expected to track south along the coast and bring falls in excess of 25 millimetres across much of coast Western Australia. The current forecast movement of Tropical Cyclone Nathan indicate that this system is unlikely to make landfall in northern Queensland. As a result heavy rainfall associated with this system is forecast to be restricted to far north of the state.

The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 12 to 19 March 2015

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7 2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 234 gigalitres (GL) and are at 43 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2484 GL less than this time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 12 March 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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8 3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities



The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$241 a tonne in the week ending 10 March 2015, compared with US$244 a tonne in the previous week.



The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$174 a tonne in the week ending 11 March 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.



The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$404 a tonne in the week ending 10 March 2015, compared with US$414 a tonne in the previous week.



The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US69.2 cents a pound in the week ending 11 March 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.



The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US13.3 cents a pound in the week ending 11 March 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.



Data from China Customs indicates that China imported a little over 900 000 tonnes of raw cotton in the first six months of the 2014–15 season (August to July), compared with around 1.7 million tonnes imported over the same period a year ago.



Data from China Sugar Association indicates that China produced around 7.3 million tonnes of sugar (white value equivalent) in the first five months of the 2014–15 season (October to September). Over the same period, cane sugar production declined from 8.5 million tonnes to 6.5 million tonnes while beet sugar output dropped slightly to 738 000 tonnes.



The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1085 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 5 March 2015, compared with 1088 cents a kilogram in the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 9 per cent lower than the previous week.



The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $313 a tonne in the week ending 11 March 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.



The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $289 a tonne in the week ending 11 March 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.



The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $272 a tonne in the week ending 11 March 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.



The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $457 a tonne in the week ending 9 March 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.



The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 424 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 6 March 2015, 4 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 427 cents a kilogram and were largely unchanged in Victoria at an average of 416 cents a kilogram.



Changes to the saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the states in the week ending 6 March 2015, compared with the previous week. The indicator rose by 7 per cent in Western Australia to average 545 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) and by 3 per cent in South Australia to average 525 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price fell by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 545 cents a kilogram and 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 522 cents a kilogram.



Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruits were mixed in the week ending 7 March 2015. The wholesale prices for blueberry and avocado (hass) were higher than the previous week, while the prices of watermelon (seedless) and strawberry were lower.



The wholesale prices of selected vegetables generally fell in the week ending 7 March 2015.

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9 3.2. Selected world indicator prices

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11 3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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12 3.4. Crop indicator prices

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13 3.5. Livestock indicator prices

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14 3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices

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15 4. Data attribution

Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

 Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

 Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

 Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

 Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

 Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

 Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

 ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Water

New South Wales

 New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

 New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:

http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Queensland

 Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

 Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia

 SA Water:

http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm

 South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria

 Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au

Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

 Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

 The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

 Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs

 Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola

 Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy

Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/