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9 April 2015
The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
During the week ending 8 April 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia.
Minimum temperatures were above average over much of Australia during the week ending 7 April 2015 while maximum temperatures were above average in northern Australia and below average in southern Western Australia and western South Australia.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for March 2015 was mostly above average across Western Australia and below average over much of the remainder of the country.
The spatial extent and severity of rainfall deficiencies have increased across southern South Australia and western Victoria for the 9-month period (July 2014 to March 2015).
The area affected by serious and severe rainfall deficiencies for the 30-month period (October 2012 to March 2015) has increased in extent and severity in northern, central and western Queensland, northern New South Wales, western Victoria and south-east South Australia.
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that higher rainfall totals are likely to be restricted to parts of southern Western Australia and western Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 25
millimetres is likely in parts of southern Western Australia and coastal areas of Far North Queensland.
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by
129 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 13 percentage points or 2989 GL less than this time last year.
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$258 a tonne in the week ending 7 April 2015, compared with US$254 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 420 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 3 April 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 425 cents a kilogram and by 5 per cent in Victoria to average 428 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell across all states in the week
ending 3 April 2015. The largest fall was in Western Australia, where the indicator price fell by 7
per cent to average 498 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) while the price declined in South
Australia by 6 per cent to 488 cents a kilogram. In eastern states, the indicator price fell by 2 per
cent in Victoria and 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 520 cents a kilogram and 517
cents a kilogram, respectively.
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1. Climate
1.1. Rainfall this week
During the week ending 8 April 2015 rainfall was mainly recorded across western, northern and eastern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded across much of eastern New South Wales and Victoria, northern and coastal areas of Queensland and isolated areas of Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory, south eastern South Australia and western Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 210 millimetres at Oakwood, near the Sunshine Coast of Queensland.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps use data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml
Rainfall for the week ending 8 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 8/04/2015
3 1.2. Temperature anomalies this week
Maximum temperatures were above average over much of northern Australia during the week ending 7 April 2015. Parts of Northern Territory and central Queensland recorded temperatures between 4 and 6 degrees above average for this time of year. Maximum temperatures were slightly below average in parts of southern Western Australia and south west South Australia.
Minimum temperatures were above average over most of Australia during the week ending 7 April 2015. Parts of the country recorded temperatures between 4 and 6 degrees above average for this time of year.
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.
For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 7 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 8/04/2015
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 7 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 8/04/2015
4 1.3. Recent soil moisture percentiles
The maps below show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (0 to 0.2 metres) soil moisture and lower layer (0.2 to 1.5 metres) soil moisture during March 2015. These maps show how modelled soil conditions during March 2015 compare with March conditions modelled during the 30 year reference period (1961 to 1990). Dark green areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the 1961-1990 reference period, and dark brown areas are drier.
The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 0.3 metres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.2 metres) is therefore the most appropriate indication of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated events over longer time periods.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for March 2015 was mostly above average across Western Australia and below average over much of the rest of the country. Across summer cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales relative upper layer soil moisture was variable, ranging from well below average to above average. Across the remainder of the New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia cropping zones relative upper layer soil moisture was predominantly well below average. In Western Australia’s cropping regions, relative upper layer soil moisture was predominantly extremely high with the far south east being the main exception where relative upper layer soil moisture levels were below average.
Upper layer soil moisture for March 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
Relative lower layer soil moisture for March 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across much of northern and central Australia. Across the central Queensland cropping region relative lower layer soil moisture was largely above average. Extremely low relative lower layer soil moisture in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions have spread in spatial extent since February 2015. Southern New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia show variable relative lower layer soil moisture, although levels tend toward below average. Meanwhile, relative lower layer soil moisture levels remain above average across much of South Australia.
5 Lower layer soil moisture for March 2015
Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)
6 1.4. Rainfall deficiencies
Compared to the previous drought statement issued on 4 March 2015, the spatial extent and severity of rainfall deficiencies have increased across southern South Australia and western Victoria for the 9-month period (July 2014 to March 2015). The area affected by serious deficiencies has eased in western Tasmania and cleared in Western Australia. Severe or serious deficiencies persist across the southern half of Queensland's Cape York Peninsula. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 8 April 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 July 2014 to 31 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 01/04/2015
The area affected by serious and severe rainfall deficiencies for the 30-month period (October 2012 to March 2015) have increased in extent and severity in northern, central and western Queensland, northern New South Wales, western Victoria and adjacent parts of south-east South Australia when compared to the previous drought statement issued on 4 March 2015. Above average March rainfall has all but cleared severe deficiencies on the Western Australian coast (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 8 April 2015).
Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 October 2012 to 31 March 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 01/04/2015
7 1.5. Rainfall forecast
The forecast for the next eight days indicates that higher rainfall totals are likely to be restricted to parts of southern Western Australia and western Tasmania, with isolated lighter falls forecast along much of the Australian coastline. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely in parts of southern Western Australia and coastal areas of Far North Queensland.
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 9 to 16 April 2015
©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 8/04/2015
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2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 129 gigalitres (GL) and are at 39 per cent of total capacity. This is 13 percentage points or 2989 GL less than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 9 April 2015 is shown above.
The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
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3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$258 a tonne in the week ending 7 April 2015, compared with US$254 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$174 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2015, compared with US$176 a tonne in the previous week.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$403 a tonne in the week ending 7 April 2015, compared with US$401 a tonne in the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US71.6 cents a pound in the week ending 8 April 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US12.8 cents a pound in the week ending 8 April 2015, 6 per cent higher than the previous week.
Data from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade indicates that Brazil exported around 19.4 million tonnes of sugar (raw equivalent) in the 2014–15 season (April to March), compared with around 22 million tonnes in the previous year.
The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $320 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $301 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $286 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $484 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2015, 3 per cent higher than the previous week.
The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 420 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 3 April 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 425 cents a kilogram and by 5 per cent in Victoria to average 428 cents a kilogram.
The saleyard indicator prices of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell across all states in the week ending 3 April 2015, compared with the previous week. The largest fall was in Western Australia, where the indicator price fell by 7 per cent to average 498 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) while the price declined in South Australia by 6 per cent to 488 cents a kilogram. In eastern states, the indicator price fell by 2 per cent in Victoria and 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 520 cents a kilogram and 517 cents a kilogram, respectively.10
3.2. Selected world indicator prices
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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices
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3.4. Crop indicator prices
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3.5. Livestock indicator prices
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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
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4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx Available water determinations register:
http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia
SA Water:
http://www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/WaterProofingAdelaide/TheRiverMurray/RMOU/Dailyflow.h tm
South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Pigs
Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy Dairy
Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/
