조세지출 분석도구

Chen(2015)은 조세지출 평가를 위한 분석도구로서 원형적 모형(primitive model) 과 포괄적 모형(comprehensive model)으로 분류하였다. 원형적 모형은 직접효과만을 측정하기 위한 전통적 분석모형으로서, 직접적인 세수손실(비용)과 투자의 순변화 (편익)를 측정할 수 있다. 포괄적 모형은 CGE 혹은 IO 분석 모형을 지칭한다. 다만, CGE 혹은 IO 분석 모형을 사용할 수 없다면, 조세자료와 기업들의 재무제표에만 근거한 미시 모의실험(micro simulation) 모형을 통한 분석을 제안한다. 특히, Chen(2015) 은 조세지출의 비용/편익 분석을 위한 가장 이상적인 모형은 IO에 근거한 CGE 모 형이라고 제안한다. 그 이유는 IO는 산업간 연관효과를 고려한 조세지출의 승수효 과 추정에 적합하고, CGE는 조세지출로부터 직･간접적으로 나타나는 초기 변화에 대한 행태적 반응을 포착할 수 있는 장점을 갖고 있기 때문이다.

한편, Chen(2015)에서 주목할 만한 것은 IO와 CGE 모형을 사용할 수 없는 경우 조세지출의 비용/편익 분석을 위한 미시 모의실험 모형의 활용방법과 절차를 비교 적 상세하게 설명하고 있다는 점이다. 이를 위해 필요로 하는 자료는 기업의 재무 자료, 조세자료(국세청)와 소비성향에 근거한 승수효과 산출을 목적으로 한 국민계 정으로 비교적 단순한 편이다. 이에 Chen(2015)에서 제안하는 미시 모의실험 모형 을 활용한 3단계 분석 절차와 내용을 소개한다.

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can be made according to firm-based accounting/reporting, and with a reference to the industry-specific capital-labour ratio by international standards if foreign investors are involved. (Note: the “international” reference is particular important if the targeted industry is new to the country.)

5. Estimate the revenue loss corresponding to tax incentives granted to those investors whose investments are accounted as “redundant.” For example,

Ø If the tax incentive is an income tax exemption (or reduction), then the revenue loss can be estimated by multiplying the taxable income arising from the redundant capital investment by the statutory income tax rate (or the gap between the standard and the reduced income tax rates).

Ø If the tax incentive is an investment tax credit in proportion to the investment size, then the revenue loss is the product of the investment tax credit (in percentage) and the size of the redundant investment.

For this step, the sensitivity parameters may include the redundancy ratio, displacement share, and crowding-out probability. A higher level of any of these three parameters will lead to a lower level of direct, indirect and induced impacts as well as a higher level of revenue loss. And vice versa.

Step 2: Estimating the Indirect Impact

1. Estimate the total purchase of capital goods, including both building materials and machinery and equipment) associated with genuine additional capital investment resulting from Step 1.

2. Estimate the split of the total purchase of capital goods into domestically purchased and imported. Only the domestically purchased capital goods can be counted as the first round of indirect impacts. (This estimate can be made based on firm-based accounting and customs itemized records by importer.)

3. Estimate the economic impact of domestically purchased capital goods in terms of the increased investment and labour inputs required for producing such additional capital goods and the resulting pre-tax profit and labour income. This is also a genuine addition to existing economic activities, and it can be based on accounting and tax filing by existing firms involving the production of these specific capital goods.

4. Estimate the total purchase of material inputs for production, including both raw and processed materials) associated with the genuine additional capital investment resulting from Step 1.

5. Estimate the split of total purchase of material inputs into domestically purchased and imported. Only the domestically purchased materials can be counted as the first round of indirect impact. (This estimate can be made based on firm-based accounting and customs itemized records by importer.)

6. Estimate the economic impact of domestically purchased materials in terms of the increased capital investment and labour inputs required for producing such additional

Ⅱ. 기초자료 분석 및 조사의 주요쟁점 •

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materials and the resulting profit and labour income. This is also a genuine addition to existing economic activities, and it can be based on accounting and tax filing by existing firms involving the production of these specific types of materials

7. Estimate revenue gains by applying the company and personal income tax rates, respectively, to investment profits and labour income generated by the above additional capital-goods- and material-producing activities.

8. Repeat Steps 1-7 as many times as the industrial linkage indicates and existing data allows, in order to account as thoroughly as possible for the indirect economic and revenue impact of the tax incentives.

For this step of estimation, the sensitivity parameters may include the split of any physical/material inputs between those imported and those domestically purchased. The higher share for the imported inputs will lead to lower indirect and induced impacts. And vice versa.

Step 3: Estimating the Induced Impact

1. Estimate the national economic multiplier based on the national accounts. That is, in the national accounts, the national income (Y) based on the expenditure approach provides a clear share of consumption (C), including both consumers’ expenditure and public current spending, within the total income, based on which, the multiplier (= 1/(1-C/Y)) can be derived. The ratio of consumption to income is the marginal propensity to consume, in economics jargon.

2. Estimate the sum of labour incomes resulting from Steps 1 and 2 above, and subtract from this sum the government revenue loss associated with the redundant capital investment estimated in Step 1. The result is additional disposable income attributable to the tax incentive program before the multiplier effect.

3. Estimate the induced impact by multiplying with the national multiplier and additional disposable income obtained above.

For this step of estimation, the sensitivity parameters may include the propensity to consume, which can change in either direction as the national income changes and the social safety net improves. What is relevant here is that, the higher the propensity to consume, the greater the multiplier and hence the greater the induced impact.)

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