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2018.8.1(수)
현 지 정 보
워싱턴주재원제 목 2018. 8월 FOMC 회의 결과
1. 정책금리 결정 배경 및 향후 정책방향
□ 현재의 경제전망에 비추어 정책금리 목표범위를 현 수준(1.75~2.00%)에서 유지
o 여전히 완화적인 통화정책기조는 노동시장 호조세(strong labor market
conditions)를 지원하고 인플레이션이 2% 수준으로 지속 회귀하는 데
도움이 될 것임
□ 향후 정책금리 목표범위 조정의 시기 및 폭에 있어서 FOMC는 연준의 양대 책무와 연관된 경제적 동향과 전망을 평가하여 결정할 것임
o 이를 위해 노동시장 상황, 인플레이션 압력 및 기대 인플레이션 관련 지표, 금융시장 및 글로벌 금융 ․ 경제 여건 등을 평가할 것임
□ 경제활동의 확장세 및 강한 노동시장 여건 유지, 중기시계의 대칭적 2% 물가목표 달성을 위해 지속적․점진적 정책금리 인상이 필요
2. 경제상황 평가
□ 노동시장 여건이 호조세를 지속하는 가운데 경제활동이 강한 상승세*(rising at a strong rate)를 나타냄
* 경제활동 개선에 대한 표현을 한층 강화(18.6월 at a solid rate → 8월 at a strong rate)
◈ 7.31~8.1일 회의에서 FOMC는 정책금리 목표범위를 현 수준에서 유지
(1.75~2.00%)하기로 결정(8인 전원찬성)
o 인플레이션이 2% 수준을 유지하는 가운데 노동시장 호조세가 지속 되고 경제활동 개선세가 한층 강화*된 것으로 평가
* 경제활동 개선에 대한 표현을 한층 강화(18.6월 at a solid rate → 8월 at a strong rate)
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o 강한(strong) 취업자수 증가세가 지속된 가운데 실업률은 낮은 수준을 유지 o 가계지출과 기업투자 모두 강한 증가세 시현(have grown strongly)
o 향후 경제활동에 대한 위험은 대체로 균형(roughly balanced)인 것으로 평가
□ 인플레이션율(전년동월대비)은 2% 수준 유지(remain near 2 percent)
o 장기 기대인플레이션은 대체로 큰 변화 없음
<붙 임>
직전 및 금번 FOMC 정책결정문(Statement) 비교
직전 6월(6.13일) 금번 8월(8.1일)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the
unemployment rate has declined. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending has picked up, while business fixed
investment has continued to grow strongly.
On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent.
Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the
unemployment rate has stayed low.
Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.
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직전 6월(6.13일) 금번 8월(8.1일)
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the
Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee
decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains
accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
