FTA체결관련 임업부문 경쟁력 강화 방안: 산림산업 경쟁력 강화 방안 연구 (2차 연도)

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(1)연구보고 C2009-37 / 2009.12.. 산림산업 경쟁력 강화 방안 연구(2차 연도). FTA체결관련 임업부문 경쟁력 강화 방안 장 이 이 김. 철 경 상 현. 수 일 민 근. 연 구 위 원 초빙연구위원 연 구 위 원 위촉연구원.

(2) 연구 담당 장. 철. 이 이 김. 경 상 현. 수 연 구 위 원 연구총괄, FTA 추진동향, FTA대상국별 임산물 교역동향 및 관세분석, 경쟁력 강화 방안 일 초 빙 연 구 위 원 우리나라 임업 및 임산업현실 민 연 구 위 원 FTA대상국별 임산물 경쟁력비교 및 영향분석 근 위 촉 연 구 원 설문조사결과 분석, 자료정리.

(3) 머 리 말. 최근 국제 통상환경은 양자간 협정인 FTA를 중심으로 한 지역주의가 가속화되고 있다. 해외의존도가 높은 우리나라는 기존 교역 국가들에 대한 안정적 시장 확보와 함께 새로운 시장을 개척하기 위해 적극적으로 FTA를 추진하고 있다. FTA를 체결하면 체결국과의 교역규모가 커져 수출기회가 넓어지는 반면 시장 이 개방되어 수입이 늘어남에 따라 경쟁력이 약한 산업은 상당한 위기에 봉착할 것 으로 보인다.. 임업부문도 예외는 아니므로 예상되는 피해를 최소화하면서 국제경. 쟁력을 갖추기 위한 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 임업부문에서의 통상관련 연구는 대부분 협상에 맞추어져 왔다. 반면 이 연구는 협상타결을 전제로 한 경쟁력 제고에 초점이 맞추어져 있다. 임업부문이 안고 있는 현실적 문제와 협상 대상국과의 교역실태, 경쟁력 등을 분석함으로서 우리나라 임 업의 현주소를 파악하고 있다. 동시에 협상이 타결될 경우 임업부문이 어느 정도의 영향을 받게 되는 지를 대표 품목을 중심으로 추정하고 이를 바탕으로 임업부문의 경쟁력을 강화하기 위한 방안을 제시하고 있다. 시장개방에 적극적으로 대처하기 위해서는 단편적이고 분산적 투자보다는 지속 적이고 집중적인 투자가 필요하다. 이 연구에서 제시된 방안들이 FTA체결에 따른 임업부문 경쟁력 강화를 위한 정책을 마련하고 세부계획을 수립하는데 유용하게 사 용되길 바란다. 이 연구의 원활한 진행을 위해 아낌없이 지원을 해 준 산림청 산림정책과 및 산 림경영소득과, 현장의 지자체 관계자들과 전문가 및 관련 산업 종사자 여러분들께 깊은 감사를 드린다.. 2009. 12. 한국농촌경제연구원장 오 세 익.

(4) 요. 약. 최근 세계 통상환경은 DDA협상이 난항을 겪으면서 양자간 협정인 FTA를 중심 으로 한 지역주의가 가속화되고 있으며, 전세계 교역량의 50% 이상이 지역무역협정 내 교역으로 이루어지고 있다. 이러한 상황 속에서 해외수출의존도가 높은 우리나 라는 해외시장에서의 생존과 새로운 시장개척을 위해 동시다발적으로 FTA를 추진 하였으며 현재 15개국과 FTA를 체결하였다. 최근에는 미국, 인도와 서명을 하였고 EU와는 가서명을, 그리고 캐나다를 비롯해 15개국과 협상을 진행하는 등 빠르게 대 처하고 있다. FTA를 체결하면 역내 교역이 늘어나는 무역전환효과와 역내 생산이 늘어나는 무역창출효과로 인해 국가경제에 크게 기여하게 된다. 그러나 국제 경쟁력이 낮은 국내 임산업은 상당한 영향을 받을 것으로 예상되므로 피해를 최소화하면서 경쟁력 을 갖추기 위한 연구가 필요하다. 이 연구의 목적은 EU, 캐나다, 중국과의 FTA체결이 임업부문에 미치는 영향을 파악하고 이를 바탕으로 임업부문 경쟁력을 강화하기 위한 대책을 마련하는데 있 다. 이를 위해 먼저 FTA 추진동항과 과제, 임업부문의 국내 실태, FTA체결대상국가 와의 교역동향, 경쟁력비교 및 파급효과를 살펴보았다. 전문가(학계, 재배자, 연구계, 산업계 등) 137명을 대상으로 임업경쟁력결정요인을 조사, 분석하였다. 그리고 임업 부문(forest sector)을 단기소득임산물(non-timber products)과 목재류(timber)로 구분한 다 음 향후 FTA체결을 대비하여 각각의 산업부문에서 요구되는 경쟁력 강화방안을 제 시하였다. 주요 연구 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 임업부문경쟁력에 가장 큰 영향을 미치 는 것은 정부의 역할인 것으로 나타났고 경쟁력의 현재수준이 가장 낮은 것은 임업 연관 산업육성인 것으로 나타났다. 단기소득임산물부문에서 경쟁력 강화를 위한 주 요 핵심과제는 지원정책의 중요도에 따른 차등화, 생산 및 유통조직의 규모화와 조. - iii -.

(5) 직화, 안정성관리제도 구축, 전문 인력육성 및 활용시스템구축, 주산지를 중심으로 한 임업클러스터체계 구축, 현장중심의 연구개발 및 지속적 기술보급체계 구축, 유 망소득품목 발굴 및 체계적인 관리와 보급, 수출시장의 다변화와 체계화 등인 것으 로 나타났다. 목재류부문에서 경쟁력 강화를 위한 주요 핵심과제는 국산재의 안정 적 공급체계 구축, 품질인증제 도입, 원목공급선의 다변화와 해외조림을 통한 원목 수급안정 도모, 국산재를 활용한 한국형 목조주택 개발 및 보급, 종합목재산업단지 구축을 통한 산업경쟁력 강화 등인 것으로 나타났다.. - iv -.

(6) Abstract. Strategies to strengthen competitiveness in forestry sector prepared for FTAs. Regional trade agreement(RTA) including FTA is the main stream of world trade, while DDA negotiation has a rough passage. Over 50% of the world trade amount is interchanged between countries who conclude RTAs. Korea, who is heavily depends on export, has actively engaged in FTA negotiations, and 15 FTAs have entered into force. Korea signed with The United States, and agreed to work toward singing the agreement with EU. Korea is negotiating FTAs with 15 countries including Canada. Conclusions of FTAs contribute to national economy by increasing amount of intra-trade with trade diversion effects and by increasing production with trade creation effects. Forestry industry, however, which has weak international competitiveness, is expected to have great impacts. It is necessary to study to minimize the impacts and to be ready for the competition, consequently. This study is designed to estimate and understand the impacts on Korean forestry sector, and to prepare strategies to strengthen the competitiveness if Korea concludes FTAs with EU, Canada and China. The contents includes current aspects of FTA and tasks, domestic conditions of the forestry sector, trends of trades with those countries, and comparisons of competitiveness and impacts. Survey and analysis have done to find determinants of forestry competitiveness against 137 specialists in colleges, research institutes and industry, and producers. Finally strategies are suggested to strengthen the competitiveness required in forestry sector, which is comprised of timber as well as non-timber products, for the FTAs. The chief results are summarized as follows. The main effect to forestry competitiveness comes from the government, and the weakest area of competitiveness is extension of the forestry industry currently. The main tasks to strengthen competitiveness of non-timber products are differentiation of government support according to the importance of the undertaking, enlargement and systematization of production and circulation organizations, construction of safety management system, preparation of bring up and utilizing system for specialists, building cluster system focusing on the main production areas, research development focusing on the field and continuous distribution of technologies, development, management and distribution of promising products, and diversification of export markets. For timber industry the tasks are as follows: constructing a stable system of domestic log supply, introduction. - v -.

(7) of quality certification system, diversification and stabilization of log supply by oversea plantation, development and distribution of wooden house made of domestic log, build a wood industry complex. Researchers: Cheol-Su Chang, Kyong-Il Lee, Sang-Min Lee, Hyeon-Geun Kim Email Adress: cschang@krei.re.kr. - vi -.

(8) 차. 례. 제1장 연구개요 1. 연구의 필요성과 목적 ································································································ 1 2. 국내외 연구동향 및 선행연구 검토 ········································································· 2 3. 주요 연구내용 및 범위 ······························································································ 4 4. 연구 추진전략 및 방법 ······························································································ 5. 제2장 우리나라의 FTA추진 동향과 임업부문 실태 1. FTA 추진동향과 과제 ································································································ 6 2. 우리나라 임업 및 임산업의 현실 ············································································· 9. 제3장 FTA대상국과의 교역 동향 및 관세 비교 1. FTA대상국과의 임산물 교역 동향 ········································································· 25 2. FTA 대상국별 임산물 품목분류 및 관세체계 비교 ············································· 38. 제4장 FTA대상국과의 임산물경쟁력 비교 및 영향 분석 1. FTA대상국과의 임산물 경쟁력 비교 ···································································· 63 2. FTA체결에 따른 임업부문 영향 분석 ···································································· 81. 제5장 FTA체결관련 임업부문 경쟁력 강화방안 1. 임업경쟁력 결정 요인 분석 ····················································································· 91 2. 단기소득임산물부문 경쟁력 강화 방안 ································································ 106 3. 목재부문경쟁력 강화 방안 ····················································································· 123 부록 1 FTA대상국별 임산물 품목별 시장점유율, MCA지수 ······························ 132 부록 2 세계 및 FTA대상국의 목질패널 수급구조 ·············································· 142. - vii -.

(9) 부록 3 캐나다 산림자원과 목구조산업 ··································································· 164 부록 4 임업경쟁력결정요인분석을 위한 전문가조사표 ········································ 188 부록 5 품목별 임업경쟁력강화를 위한 전문가조사표 ·········································· 192 참고문헌 ······················································································································· 196. - viii -.

(10) 표 차 례. 제2장 표 2 - 1. 우리나라의 FTA 추진 현황 ····································································· 8 표 2 - 2. 우리나라 사유림의 규모별 현황 ····························································· 9 표 2 - 3. 우리나라 사유림소유구조의 현황 ························································· 10 표 2 - 4. 전․겸업별 임가 ····················································································· 12 표 2 - 5. 임가 경영주의 연령별 산림소유별 임가 ·············································· 13 표 2 - 6. 합판산업 현황 ························································································· 14 표 2 - 7. 파티클보드산업 현황 ·············································································· 15 표 2 - 8. 섬유판산업 현황 ····················································································· 16 표 2 - 9. 밤 산업 현황 ··························································································· 17 표 2-10. 표고버섯산업 현황 ·················································································· 19 표 2-11. 떫은 감 산업 현황 ·················································································· 21 표 2-12. 대추산업 현황 ························································································· 22 표 2-13. 잣 산업 현황 ··························································································· 24 제3장 표 3 - 1. 한-EU 임산물 교역 동향 ······································································· 26 표 3 - 2. 한국의 대EU국별 수출 동향 ······························································· 27 표 3 - 3. 한국의 대 EU국별 수입동향 ································································· 29 표 3 - 4. 한-캐나다 임산물 교역 동향 ································································· 31 표 3 - 5. 한-중 임산물 교역 동향 ········································································· 34 표 3 - 6. EU의 단기소득임산물 품목 분류 및 관세체계 ··································· 40 표 3 - 7. EU의 석재류 품목 분류 및 관세체계 ················································ 41 표 3 - 8. EU의 목재류 품목 분류 및 관세체계 ·················································· 43 표 3 - 9. 캐나다 단기소득임산물 품목 분류 및 관세체계 ································· 45 표 3-10. 캐나다의 석재류 품목 분류 및 관세 체계 ······································ 46 표 3-11. 캐나다 목재류 품목 분류 및 관세 체계 ·············································· 48. - ix -.

(11) 표 3-12. 중국의 단기소득임산물 품목 분류 및 관세체계 ································· 50 표 3-13. 중국의 석재류 품목 분류 및 관세체계 ·············································· 52 표 3-14. 중국의 목재류 품목분류 및 관세 체계 ················································ 53 표 3-15. 한국의 단기소득임산물 품목분류 및 관세체계 ··································· 55 표 3-16. 한국의 석재류 품목분류 및 관세체계 ·················································· 57 표 3-17. 한국의 목재류 품목분류 및 관세체계 ·················································· 59 표 3-18. 한국과 FTA 협상 대상국간 품목 수 및 평균 실행세율 비교 ·········· 60 표 3-19. FTA 협상 대상국과의 품목분류 및 관세체계 비교 ··························· 61 제4장 표 4 - 1. EU 단기소득임산물의 한국시장 경쟁력 ·············································· 65 표 4 - 2. EU 목재류의 한국시장 경쟁력 ··························································· 65 표 4 - 3. 캐나다 목재류의 한국시장 경쟁력 ······················································· 67 표 4 - 4. 중국 단기소득임산물의 한국시장 경쟁력 ·········································· 68 표 4 - 5. 중국 목재류의 한국시장 경쟁력 ························································· 70 표 4 - 6. 단기소득 임산물의 국가별ㆍ품목별 MCA지수 비교 ······················· 72 표 4 - 7. 단기소득 임산물의 국가별ㆍ품목별 수입시장점유율 비교 ·············· 72 표 4 - 8. 주요단기소득 임산물의 FTA협상대상국의 수입액 비중 ···················· 73 표 4 - 9. 목재류의 국가별ㆍ품목별 MCA지수 비교 ········································ 74 표 4-10. 목재류의 국가별ㆍ품목별 수입시장점유율 비교 ································· 75 표 4-11. 주요 수입목재류의 품목별 FTA협상대상국의 수입액 비중 ············ 80 표 4-12. 한-중 FTA체결에 따른 대추 생산감소액 ··········································· 84 표 4-13. 한-중 FTA체결에 따른 잣 생산감소액 ·············································· 84 표 4-14. 한-중 FTA체결에 따른 표고버섯 생산감소액 ··································· 85 표 4-15. 제재목(침엽수) 수요함수 계측결과 ······················································ 86 표 4-16. 제재목(침엽수) 공급함수 계측결과 ······················································ 86 표 4-17. 3개국 FTA 체결에 따른 제재목(침엽수) 생산감소액 ························ 86 표 4-18. 합판 가격 반응함수 계측결과 ······························································· 87 표 4-19. 3개국 FTA 체결에 따른 합판 생산감소액 ·········································· 87 표 4-20. 섬유판 수요함수 계측결과 ···································································· 88 표 4-21. 섬유판 공급함수 계측결과 ··································································· 88. - x -.

(12) 표 4-22. 3개국 FTA 체결에 따른 섬유판 생산감소액 ······································ 88 표 4-23. 파티클보드 수요함수 계측결과 ····························································· 89 표 4-24. 파티클보드 공급함수 계측결과 ··························································· 89 표 4-25. 3개국 FTA 체결에 따른 파티클보드 생산감소액 ······························· 89 표 4-26. 3개국 FTA 체결에 따른 영향분석 결과 ·············································· 90 제5장 표 5 - 1. 주요 조사내용 ························································································· 92 표 5 - 2. 임업경쟁력 결정 요인의 영향력과 현재수준 ······································ 93 표 5 - 3. 단기소득임산물 설문조사 개요 ··························································· 106 표 5 - 4. 단기소득임산물 재배 및 생산의 문제점 우선순위 ··························· 107 표 5 - 5. 표준화된 단기소득임산물 재배 및 생산의 문제점 우선순위 ·········· 108 표 5 - 6. 단기소득임산물의 재배 및 생산 지원정책의 우선순위 ··················· 109 표 5 - 7. 표준화된 단기소득임산물 재배 및 생산 지원정책의 우선순위 ······ 109 표 5 - 8. 세부지원정책의 현재 수준 ··································································· 110 표 5 - 9. 가공 및 유통부문 문제점의 우선순위 ················································ 111 표 5-10. 표준화된 가공 및 유통부문 우선순위 ················································ 111 표 5-11. 가공 및 유통부문 지원정책의 우선순위 ············································ 112 표 5-12. 표준화된 가공 및 유통부문 지원정책의 우선순위 ··························· 112 표 5-13. 가공 및 유통부문 지원정책의 현재 수준 ·········································· 113 표 5-14. 임업 클러스터의 적용 유형 ································································· 118 표 5-15. 단기소득임산물부문 경쟁력강화를 위한 중점과제 및 세부사업 실천 계획 ·· 122 표 5-16. 우리나라와 FTA체결 대상 국가의 합판 및 보드 생산비율 (2007년 기준) ··· 124 표 5-17. 주요 국가의 합판 및 보드 수출비율 (2007년 기준) ························ 125 표 5-18. 합판용 원목 수입량 ·············································································· 126 표 5-19. 파티클보드 종류별 원자재 공급 ························································· 127 표 5-20. 섬유판 종류별 원자재 공급 ································································· 127 표 5-21. 목재류부문 경쟁력강화를 위한 중점과제 및 세부사업 실천계획 ··· 131. - xi -.

(13) 그 림 차 례. 제2장 그림 2 - 1. 지역무역협정의 종류와 포괄 범위 ······················································ 7 그림 2 - 2. 우리나라 산림의 목재생산을 위한 영급구조 ··································· 11 그림 2 - 3. 국내 원목공급 추이 ············································································ 11 그림 2 - 4. 합판의 수급추이 ·················································································· 14 그림 2 - 5. 파티클보드의 수급추이 ······································································ 15 그림 2 - 6. 섬유판의 수급추이 ·············································································· 16 그림 2 - 7. 밤의 수급추이 ····················································································· 18 그림 2 - 8. 표고버섯 수급추이 ·············································································· 20 그림 2 - 9. 떫은 감 수급추이 ················································································ 21 그림 2-10. 대추의 수급추이 ·················································································· 22 그림 2-11. 잣의 수급 추이 ··················································································· 24 제3장 그림 3 - 1. 대EU국가별 목재류의 연평균 수출액(2004～2008) ························ 27 그림 3 - 2. 대EU국가별 단기소득임산물의 연평균 수출액(2004～2008) ········· 28 그림 3 - 3. 대EU국가별 목재류의 연평균 수입액(2004～2008) ························ 30 그림 3 - 4. 대EU국가별 단기소득임산물의 연평균수입액(2004∼2008) ··········· 30 그림 3 - 5. 목재류의 대 캐나다 수출 추이 ························································· 32 그림 3 - 6. 단기소득임산물의 대 캐나다 수출 추이 ·········································· 32 그림 3 - 7. 목재류의 대 캐나다 수입추이 ··························································· 33 그림 3 - 8. 목재류의 대중국 수출 추이 ······························································· 35 그림 3 - 9. 단기소득임산물의 대중 수출 추이 ···················································· 36 그림 3-10. 목재류의 대중국 수입추이 ································································· 37 그림 3-11. 단기소득임산물의 대중국 수입 추이 ················································ 37 제4장 그림 4 - 1. 국내산과 수입산 임산물 시장 ··························································· 82 - xii -.

(14) 제5장 그림 5 - 1. 임업경쟁력 결정 요인의 군집분석 ···················································· 94 그림 5 - 2. 생산요소 조건의 영향력 ···································································· 95 그림 5 - 3. 생산요소 조건의 현재 수준 ······························································· 95 그림 5 - 4. 생산요소 조건의 군집 분석 ····························································· 96 그림 5 - 5. 정부 역할의 영향력 ············································································ 97 그림 5 - 6. 정부 역할의 현재 수준 ······································································ 97 그림 5 - 7. 정부역할의 군집 분석 ········································································ 98 그림 5 - 8. 수요 여건의 영향력 ············································································ 99 그림 5 - 9. 수요 여건의 현재 수준 ······································································ 99 그림 5-10. 수요여건의 군집 분석 ······································································ 100 그림 5-11. 연관 산업의 영향력 ·········································································· 101 그림 5-12. 연관 산업의 현재 수준 ···································································· 101 그림 5-13. 연관산업의 군집 분석 ······································································ 102 그림 5-14. 임업경영체 전략, 구조 및 경쟁양상의 영향력 ······························ 103 그림 5-15. 임업경영체 전략, 구조 및 경쟁양상의 현재 수준 ························ 104 그림 5-16. 임업경영체의 전략, 구조 및 경쟁양상의 군집 분석 ···················· 105. - xiii -.

(15) 1. 제. 장. 연구 개요. 1. 연구의 필요성과 목적. 1.1. 연구의 필요성 최근 세계 통상환경은 도하개발어젠다(DDA) 협상이 난항을 겪고 있는 가운데 많은 국가들이 양자간 협정인 자유무역협정(FTA: Free Trade Agreement)을 중심으로 한 지 역주의가 가속화되고 있다. 2008년 12월 현재 GATT, WTO에 통보된 지역무역협정은 총 230개 이며 WTO 출범(1995.1) 이후 매년 급속히 확산되어, 2007년 기준 전세계 교 역량의 50% 이상이 지역무역협정내 교역으로 이루어지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 현재 발효 중인 197개의 지역협정을 체결시기별로 살펴보면, 70년대 이전 5개, 70년대 12개, 80년대 10개에 불과하던 것이 90년대 64개, 2000년 이후 120개가 체결되어 최근 지역 주의의 광범위한 영향을 여실히 보여주고 있다1. 우리나라는 2003년 이래 세계적인 FTA확산추세에 대응하여 해외시장을 안정적으로 확보하고 개방을 통해 국가 경쟁력을 강화하기 위해 동시다발적으로 FTA를 추진해 왔 다. 그 결과 칠레, 싱가포르, EFTA, ASEAN 등 15개국과 FTA를 체결하여 발효되었고 미국(2007.6) 및 인도(2009.8)와 FTA협상을 타결하고 서명하였으며 EU와는 최근 협상 을 종결하고 가서명(2009.10.15)하였다. 현재 캐나다, 멕시코, GCC, 뉴질랜드, 호주, 페 루 등 11개국과는 협상을 진행 중에 있다. FTA를 체결하게 되면 역내국간 상품교역이 늘어나는 무역전환효과와 생산요소가 비. 1 외교통상부 자유무역협정(www.fta.go.kr).. - 1 -.