1 Report for

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Daily Report for Monday, April 24, 2017

1 Report for

Monday,

April 24, 2017

Ordibehesht 4, 1396

* Highlights, Page 2

* News Briefs, Page 3

* Destination of grey votes. Page 3

* Huge investment on cyberspace! Page 3

* Ghalibaf’s candidacy. Page 4

* Erdogan becomes dictator! Page 5

* Erdogan to toughen anti-Iran stances. Page 10

* Ahmadinejad’s disqualification; good news or bad news? Page 12

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2 Highlights

 • A commentator says Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who secured sweeping powers in the country’s recent referendum, is moving towards dictatorship via democracy. (See Page 5)

 • Erdogan may ratchet up his anti-Iran rhetoric and try to counter Tehran’s interests in the Middle East following his victory in the recent referendum.

(See Page 10)

 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been barred to run for office. Both Principlists and Reformist are rid of an unpredictable rival for now, but the Guardian Council has exposed itself to a plethora of questions. (See Page 12)

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3 Briefs

* Farsi-language Iranian Students’

News Agency (ISNA) posts the following schedule for live presidential debates, which would be broadcast Iranian state TV channel One and Radio Iran:

 1st debate, socio-economic:

Friday, April 28, 16:00;

 2nd debate, political issues:

Friday, May 5, 16:00;

 3rd debate, economic issues:

Tuesday, May 12, 16:00.

* Farsi-language newspaper Khorasan writes that in a joint statement with his former deputy and ally Hamid Baqaei, Ahmadinejad clearly declared that neither him, nor Baqaei, will support any of the six candidates in May 19 presidential election.

* Farsi-language newspaper Etemad writes that the head of Election Headquarters of Tehran Province Shahaboddin Chavoshi says, “From among the 3,000 applicants who registered to run for Tehran City Council election, 2,722 were qualified to run. 242 applicants were not qualified, and 36 withdrew from running for the election.”

* Farsi-language Iranian Students’

News Agency (ISNA) writes that Iran’s police chief, Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari, said that the Law Enforcement plans to deploy 300,000 forces across all Iranian provinces to ensure that the May 19 presidential and local elections will be held safely with the assistance of the people and related domestic organizations.

* Farsi-language newspaper Khorasan writes that there are reports that Saeed Jalili is being considered as First Vice President in Ebrahim Raisi’s cabinet, if latter won the presidential election.

Destination of grey votes

Farsi-language reformist newspaper Etemad writes that the reformists, pro-Rouhani parties and moderates form one side of the presidential election.

President Rouhani is their main candidate, while Jahangiri has become presidential candidate to offer support to Rouhani and also defend the Rouhani government during the presidential campaign.

Reformist Mostafa Hashemitaba is considered to be a moderate politician and a technocrat. He has not adopted a critical approach towards Rouhani government.

The remaining three presidential candidates – Raisi, Ghalibaf and Mostafa Mir-Salim – have criticized the Rouhani government’s performance. These three can be considered as one general faction in the presidential candidates’ face-off [against Rouhani]. It remains to be seen who the majority of principalists will choose between Ghalibaf and Raisi.

Former Tehran mayor and a reformist politician Ghulamhussein Karbaschi says that he doubts whether any of the three principalist presidential candidates would withdraw in favor of each other.

Karbaschi thinks that it possible that ultimately the Iranian voters may have to choose either between Rouhani and at least two of the principalist presidential candidates.

Huge investment on cyberspace!

Farsi-language hardline conservative newspaper Kayhan writes that the Rouhani government has been hugely investing on social network websites for some time now.

A new messaging app by the name of “Wispi” has been started with the financial support of the Rouhani

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government.

A sum of 80 billion tomans was paid to its creator to disrupt Telegram messaging system, in order to encourage [Telegram]

users to migrate to Sany software.

This shows that they intent to take full control of the messaging network. This project was halted due to unknown reasons.

What is clear is that supporters of Rouhani’s government deemed the project to be too troublesome because they could not provide sufficient transparency and justification to the public.

Therefore, they resorted to using Telegram’s various channels, such as sports, cooking, and recreation. This way, they thought, they could continue their work unsupervised and somehow disrupt the state affairs.

Ghalibaf’s candidacy

Farsi-language news websites write that Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has registered as presidential candidate for the third time. His previous two presidential bids were unsuccessful. In the previous presidential election, he was able to get about four million votes.

When the principalists’ umbrella coalition Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces started considering potential candidates from the principalists’ camp, Ghalibaf’s name was mentioned as one of the main contenders. Before he and Ebrahim Raisi registered as presidential

candidates, there were conflicting reports about whether he would register as candidate or withdraw in favor of Raisi.

He has served as Tehran mayor for the past 12 years. Today he has two big scandals surrounding his mayorship:

allocation of exorbitant properties to his allies and the Plasco Building disaster mismanagement.

BBC Persian news website writes that his style of election campaign in the previous election alienated many of the conservative principalists. His campaign was targeted towards the Iranian youth, mostly those seen as modern rather than the religious ones. He even wore t-shirts.

When he was the police chief, he was credited with modernizing police services to the public. He was also credited with advocating excessive use of force against protesting students in 1989.

Iranian news media consider him as the main rival to President Rouhani. He seems to be presenting himself as a ‘jihadi manager’ [in line with Ayatollah Khamenei’s direction that officials should pursue economic development as a religious jihad or crusade].

He has made big claims in recent days:

create five million jobs, that Iran’s growth national income would grow 2.5 times, that he would change Iran’s taxation system to the benefit of 96% of the population in the first four years of his presidency. He also promised that he would draw up comprehensive and detailed programs to ‘immediately’ solve the problems of the economically vulnerable Iranians.

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5 Erdogan becomes dictator by climbing up

ladder of democracy!

 A commentator says Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who secured sweeping powers in the country’s recent referendum, is moving towards dictatorship via democracy.

 The constitutional referendum in Turkey was held at a time when its outcome was promising for neither side, even for President Erdogan who won the contest.

 Erdogan sees the challenging referendum held in his country as a triumph.

 Erdogan announced his goal after he assumed power as President through popular vote.

 Moreover, the narrow margin of votes between the rival camps indicates that if the referendum had been held under normal circumstances, Erdogan would have lost.

 If we consider Mustafa Kemal Ataturk as the founder of the first Republic of Turkey, the recent referendum has made Erdogan the founder of the second Republic.

 The current situation of Turkey both at home and abroad shows an increase in Erdogan’s powers could further deepen the bipolar atmosphere inside the country.

 Authoritarianism, sectarianism, and economic crisis are three factors that amount to the Achilles’ heel of Turkey under Erdogan.

 Before the voting, Erdogan pressurized his opponents, and after it was held, he announced publicly that those who voted “no” are not equal to those voted “yes.”

These people stand accused of having links with Fethullah Gulen, who was considered Erdogan’s ally before 2013 and somehow was Erdogan’s mentor.

Farsi-language reformist newspaper Etemad: A commentator says Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who secured sweeping powers in the country’s recent referendum, is moving towards dictatorship via democracy.

The constitutional referendum in Turkey was held at a time when its outcome was promising for neither side, even for President Erdogan who won the contest. Now the post-plebiscite situation in Turkey is a very tough and sensitive one. Many believe

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social rifts in the country are widening, which would strongly affect Ankara’s foreign relations. To discuss that further, the Etemad newspaper has interviewed Sadeq Maleki, an expert on Turkish affairs, who has shared his views on the different dimensions and possible ramifications of the referendum.

How Erdogan emerged victorious in referendum

Erdogan sees the challenging referendum held in his country as a triumph. However, even if impartial observers regard it as a victory, it is a weak one. The plebiscite was held against the backdrop of mass arrests following the abortive coup. Pressure piled up on the opposition so much so that

one would think Turkey is gripped by another coup in the wake of the first one. One of the key objectives that Erdogan has pursued since 2002 has been to change the country’s constitution and turn its parliamentary system into a presidential one.

Erdogan announced his goal after he assumed power as President through popular vote.

He cashed in on the post-coup climate and removed his opponents. If these opponents were in power today, we wouldn’t be witnessing such a restructuring. He managed to lay the groundwork for changing the parliamentary system to a presidential one by garnering just over 51 percent of the vote. So, one should bear in mind that the referendum was held under a state of emergency regarded as a military-security rule.

Given the security atmosphere, especially in the Kurdish-dominated regions, Erdogan managed to secure the votes he needed by pressing for and achieving the considerations he had in mind.

All in all, one can say the Turkish referendum was an engineered vote. Moreover, the narrow margin of votes between the rival camps indicates that if the referendum had been held under normal circumstances, Erdogan would have lost. Erdogan’s narrow victory has prompted impartial circles and his opponents to seriously raise the possibility of vote rigging. Opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has called for a recount of 60 percent of the ballots. He has also demanded the votes which were

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supposed to be declared null and void, but were tallied, be removed from the counting process.

With this referendum, Turkey in fact entered a second republic phase. If we consider Mustafa Kemal Atatürk as the founder of the first Republic of Turkey, the recent referendum has made Erdogan the founder of the second Republic. The only difference is that the powers of Erdogan, who is a political and non-military figure, will be much more than the authority of Atatürk, who was a military man. This comes as Erdogan has time and again accused Atatürk of being a despot.

Dream of Ottoman Empire posing threat to Turkey, region

Erdogan moved toward success by climbing up the ladder of democracy. However, as his performance has shown, especially since 2011, he has failed to remain stable on the path of democracy. The current situation of Turkey both at home and abroad shows an increase in Erdogan’s powers could further deepen the bipolar atmosphere inside the country. Irrespective of Turkey’s internal issues, sweeping presidential powers can affect the crises in Syria and Iraq.

One of the contributors to the crises in the two countries has been Erdogan’s performance. Polls show if Erdogan does not change tack, and given his past performance in the Middle East, the situation will become more critical. A powerful Erdogan will be dangerous to both Turkey and the Middle East. Experience shows dictators mostly seek to achieve their ambitions rather than considering what is good for people. Most dictators crave for power. Erdogan’s performance could partly be inspired by his dream of reviving the Ottoman Empire. But one should bear in mind that history is there to serve as an object lesson to us. The continuation of the policies that Erdogan has pursued, especially since 2011, will be detrimental to both Turkish people and regional nations.

Authoritarianism, sectarianism,

economic crisis to cost Turkey dearly

Authoritarianism, sectarianism, and economic crisis are three factors that amount to the Achilles’ heel of Turkey under Erdogan. Turkey will have to pay a heavy price for authoritarianism and marginalising the opposition. For instance, a kind of civil war is going on in the southeast of the country. It is in civil strife where tanks and personnel carriers make their presence felt. The army went into action with its tanks in some

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areas. We witnessed the shelling and bombardment of Kurdish opponents as part of the crackdown on voices of dissent. Erdogan has announced loud and clear that Ankara killed some 6,000 opponents last year. The figure is even higher than the number of those killed at the height of conflicts between Turkey and Kurds in past decades.

This is the result of a gap caused by Erdogan. Statistics show cities and areas near the Mediterranean and the Sea of Marmara, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir voted “no” in the plebiscite. The social gap can adversely affect the performance of the Erdogan administration in the future. The gap will be more tangible if economic and social crises spread as well. At the moment, signs of an economic crisis are emerging. The value of the Turkish Lira against foreign currencies has decreased compared to the past.

The unemployment rate is on the rise, and investment in the country has dropped.

These are not good signs for Turkey. The most important measure on Erdogan’s track record which has secured his 15-year rule has been his successful economic plans. But at the moment, this brilliant background has been tarnished in certain sectors, and if his authoritarian approach continues, it can deal a blow to the position of Erdogan and Turkey on the international stage in the long run.

Elimination of opponents affected referendum

Keeping opponents out of the political arena under the pretext that they helped stage the abortive coup has affected the plebiscite. Before the voting, Erdogan pressurized his opponents, and after it was held, he announced publicly that those who voted “no”

are not equal to those voted “yes.” It should be mentioned that some 60,000 people have been apprehended and dismissed from their jobs on Erdogan’s orders since the coup.

We have witnessed many coups in Turkey, but none has been associated with so many arrests as we are witnessing now. The referendum has been held at a time when Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of the left-wing pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), is behind bars. Many leftist and rightist and even Islamist figures whose articles could influence millions of people are now in prison.

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These people stand accused of having links with Fethullah Gülen, who was considered Erdogan’s ally before 2013 and somehow was Erdogan’s mentor. Even Erdogan removed many of his opponents from the political scene with Gülen’s help.

Iran-Turkey ties after referendum

The language that Erdogan has used about Iran in recent months has been inappropriate and not the kind of language that a president would use. Erdogan has publicly accused Iran of imposing sectarian and religion-based policies based on Persianism.

This comes as Erdogan himself is well known for using such policies and has pursued the same approaches in Iraq and Syria as well as in his own country. Even when Erdogan talks about his regional policies, he gets into Iran’s sectarian issues. The danger is predictable: Erdogan may meddle in Iran’s internal affairs and further complicate the existing tensions with his interference.

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1 0 Erdogan to toughen anti-Iran stances

 Erdogan may ratchet up his anti-Iran rhetoric and try to counter Tehran’s interests in the Middle East following his victory in the recent referendum, an Iranian newspaper reports.

 The Iranian newspaper Vaghaye Ettefaghieh has, in a Farsi article, discussed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s anti-Iran comments, particularly his claims about the Islamic Republic’s efforts to spread ‘Persianism’ in the Middle East.

 In recent months, Erdogan has made some strongly-worded comments about Iran and its alleged role in Middle East crises.

 In an interview with Al Jazeera, he claimed Iran is pursuing a policy of expansionism and Persianism in the region, which, he said, runs counter to Islamic teachings.

 He will also step up his efforts to counter Iran’s interests in the Middle East and turn Turkey into a regional hegemon.

Vaghaye Ettefaghieh reformist newspaper: Erdogan may ratchet up his anti-Iran rhetoric and try to counter Tehran’s interests in the Middle East following his victory in the recent referendum, an Iranian newspaper reports.

The Iranian newspaper Vaghaye Ettefaghieh has, in a Farsi article, discussed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s anti-Iran comments, particularly his claims about the Islamic Republic’s efforts to spread ‘Persianism’ in the Middle East.

In recent months, Erdogan has made some strongly-worded comments about Iran and its alleged role in Middle East crises. Especially after his victory in a nationwide referendum on changing Turkey’s political system from parliamentary to a presidential one, Erdogan seems to be cherishing neo-Ottomanic ideas more than ever before.

In his thoughts, Erdogan has formed a dual-track mentality based on a Shiite-Sunni and Persian-Turk division, which could be compared to Ottomanic-Safavid rivalries over the past centuries.

A testament to that are Erdogan’s recent remarks after his victory in the plebiscite on constitutional reforms held on April 16, 2017. In his harshly-worded comments, the

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Turkish president once again leveled accusations against Iran. In an interview with Al Jazeera, he claimed Iran is pursuing a policy of expansionism and Persianism in the region, which, he said, runs counter to Islamic teachings. He said Islam invites Muslims to remain united, and added such behaviour and approaches “bother us.”

Erdogan asked who the Popular Mobilization Forces (also known as al-Hashd al- Shaabi) in Iraq are, and who supports them. He claimed they are a terrorist group despite the fact that the Iraqi Parliament has approved them, and added one should note who the group’s supporters are. He further claimed, “Such behaviour annoys us.

We are Muslims. Our religion is not ethnicity.”

He said Tehran and Ankara have age-old and historical relations, and “I wish our relations wouldn’t have got into the current situation.” The Turkish president claimed Iran has special plans for Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon and has entered those countries in order to establish a Persian powerbase there. This, he said, is very important and should be studied carefully. He said he hopes Iran will roll back its policy, and added Turkey wouldn’t like an Islamic country to be its enemy. Erdogan said “We should join hands and stand side by side and not show any bias toward religion.” He said “what brings us together is Islam, and this is something the Muslim world needs today.”

The tone of Erdogan’s comments clearly shows that at this juncture, he has found a good opportunity to express his neo-Ottomanic ideas and thoughts which conform to the principles of the Ottoman rule. Therefore, we can predict that Erdogan will, in the near future, ratchet up his criticism of, and harshly-worded comments against Iran. He will also step up his efforts to counter Iran’s interests in the Middle East and turn Turkey into a regional hegemon.

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1 2 Ahmadinejad’s disqualification;

good news or bad news?

 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s ex-president who had run in a bid to regain

presidency, was handed disqualification by the Guardian Council on Thursday evening.

 Ahmadinejad’s media advisor Ali-Akbar Javanfekr immediately issued a statement, in which he said the Guardian Council had relieved Ahmadinejad and Baqaei of the burden of duty.

 Recounting instances in which Ahmadinejad hesitated to comply with the Supreme Leader’s demands and the lawsuits currently underway with accusations against the former president of economic corruption, Abdi questioned the Guardian Council’s vote on the grounds that it lacked a clear political or judicial rationale and indicated negligence on the part of the parliament and the Judiciary, at the time of

Ahmadinejad’s presidency.

 Even prior to Ahmadinejad’s disqualification, some Principlists had openly pressed the Guardian Council to bar him over his lack of belief in the fundamental principles of the Islamic Republic.

 Former MP Ahmad Tavakoli famously wrote a letter to the Council, saying Ahmadinejad had no adherence to velayat-e motlaqeh-ye faqih, Absolute Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, a Shia Islam theory put to practice in Iran’s Constitution, mandating compliance with the Supreme Leader.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s ex-president who had run in a bid to regain presidency, was handed disqualification by the Guardian Council on Thursday evening.

Ahmadinejad had signaled his registration was a push to boost chances for his former aide Hamid Baqaei to be allowed to run. However, the Guardian Council refused to qualify him, either. In his recently resumed series of press conferences and interviews, Ahmadinejad had confidently stated that there was no reason the Guardian Council would disqualify him or Baqaei, and that he would be using his own, undeclared, methods to undo a disqualification. However, the reactions coming from media outlets affiliated with Baqaei and Ahmadinejad showed the disqualification had received royal assent in the Ahmadinejadite house. Ahmadinejad’s media advisor Ali-Akbar

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Javanfekr immediately issued a statement, in which he said the Guardian Council had relieved Ahmadinejad and Baqaei of the burden of duty. Soon after the news made the rounds, tens of people gathered in front of Ahmadinejad’s house in Narmak, east Tehran, to show their disapproval. Anti-riot police were reportedly deployed.

The news has sparked reactions on both sides of the political spectrum in Iran. Many Principlists hailed the Guardian Council’s move as an intelligent decision, while Reformists said they wished he was disqualified by popular vote.

Etemad newspaper’s Mahshid Sotoudeh argued in an article published here on Saturday that the Principlist camp’s systematic efforts to put their former ally behind in oblivion has been foiled by Ahmadinejad’s elaborate plan to attract supporters, not from the two mainstream camps, but from among a community fascinated by his norm-breaking behavior. The deadly blackout in Principlist media outlets, who continue to ravage the Rouhani administration while ignoring Ahmadinejad’s disqualification, indicated that the Principlists are celebrating the suicidal end of a nightmare, the article reasoned. Ahmadinejad’s silence in response is pregnant with yet another part of his plot, anticipated Sotudeh. An Etemad newspaper op-ed penned by influential Reformist Abbas Abdi also called for elucidation on the unanimous disqualifying vote, because it would otherwise fail to equip the society to an ‘insight’

they need in future political decision-makings. Recounting instances in which Ahmadinejad hesitated to comply with the Supreme Leader’s demands and the lawsuits currently underway with accusations against the former president of economic corruption, Abdi questioned the Guardian Council’s vote on the grounds that it lacked a clear political or judicial rationale and indicated negligence on the part of the parliament and the Judiciary, at the time of Ahmadinejad’s presidency.

According to Abdi, it is on the previous parliament to clarify why Ahmadinejad was not impeached and removed if he was found incompetent during his presidency. On the other hand, if his disqualification is based on accusations of economic corruption, the Judiciary should provide reasons why it has failed to put him on trial, Abdi argued.

Abdi did not take into consideration what many observers find as the likeliest reason Ahmadinejad has been disqualified for: his failure, again, to comply with the Supreme Leader’s recommendation that he had better not to run for office because his campaign could polarize the society. Even prior to Ahmadinejad’s disqualification, some Principlists had openly pressed the Guardian Council to bar him over his lack of belief in the fundamental principles of the Islamic Republic. Former MP Ahmad Tavakoli famously wrote a letter to the Council, saying Ahmadinejad had no

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adherence to velayat-e motlaqeh-ye faqih, Absolute Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, a Shia Islam theory put to practice in Iran’s Constitution, mandating compliance with the Supreme Leader.

Abdolkarim Pahlevani wrote in an article, published on Nafte Ma website, that Ahmadinejad’s measure sum up in his efforts to gradually turn into a ‘radical inner opposition’ of the establishment. “He wanted to present himself as an alternative to the establishment and acted recklessly in the same line, which was intolerable for the establishment of course,” he argued.

In reaction to the news, many rushed to their Twitter accounts on Thursday, protesting the notion that almost everyone with a presidential portfolio in the Islamic Republic has been disqualified after he left office. Others have found it an evidence that dissident leaders of the so-called Green Movement, formed in protests to the results of Ahmadinejad’s disputed reelection, were quicker than the Guardian Council to notice the ex-president’s lack of competence. The notion is, to many, further leverage for arguments in favor of an end to the house arrest of the dissident leaders, former presidential candidates Mirhossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi.