1 Report for

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Daily Report for Monday, September 18, 2017

1 Report for

Monday,

September 18, 2017 Shahrivar 27, 1396

* Highlights. Page 2

* News Briefs. Page 3

* Zarif’s upper hand over Tillerson. Page 3

* JCPOA without America. Page 4

* Bomb defused in Isfahan. Page 4

* Kurdish referendum will spark security crisis in Iraq. Page 5

* Korean news corner. Page 7

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2 Highlights

 University of Razi Professor Ghodrat Ahmadian argues in a short op-ed for Iranian Diplomacy that the Iraqi Kurdish referendum will spark security crisis in Iraq, but Masoud Barzani is ready to pay the costs. (See Page 5)

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3 Briefs

* Farsi-language newspaper Ghanoon quotes Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghassemi as saying that there will be fundamental changes at the Foreign Ministry. Deputy Ministers for regional affairs would be eliminated and their duties will be given to several director generals.

New departments will be formed.

* Farsi-language state-owned newspaper Iran writes that Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi condemned the US Treasury’s imposition of sanctions against a few Iranian nationals as a politically motivated, injudicious and groundless move.

* Farsi-language IRIB News Agency reports that Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani said that Iran only recognizes the united, integrated, and federal government of Iraq. He warned the Iraqi Kurdistan about the consequences of its upcoming independence referendum, saying the Iran will seriously revise its cooperation with Iraqi Kurds if Baghdad’s sovereignty is violated.

* Farsi-language Aftab News website writes that Tehran University Professor Sadeq Zibakalam says that the impact of eight years of Ahmadinejad are still felt today in Iran.

* Farsi-language Iranian Students’

News Agency (ISNA) report that President Rouhani’s chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi has rejected American claim that Iranian military centers can be inspected under JCPOA.

* Farsi-language state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that President Rouhani is scheduled to have a live interview with President Rouhani “tonight”.

Zarif’s upper hand over Tillerson

Farsi-language reformist newspaper Shargh refers to Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s visit to New York, and attempts to compare today’s situation with that of four years ago when President Rouhani started his first presidential term.

Shargh writes that four years ago, Zarif sat at the negotiating table with representatives of P5+1 countries at a time when “cruel and crippling sanctions” had been imposed on Iran through United Nations Security Council resolutions. There was international consensus against Iran. No country was ready to interact with Iran.

Those who were willing to interact with Iran demanded concessions. These were the results of the “Third Millennium Miracle State’s” [Ahmadinejad’s government] inappropriate policies and approaches This year, Zarif will meet his American counterpart at a time when International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano has issued several reports confirming that Iran has abided by its commitments within the nuclear deal. The world has affirmed Iran’s abiding by its commitments and thus supporting Iran. On the other hand, President Trump’s illogical and adventurous approaches have resulted in an isolated America.

It is very clear that President Trump and his military- security team are trying very hard to disrupt the aforesaid situation. Zarif and John Kerry held bilateral and private talks several times. There is no reason why Zarif and Tillerson cannot recreate this dialogue.

Assuredly, it would be against the interests of the country to observe domestic considerations in such a situation. There is no doubt that Zarif’s intelligence and his command and knowledge of JCPOA would positively impressive Tillerson, yielding positive results for both countries.

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4 JCPOA without America

Farsi-language hardline conservative Javan criticizes President Rouhani’s foreign policy. It writes that Iran and America have had no diplomatic relations for the past four decades. Javan recalls that negotiations EU countries had remained fruitless. Ultimately, it was decided that America, Russia and China should join the negotiations, so that the real hurdle of “America’s obstructionism”

should be resolved.

During the 2013 presidential election campaign, Rouhani had argued that the Europeans were deferring to American judgements regarding Iran. Thus, he put forward the idea of negotiations with America.

The logic was that since Iran’s main opponent is America, that America’s agreement is instrumental in moving forward, then Iran and America need to directly talk with each other. Iran’s Supreme Leader said it right then that America cannot be trusted. Nevertheless, Islamic Republic decided to move towards

“heroic flexibility”. Therefore, Iran and America held direct talks for the first time after more than three decades.

Javan writes that America continues with its “serial violations” of JCPOA. Javan stresses that both previous and current occupants of the White House have carried out these violations. Meanwhile, economic experts and businesspersons have publicly said that JCPOA has brought no tangible

economic benefits for Iran and Iranians.

Javan asks: What would happen if America suddenly decides to exit JCPOA?

What would happen to JCPOA? How effective would the nuclear deal without America?

Bomb defused in Isfahan

Farsi-language Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reports that a “suspicious”

car in which a bomb had had been planted was discovered last night at 22:30 in Isfahan city’s Najafabad locality. The police were able to successfully defuse the explosive.

The commander of 8th Armored Division of Najaf Ashraf Colonel Seifollah Rashidzadeh said that residents of the area noticed an abandoned car parked in their neighborhood and duly informed the police. The bomb squad was dispatched to the location at 23:30. The squad examined the explosive within the car. The squad was able to take the bomb out of the car and move it to outside of the city, where it was detonated.

Several Farsi-language news websites had earlier reported about a rumor among the residents that the bomb had been placed near the house of the late Mohsen Hojjaji’s father. Rashidzadeh rejected the rumor, saying that the bomb was nowhere near late Hojjaji’s father. Hojjaji was beheaded by IS in Syria in early August.

Rashidzadeh went on to say that the police is investigating the matter..

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5 Kurdish referendum will spark

security crisis in Iraq

Despite efforts by regional states and superpowers, as well as intense opposition from the central government of Iraq, Kurdish leaders and in particular Masoud Barzani have not withdrawn from calling for the independence referendum.

The referendum and the unilateral announcement of independence will probably cause disputes and even military conflicts between the Kurds and the Iraq central government over disputed regions.

An important issue that deepens crisis and tension in the area is the demography of these regions, wherein Kurds, Arabs, Turkmens, Shiites, Sunnis, and other ethnic groups live.

It should be noted that about a million Kurds reside in the Arab-dwelling regions of Iraq and a large number of Arabs live in the Kurdish regions.

Despite the many problems on the way of the Kurdish referendum and independence processes, I figure the Kurdish leader have made their decisions.

For the 71-year-old politician whose presidential term is officially overdue, the

realization of the Kurdish independence during his lifetime is so vitally significant that he has prepared himself to pay the costs of a serious security crisis.

IRDiplomacy news website. University of Razi Professor Ghodrat Ahmadian:

Despite efforts by regional states and superpowers, as well as intense opposition from the central government of Iraq, Kurdish leaders and in particular Masoud Barzani have not withdrawn from calling for the independence referendum. Two things have made the referendum a certainty. One is Barzani’s determination about and personalization of the Kurdish independence. The other factor is the likely restoration of sovereignty and authority of the central government in Baghdad after the collapse of ISIS. A key question however, is the domestic security aftereffects of the political process, i.e. referendum and the subsequent date that will be set to announce the independence. Here are some points to consider.

One. The referendum and the unilateral announcement of independence will probably cause disputes and even military conflicts between the Kurds and the Iraq central government over disputed regions. These include areas from the farthest west, Sinjar

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mountain, to the farthest east, i.e. Khanaqin. An important issue that deepens crisis and tension in the area is the demography of these regions, wherein Kurds, Arabs, Turkmens, Shiites, Sunnis, and other ethnic groups live. The identity amalgam could lead to ethnic cleansing.

Two. Oil reserves in Kirkuk is not an issue officials in Baghdad and Erbil could easily close their eyes to. Almost 30 percent of Iraq’s oil reserves are in Kirkuk and Khanaqin, with the country extracting 400,000 bpd when in control of the region.

Such huge amounts do not let a smooth independence process.

Three. It should be noted that about a million Kurds reside in the Arab-dwelling regions of Iraq and a large number of Arabs live in the Kurdish regions. More importantly, the Kurds residing in the Arab regions, including Baghdad, are among the richest. They are mainly residents of the upper middle class district of Karrada.

Are these Kurds, more than a million in population, ready to leave their opulent lives in the Arab Iraq? In case of independence, will they not face ethnic cleansing? I consider tension and ethnic cleansing between poor Arabs and rich Kurds of Baghdad predictable. This could naturally turn into a civil or even regional war.

Despite the many problems on the way of the Kurdish referendum and independence processes, I figure the Kurdish leader have made their decisions. Since the realization of their age-old wish for independence is in sight, leaders in Erbil are ready to pay its security costs. Their perception is that independence is tied to the life of Masoud Barzani, who wants this to be realized during his lifetime. For the 71-year-old politician whose presidential term is officially overdue, the realization of the Kurdish independence during his lifetime is so vitally significant that he has prepared himself to pay the costs of a serious security crisis.

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7 Korean news corner

 Farsi-language Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency (ICANA) writes that “Fire and Fury” are the key words of North Korea’s young leader Kim Jung-il [typing mistake by ICANA] and the capitalist American President Donald Trump. Politicians remember that North Korea, known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conducted its first nuclear bomb in October 2006. At the time, United States had reacted to the incident. Both countries used the same pretext of defending the interests and people of their country. Each tried to portray itself as the leading power of the missile and nuclear industry. United Nations Human Rights Council has accused North Korea to widespread violation of human rights. Nevertheless, North Korea forced Japan and South Korea’s seismic centers of recording big tremors [of the nuclear test]. America and South Korea called for severest punishments for North Korea. Now, “Fire and Fury” has become the key words of North Korea’s young leader Kim Jung-il and American President Donald Trump.

Even though United Nations Security Council and the EU have imposed sanctions on North Korea, that they put 103 persons and 57 organizations on a black list, nevertheless North Korea’s young leader ultimately wants to reach a balance of power with America. Violations of United Nations resolutions, military actions in East Asia especially in Korean Peninsula, dissatisfaction in the international community etc., are all the result of America’s efforts to create tension with North Korea. Perhaps it could be said that what the then NATO Secretary General said in 2016 that “the only thing he can do is condemn this test” was the only logical and correct he could have done at the time. It could be said that Pyongyang intends to play a role in regional equations by pursuing its missile and nuclear program instead of an offensive [conventional] weapon.

Meanwhile, America and its allies want to increase their influence in East Asia region by halting the progress of North Korea.

 Farsi-language Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reports that the US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Halley has said that the UN Security Council has run out of options to contain North Korea’s nuclear program, adding Washington may have to turn the matter over to the Pentagon. Speaking to CNN, she said that she was perfectly happy to hand the North Korea issue over to Defense Secretary James Mattis. [Also reported by Farsi-language newspaper Ghanoon.]

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 Farsi-language Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reports that following tensions over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and on the eve of the UN General Assembly, China and Russia today (Monday) launched a joint naval exercise near North Korea. Reuters news agency writes that Xinhua news agency said the joint exercises will take place between Peter the Great Bay, just outside of the Russian far eastern port of Vladivostok, not far from the Russia- North Korea border, and into the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk, to the north of Japan.

 Farsi-language Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in an editorial published in the New York Times on Sunday that the international community must remain united and enforce sanctions against North Korea after its repeated launch of ballistic missiles. Abe’s editorial comes as North Korea launched a missile over Japan on Friday, its second in the past three weeks.

 Farsi-language Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reports that a North Korean newspaper Minju Joson has called American President Donald Trump as an aggressive “war merchant” and accused the United States for “living on human blood”. The Express newspaper writes that Relations between Trump and his counterparts in South Korea and Japan have been strained over recent weeks, after he attacked the allies for failing to take a tough stance on North Korea. Of course, American president has not made any decision regarding a military action against Pyongyang, but all options on table.