1 Report for

(1)

Daily Report for Sunday, October 15, 2017

1 Report for

Sunday,

October 15, 2017 Mehr 23, 1396

* Highlights. Page 2

* News Briefs. Page 3

* Good cop, bad cop. Page 3

* Trump did not exit JCPOA. Page 4

* Iran and Pakistan discuss border security. Page 4

* Trump’s speech is not the end of the world for Iran. Page 5

* Korean news corner. Page 7

(2)

2 Highlights

 An Iranian analysts believes that the Europeans and the Americans are playing the good cop bad cop with Iran. As the Europeans will eventually support

America against Iran, he believes that the Europeans are playing the good cop in the current situation. (See Page 3)

 An Iranian analysts writes in a reformist newspaper that Donald Trump’s Friday night speech in which he decertified Iran’s compliance to the JCPOA followed one key objective: to increase pressure on Iran and trigger a new wave of Iranophobia in the Middle East. (See Page 5)

(3)

3 Briefs

* Farsi-language news website IranWire reports that the initial reactions on social media showed a diverse array of Iranians reacting angrily to President Trump’s speech.

It didn’t help that he did just about the surest thing to unite the largest possible number of Iranians against him: He used the A word. Trump referred to the “Arabian Gulf” even though the White House’s hand-out on the speech uses the official term Persian Gulf. Iranians, of virtually every creed, are fanatical about the name of this body of water and they were quick to take to social media to attack Trump on the issue.

* Farsi-language owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that Ghulamali Rajaei, a moderate conservative close to the late Hashemi Rafsanjani, believes that the hardline principalists have been trying to undermine President Rouhani and his government for the past four years.

They have intensified their attacks by calling JCPOA a betrayal of the Iranian nation and also attacking the individual members of Rouhani’s nuclear negotiating team.

* Farsi-language state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that analyst for Middle East and American affairs Dr. Ali Bigdeli says President Trump has been influenced by domestic and international lobbies, some in favor and some against JCPOA. He believes that Trump’s game with JCPOA is not in his interests.

* Farsi-language state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that Zoroastrian MP Esfandiar Ikhtiari has also reacted to President Trump’s remarks about JCPOA by saying: Trump should know that the Iranians from all race and religion stand united in defense of Iran and will defend it with their lives.

Good cop, bad cop

Farsi-language IranWire news website reports that Iranian political analyst Reza Taghizadeh says it is unclear whether American government would actually impose sanctions IRGC as a whole or just some of the IRGC-affiliated companies and individuals. He went on to say that President Trump himself did not announce whether America would be exiting JCPOA or not.

Likewise, he went on to say that by imposing indirect sanctions against IRGC, President Trump is also sidestepping putting IRGC directly on the terrorist list.

Taghizadeh believes that putting IRGC on terrorist list would create security problems for America. He says that IRGC would reciprocate being put on terrorist by putting America’s military on its own terrorist. This would mean that IRGC would feel free to attack American military personnel around the world, especially American personnel located in the Middle East and Iran’s other neighboring countries.

Furthermore, IRGC may also refuse to cooperate with America in security and intelligence related activities [against perhaps Al-Qaeda and IS in Afghanistan and Iraq]. Nevertheless, Taghizadeh believes that America may be ready to put IRGC on terrorist list.

He went on to say that the Europeans and the Americans are playing the good cop bad cop with Iran. As the Europeans will eventually support America against Iran, he believes that the Europeans are playing the good cop in the current situation. He said that if America imposes new sanctions against Iran, all of the big companies that have significant business with America would find it difficult or maybe impossible to do business with Iran.

He believes that Iran has two options in front of it. One option is that Islamic Republic of Iran would put its very existence on line for the sake of IRGC by going back to pre-JCPOA period. This would mean isolation for Iran and severe restrictions on Iran in the region and the

(4)

4

world. The second option is that Iran would pursue hidden and unofficial diplomacy. Iran may send “unnamed”

representatives to negotiate with the countries that may be willing to accept such envoys. Iran initiated nuclear negotiations through Oman and later Europe.

He believes that America wants to change Iran’s behavior through pressure. He argues that there are many in America and even inside Iran who believe that Iran moves towards compromise only when put under severe pressure.

Trump did not exit JCPOA

Farsi-language hardline conservative newspaper Kayhan refers to President Trump’s speech on Friday. It writes: We said it many times but no one listened to us. The nuclear deal is valuable and beneficial to all of the sides, especially for America and President Trump personally, except Iran. The Zionist Regime and President Trump know very well how valuable this agreement for them, this agreement which has been implemented unilaterally by the Iranian side.

We have been saying that President Trump would not exit JCPOA, but would keep on attacking it so that he would be able to add more clauses to the nuclear deal. Basically, when a country negotiates with countries such as the United States, UK and France, it is not difficult to predict the [negative]

outcome. The history of these countries is fundamentally entangled with betrayal and untrustworthiness.

But the betrayal of the [Iranian] patriotic liberals is not less than the treachery of Trump and his allies. One can never forgive the betrayals of the domestic Trumps. These individuals are busy with cooking up issues and will refrain from even leaking nuclear secrets. They use different words, but they are following President Trump’s footsteps. They stoke the specter of war to incite fear among Iranians, thus paving the groundwork for further concessions for Trump.

Iran and Pakistan discuss border security

Farsi-language state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reports that A delegation from Pakistan Balochistan Province and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Morteza Sarmadi discussed bilateral and regional issues, including border security.

The delegation, headed by Balochistan Assembly Speaker Rahila Hameed Khan Durrani, held talks with Sarmadi on Saturday. Border security, visa issuance, gas export, establishing Quetta-Zahedan flights, electricity export, boosting economic cooperation and resolving banking issues were among the main topics of the talks.

The delegation arrived in Shiraz, southern Iran on Tuesday (October 10) and held talks with local officials in Fars Province.

The members of the parliamentary delegation from Pakistan’s Balochistan also met with Iran’s Parliament speaker Ali Larijani, and President Hassan Rouhani’s deputy for women and family affairs.

(5)

5 Trump’s speech is not

the end of the world for Iran

Donald Trump’s Friday night speech in which he decertified Iran’s compliance to the JCPOA followed one key objective: to increase pressure on Iran and trigger a new wave of Iranophobia in the Middle East.

In the meantime, Iranian policymakers should be aware that Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal or decertification of Iran’s compliance is not the end of the world and Iran’s interaction with its neighbors should continue powerfully and within the framework of national interests.

With a realistic, yet innovative attitude, Iran can find the optimal chemistry that maximizes influence and minimizes Iranophobia, particularly at a time when Iraq and Syria are rooting out ISIS and moving towards stability, while Qatar and Turkey are wary about policies of Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Farsi-language reformist newspaper Shargh. By Sabbah Zanganeh, Middle East affairs analyst: Donald Trump’s Friday night speech in which he decertified Iran’s compliance to the JCPOA followed one key objective: to increase pressure on Iran and trigger a new wave of Iranophobia in the Middle East. When it comes to regional affairs, Iran should naturally fine-tune its relations with those states in the region with which it has closer ties. These policies should revolve around prevention of any new tension.

In the meantime, Iranian policymakers should be aware that Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal or decertification of Iran’s compliance is not the end of the world and Iran’s interaction with its neighbors should continue powerfully and within the framework of national interests. While JCPOA is an international agreement which enjoys support from the UN Security Council, it has the capacity to solve Iran’s problems partially, but not the entire array of its diverse problems. The world is also revolving around a unipolar, US-based order anymore and Iran can find many points of interest overlap with other countries, including even the US. Blowing Trump’s actions out of proportion underlines a lack of understanding of the new dynamics of international relations.

(6)

6

The US president is facing challenges inside his own country, with US’ neighbors, and with global powers. Unlike the age of Obama, Saudi Arabia and Israel may now assume more leeway to launch a psychological warfare against Iran, but they may not trigger a new round of serious confrontation. Riyadh is now under serious economic pressure and is trying to create a delay in Iran’s economic progress and development.

But that is the limit for Riyadh. Israel is also struggling with deep internal challenges and seeks every opportunity to escape isolation.

In this context, Trump’s attitude towards JCPOA can even backfire and pave the way for Iran’s stronger influence on regional affairs. With a realistic, yet innovative attitude, Iran can find the optimal chemistry that maximizes influence and minimizes Iranophobia, particularly at a time when Iraq and Syria are rooting out ISIS and moving towards stability, while Qatar and Turkey are wary about policies of Saudi Arabia and the United States. These developments have created a temporary alignment with Iran’s policies among these countries, which of course should be handled with care, since they may not last for long.

(7)

7 Korean news corner

 Farsi-language Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reports that Microsoft president and chief legal counsel Brad Smith says that the recent cyber-attacks named WannaCry can be traced to North Korean hackers. ISNA quotes MSPOWERUSER website, last year’s cyber-attack was conducted through WannaCry and it attacks

many countries, organizations and companies, inflicting irreplaceable damage.

The attack was one of the most deadly attacks in the recent years. The malware was able to force several British hospitals to stop working for several days.

Operations of many patients was delayed or postponed.

 Farsi-language Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reports that Pyongyang has threatened Australia with “catastrophe”. North Korea has also threatened America and South Korea to turn them into dust.

 Farsi-language Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reports that Malaysia wants to shut down its embassy in Pyongyang. In continuance of rising tensions between North Korea and the world, the Malaysian cabinet has said that Malaysian Embassy in Pyongyang will stop working. Many have interpreted this as saying that Malaysia will shut down its embassy in North Korea.