2020.4.15(수 )
현 지 정 보
뉴 욕 사 무 소캐나다 중앙은행 정책금리 동결 및 자산매입 확대
1. 주요 내용
□ 4.15일 캐나다 중앙은행(이하 ‘BOC‘)은 정책금리를 실효하한인 0.25%로 유지하고, 자산매입 대상 및 규모는 확대
o 코로나19 확산 이후 캐나다 경제활동 및 고용*이 급격하게 위축되는 가운데 국제유가도 크게 하락하는 등 캐나다 경제의 대내외 여건이 크게 악화
* 3월 취업자수가 101만명 감소하였으며, 4월초 실시된 실직자 대상 정부지원 프로그램 (Canada Emergency Response Benefit) 신청자수가 600만명을 상회
o BOC는 경제활동 지원 및 원활한 금융중개 기능 유지를 위해 금리 인하 및 자산매입(국채, 모기지채권, CP 등)을 시행해 왔는데, 추가적으로 주정부채* 및 회사채** 매입 프로그램을 신설하고 필요시 정부채 매입 규모***를 확대할 계획
* Provincial Bond Purchase Program(PBPP) : 주정부의 재원 조달 수요 증대에 대응하여 만기 10년 이하의 주정부 채권 매입(한도 500억C$)
** Corporate Bond Purchase Program(CBPP) : 회사채 시장의 유동성 공급 및 원활한 자 금조달 기능 지원을 위해 5년 이하의 투자등급 채권 매입(한도 100억C$)
*** 주당 최소 50억 C$의 정부채 매입을 지속할 것이며 정부채 시장의 적절한 기능 유지를 위해 필요시 매입규모를 확대
- 아울러, 단기 재정증권(만기 1년 이하) 발행시장 인수 규모를 확대(25% → 40%)하고, 기간물 RP(현행 1, 3, 6, 12개월물)에 24개월물도 추가
o BOC는 필요할 경우 각 프로그램의 규모나 시기는 언제든지 조정할 준비(stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary)가 되어 있다고 언급
BOC 정책금리
□ 한편, BOC는 동일 발표한 통화정책보고서(매분기 발표)에서 세계 및 캐나다 경기 회복 시점은 코로나19 상황 전개에 달려있어 전망의 불확실성이 매우 높은 상 황임을 강조*
* 통상적으로 향후 2년간의 연간 성장률 및 CPI 전망치를 제시해왔으나 금번 보고서에서는 시나리오별 분석 및 단기(2020.1분기 및 2분기) 전망으로 대체
o 캐나다의 2020년 1분기와 2분기 성장률이 2019년 4분기 대비 각각 1～3% 및 15~30% 하락할 것으로 전망되며, 소비자물가 상승률은 유가 하락 등의 영향 으로 2분기중 0%에 근접할 것으로 예상
2. 시장 반응 및 평가
□ BOC 통화정책회의 발표, 국제유가 하락 영향, 미국 경제지표 부진 등으로 캐나다국채 금리(10년물)는 하락(-9bp)하고 캐나다달러화도 약세(-1.6%)
캐나다·미국 국채(10년물) 금리 및 CAD 환율1)
주 : 1) 뉴욕시간 16:00 기준
□ 금융시장 참가자들은 BOC의 주정부채․회사채 매입 결정 등에 주목하면서 금융시장 안정을 위해 신속하고 적극적으로 대응하고 있다고 평가
o BOC가 주정부채 및 회사채 매입에 나설 가능성이 높은 것으로 전망해 왔으나, 발표 시기는 예상보다 이르다는 평가가 중론
o 주정부채 및 회사채 발행잔액(각각 9,000억 C$, 4,620억 C$, FTSE 기준)을 감안할 때 BOC의 매입규모가 시장에 미치는 영향은 제한적일 수 있으나 향후 조정 여지를 남겨 두었음
□ 한편, Poloz 총재는 기자회견에서 마이너스 금리 및 수익률곡선 조절 정책(Yield Curve Control) 도입 계획은 없다고 언급
2020.4.15일 Bank of Canada 통화정책회의 정책결정문
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at ¼ percent, which the Bank considers its effective lower bound. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank also announced new measures to provide additional support to Canada’s financial system.
The necessary efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic have caused a sudden and deep contraction in economic activity and employment worldwide. In financial markets, this has driven a flight to safety and a sharp repricing of a wide range of assets. It has also pushed down prices for commodities, especially oil. In this environment, the Canadian dollar has depreciated since January, although by less than many other currencies. The sudden halt in global activity will be followed by regional recoveries at different times, depending on the duration and severity of the outbreak in each region. This means that the global economic recovery, when it comes, could be protracted and uneven.
The Canadian economy was in a solid position ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, but has since been hit by widespread shutdowns and lower oil prices. One early measure of the extent of the damage was an unprecedented drop in employment in March, with more than one million jobs lost across Canada. Many more workers reported shorter hours, and by early April some six million Canadians had applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit.
The outlook is too uncertain at this point to provide a complete forecast. However, Bank analysis of alternative scenarios suggests the level of real activity was down 1-3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, and will be 15-30 percent lower in the second quarter than in fourth-quarter 2019. CPI inflation is expected to be close to 0 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This is primarily due to the transitory effects of lower gasoline prices.
The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive policy action to support individuals and businesses and to lay the foundation for economic recovery once containment measures start to ease. Fiscal programs, designed to expand according to the magnitude of the shock, will help individuals and businesses weather this shutdown phase of the pandemic, and support incomes and confidence leading into the recovery. These programs have been complemented by actions taken by other federal agencies and provincial governments.
For its part, the Bank of Canada has taken measures to improve market function so that monetary policy actions have their intended effect on the economy. This helps ensure that households and businesses continue to have access to the credit they need to bridge this difficult time, and that lower interest rates find their way to ultimate borrowers. The Bank has lowered its target for the overnight rate 150 basis points over the last three weeks, to its effective lower bound. It has also conducted lending operations to financial institutions and asset purchases in core funding markets amounting to around $200 billion.
These actions have served to ease market dysfunction and help keep credit channels open, although they remain strained. The next challenge for markets will be managing increased demand for near-term financing by federal and provincial governments, and businesses and households. The situation calls for special actions by the central bank. To this end, the Bank is furthering its efforts with several important steps.
Under its previously-announced program, the Bank will continue to purchase at least
$5 billion in Government of Canada securities per week in the secondary market, and will increase the level of purchases as required to maintain proper functioning of the government bond market. Also, the Bank is temporarily increasing the amount of Treasury Bills it acquires at auctions to up to 40 percent, effective immediately.
The Bank is also announcing today the development of a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program of up to $50 billion, to supplement its Provincial Money Market Purchase Program. Further, the Bank is announcing a new Corporate Bond Purchase Program, in which the Bank will acquire up to a total of $10 billion in investment grade corporate bonds in the secondary market. Both of these programs will be put in place in the coming weeks. Finally, the Bank is further enhancing its term repo facility to permit funding for up to 24 months.
These measures will work in combination to ease pressure on Canadian borrowers.
As containment restrictions are eased and economic activity resumes, fiscal and monetary policy actions will help underpin confidence and stimulate spending by consumers and businesses to restore growth. The Bank’s Governing Council stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary. All the Bank’s actions are aimed at helping to bridge the current period of containment and create the conditions for a sustainable recovery and achievement of the inflation target over time.
