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■Background & Objectives
Since the 「Kyoto Protocol」became effective in February, 2005 various alternatives have been introduced to reduce travel demands and envi-ronmental problems. Although it is not very pop-ular now, numbers of firms and workers imple-ment telecommuting which can reduce commut-ing trips. Purpose of the study is to analyze fac-tors that influence on telecommuting, and to sug-gest basic strategies for supporting facilitation of telecommuting.
■Summary
This study defines telecommuting as ‘without commuting to firm, working at home using infor-mation and communication technology(home-based telecommuting)’ and also ‘working at tele-work centers near home (center-based telecom-muting)’. Previous studies usually focused on effects on travel demands. Analysis of telecom-muting related to land use, urban spacial struc-ture, and environment are, however, not enough.
In the Unites States, concerns about telecom-muting started in the 1970s. Telecomtelecom-muting has been adopted usually in public organizations and large IT firms, although it has not been spread
out fast. It is more popular in the European coun-tries. Although it is popular than us, telecommut-ing is less active in Japan as in the United States and Europe due to their company-oriented tradi-tion. In Korea, several public organizations and large IT companies started telecommuting in the 1990s. Most of them, however, stopped the sys-tem because of lack of employers’ interests and related regulations.
Surveys on actual telecommuters at the Korean Intellectual Property Office and of employers of venture businesses. Although the workers worry about possibility of discrimination from their firms and colleagues, and about limitation for work concentration at home, they usually prefer it because of flexibility of work scheduling, reduction of cost and stress from commuting, etc.
In case of the employers, their preference of implementing it is not high as the workers because of initial cost, security, and supervision issues. Desire of future expansion is much higher among the people who already experience telecommuting. For telework center, actual telecommuters recognize its necessity and show higher possibility of using because they experi-ence limits of working at home.
Since basic information is not enough to
sug->> Alternatives of Telecommuting Facilitation for Metropolitan Transportation Improvement
대도시권 교통개선을 위한 재택근무 활성화방안 연구Jin-Kyu Chung & Hyun-Sik Kim
91KRIHS Infrastructure & Construction Economics
gest supporting tools of telecommuting facilita-tion this study focuses on the analysis of factors that influence on telecommuting implementation.
Using those factors found, basic strategies are suggested, such as expansion of model projects, providing incentives, and establishment of tele-work centers. Future studies that focus on
devel-oping the basic strategies might be needed. In addition, the model projects should be followed by monitoring and advertizing.
Research Period: 2005. 3. 1 ~ 2005. 8. 31
Report Descriptions: KRIHS Research Report 2005-9, 90pp
Ⅱ2005 Research Projects by Area
■Background & Objectives
Nowadays the national economy is reflating steadily after IMF crisis. however the construction economy is recovering very slow and unstable.
Under this circumstance, huge development pro-jects such as Multi-functional Administrative City, enterprise-city, innovation-city are under driving. If these projects were driven under poor understandings of business cycles and policy effects, then those may cause overheating con-struction economy like the 2 Million house
pro-ject in the past. In this research, we examine the construction economy cycle and analyze the effects of 2 Million house project as a measure.
Also, we forecast economic fluctuation under those huge projects ,which described above, and propose cyclical countermeasures as well.
■Summary
We composited Construction Business Cycle Index with construction contract, construction employment, construction mid-product
ship->> The Construction Business Cycle, Construction Industry and National Economy
건설경기의 구조적 진단과 대응방안 연구Jae-Young Kim, Hong-Ki Ahn, Hyeock-Jin Kwon & Min-Chul Kim
Trough Peak
Cycle 1 Feb. 81 Jan. 84
Cycle 2 Apr. 86 Jan. 90
Cycle 3 Nov. 92 Jan. 98
Cycle 4 Jul. 99 Sep. 2003
<Construction Business Cycle>
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ment, and construction permit. The composite index was made by NBER method and Markov-switching factor method. The first is non-opti-mizing approach which is convenient but likely to be arbitrary, the latter is optimizing approach.
which is free from subjective arbitrage, but com-plex.
Peak points are 84.Jan, 90.Jan, 98.Jan, and 2003.Sept. Trough points are 81.Feb, 86.April, 92.Nov, and 99.Jul. Construction Business Cycle is long swing and high amplitude, and asymmet-ric. This characteristics are resulted from policy shock.
The construction economy cycle had been co-moved with the national economy cycle till mid of 80's. But the construction economy cycle has been separating from the national economy cycle after 80's. It originated in the measures in the past such as 2 Million house project.
At that time, 2 Million house project was about to drive, the construction economy was already boomed. So that construction economy was over-heated. Even though, prices was stable, eventual-ly the materials and wage were inflated. After 2 Million house project completed, new-comer of construction industry requested the stimulative step spontaneously, the construction counter-cyclical measures became asymmetric measures.
That is nothing but one directional based one which reflationary step, so that national economy can not support the construction economy any more. The only affirmation of the construction industry is that its supplying ability has grown somehow.
■Major Results & Evaluations
At present, the construction economy cycle is showing stable growing status. Its trend will be continuous for a while, managing to pass the bottom point at 2007 successfully. The peak point will be 2010, when those huge SOC project are halfway through the progress. In accordance with this forecasting, we need to prepare counter mea-sures which can cool down the rapid overheating cycle. Those measures can be, establishing the monitoring system of the construction business cycle, evaluation systems for economic effect of the huge SOC project, especially long-term plan of materials and man-power supplies.
Also we need to bring better approach for not only the execution times but the regional dispro-portion. Multi-functional Administrative City, enterprise-city, innovation-city are not based on metropolitan area in a different way with 2 Mil-lion house project. The major supplying ability of construction industry is still based on metropoli-tan. Therefore, we need to cultivate the mobility of materials and manpower supplies and eco-nomical exchanges between different regions.
Research Period: 2005. 1. 1 ~ 2005. 12. 31
Report Descriptions: KRIHS Research Report 2005-35, 162pp
Ⅱ2005 Research Projects by Area93KRIHS Infrastructure & Construction Economics
Recently the frequency and scale of disasters have been seriously increasing. It is reported that the total national damages by the natural disas-ters during the last 10 years reaches 2300 fatali-ties and 13 billion dollars for the property recov-ery costs. Especially the disasters, both natural and man-made, can directly strike the transport infrastructures such as major highway and rail-road networks so that national transportation system can be paralyzed partially and temporari-ly. Of course, we can’t prevent disasters, but we can ensure that related organization and business are better prepared when disaster strikes.
The research presents a systematic approach for preparing emergency and evacuation man-agement system for highway networks in order to minimize the national socioeconomic damages by the natural disaster such as Typhoon and storm.
For this, it investigated the database of the dam-ages of the national road networks by the disas-ters and developed a methodology for defining both direct and indirect impact area considering the severity and the uncertainty of the disaster.
Two optimization model for searching evacuation routes also developed under exit time constraints.
The first model presents a minimum path algo-rithm which minimize the total amount of
accu-mulated evacuation time of people in the impact-ed area basimpact-ed on the condition that there is no time limit. The model adopts integrated traffic distribution and assignment model with the user equilibrium principle. The second model also pre-sents a minimum path algorithm which maximize the total amount of rescued people under the condition that there is definite time limit.
Throughput Maximization Problem and Non-linear Program Approach has been applied to the second model. The final part of the research is to develop a quantitative method for analyzing recovery priorities of damaged road networks.
Before and after link performance function of each damaged road networks has been compared to evaluate and rank the socioeconomic effective-ness of road recovery. Each module has been integrated as a computer software, so called (ROADEMS; ROAD Emergency Management Sys-tem), which has graphical user friendly interface and analyzing tools for defining impact area and evacuation routes under various disaster scenar-ios. This prototype software for roadway disaster management provides critical information for making timely decision from preparation step to recovery step including available evacuation routes, evacuation size considering the shelter
>> Development of Emergency & Evacuation Management System for National Road Networks
국가기간교통망의 유고(有故) 대응전략 연구: 도로 재난관리시스템을 중심으로 Sang-Keon Lee, Ho-Jeung Kim, Sung-Ho Oh & Sun-Young Chung
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accomodations, and roadway recovery priority.
It is well known fact that if there were more proper evacuation decision making when Katrina had struck New Orleans city last October, there might have had much less damages. The research emphasizes the importance of the timing of deci-sion making and its effectiveness under disaster circumstances. In that sense, it is highly expected
that the research provides great motivation for developing a comprehensive decision supporting system for national highway networks disaster management.
Research Period: 2005. 1. 1 ~ 2005. 12. 31
Report Descriptions: KRIHS Research Report 2005-32, 139pp
■Background & Objectives
Since the efficient policies for public projects in 1999, the importance of the efficiency of public construction projects such as the reduction of construction costs has been much recognized, the reform of the budget system to make the govern-ment finance efficient has been executed. In addition, confronting the situation in which the nationally important and imminent projects have been delayed or interrupted by the conflicts among interests such as environmental issues during the implementation process of public con-struction projects, the efficient implementation strategies were groped in the aspects of the process and the contents of public construction projects.
■Summary
Specific contents of each chapter are summarized as follows. Chapter 2 described the concept of the efficient implementation of large public construc-tion projects and the inefficiency of the public investment as a starting point of the discussion.
First of all, the scope of large public construction project was designated after grasping the concept of large public construction project. With this, the scope by project steps was designated, and the meaning of ‘efficiency’ which was a key word of this study was discussed in a more concrete man-ner by grasping the meaning of ‘implementation’.
In addition, the relationship between the charac-teristics of public goods like large public con-struction projects and the factors of inefficiency
>> The Efficient Implementation Strategies for Large Public Construction Projects
대형 공공건설사업의 효율적 추진방안 연구Sung-Il Kim, Jae-Yoon Yoo, Min-Chul Kim & Seung-Hun Lee
95KRIHS Infrastructure & Construction Economics
was explained. Finally, the meaning of efficient implementation in large public construction pro-jects was comprehensively defined.
Chapter 3 analyzed the situation and the prob-lems of large public construction project in Korea in four aspects; 1) rationality of master plan and project determination 2) participation and con-flicts of interests 3) interaction between regula-tion and project subjects 4) public finance, bud-get, and project management.
Chapter 4 derived the principal factors to affect large public construction project reflecting the results of the precedent research, the situations and the problems discussed in chapter 3, and interviews with related personnels. From this, final model was established through SEM to find out the affection structure. The results of the analysis showed that ‘transparency’ and ‘rational-ity of the project plan’ as parameters were influ-ential to the efficient implementation. In addition, appropriateness of plan, opinion collection and participation, finance and budget, interests and conflicts as independent variables were appeared to affect efficient implementation through those two parameters.
Chapter 5 explored the implementation system and operational situations of large public con-struction project in U.S., B.K., and Japan, and derived implications. Implications were derived from the analyses of the project implementation systems and operations of foreign countries which were 1) implementation system of large public construction project 2) conflicts manage-ment in the implemanage-mentation process of large pub-lic construction project 3) situations of systems
and operations in the project evaluation stage after implementation.
Efficient implementation strategies for large public construction project were suggested based on the above analyses in chapter 6. Those were 1) rationalization of large public construction pro-ject plan and improvement of propro-ject determina-tion system 2) participadetermina-tion in the project imple-mentation process and establishment of conflicts management mechanism 3) preparation of stable budget and change of budget expenditure meth-ods 4) improvement of project management abili-ty and application of efficient project manage-ment system 5) preparation of integrated project implication procedures and guidelines for effi-cient large public construction project 6) estab-lishing post-implementation evaluation system and strengthening monitoring system.
■Major Results & Evaluations
The study focused on how to make project imple-mentation including project plan and implemen-tation process efficient and suggested the strate-gies for efficient implementation of large public construction project. Because the scope of the study was too wide, there was a limitation to sug-gest the situation, problems, and improvement methods about project implementation process in details. In this study, large public construction project was limited on the infrastructure supply project and empirically analyzed to select the fac-tors to affect the efficiency of large public con-struction project implementation among the fac-tors dominant in the project implementation process, and implementation strategies centering
Ⅱ2005 Research Projects by Area
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on important institutional and policy considera-tions were suggested after considering the current system operation and policy directions.
The meaning of this study may be found in a sense which the problems which should be solved for the efficient implementation of large public construction project were exposed in a more sys-tematic way and the general guidelines to improve were suggest.
In addition, virtues of the study may also be
found in which the rationality of the contents and procedures in the scheme and the plan of the project was related and grasped beyond the smooth implementation. Based on the result of this study, further suggestions and detailed dis-cussions are anticipated to bring in.
Research Period: 2005. 1. 1 ~ 2005. 12. 31
Report Descriptions: KRIHS Research Report 2005-36, 234pp
Main goal of the research is to provide the guide line which will be able to judge a confidence level reflecting uncertainty of the input data on transportation demand forecast. The 1st chapter introduces the background, goals, range and methods of this research and more.
In instruction we presented background, goal, range and method of this research at the 1st chapter. In research background, we describe the limit of traffic demand estimate volume, which not only reckons economical benefit, but also the key factor in deciding civil business profitability.
we cross analysed traffic demand estimate of before and after road construction. In 2005, if you compare currently operating 4 civil
high-way’s present traffic to estimated traffic, present traffic only shows 22-66% of estimated traffic, and for highway intervals, which is in public use, scanty estimation has occurred in Metropolitan area, and exaggerated estimation has occurred in most of other areas. And demand estimation for rapid transit railway was only Kyoubu-line 52.4%, Honam-line 32.1%.
We studied methods to estimate traffic demand and demand estimation using observation traffic.
We looked into each key methodologies of traffic origination, traffic allocation, measure selection, traffic assignment phase, 4 main phases of demand estimation course. Presented methodolo-gy for the past trend extension method and
>> Enhancement of Reliability for Traffic Demand Estimation: Focusing on Interval Estimation Model for Traffic Demand
통행수요 추정의 신뢰수준 제고 방안 연구: 구간 통행수요 모형 개발을 중심으로 Il-Ho Chung & Sung-Ho Oh
97KRIHS Infrastructure & Construction Economics
regression analysis which can be separated a increase and decrease rate method and a basic unit method by traffic origination model. Regres-sion analysis is conducted throughly in chapter 4, therefore it’s not fully conducted in chapter 3.
Traffic range, a phase which provide link between each zone of traffic origination and amount of influx reckoned during traffic origination, pre-sented growth-factor models, Gravity model, Entropy model, Intervening opportunity model and other methodologies. Transportation means selection, a phase which distributes O/D table val-ues from traffic origination and traffic range to each means, presented Probit model and Logit model, which are individual selection models.
Traffic distribution is used to predict interval traf-fic and intersection rotation traftraf-fic and calculate traffic fees between terminals.
Chapter 4 concretely describe currently most widely used demand estimation method, i.e. by predicting interval traffic origination volume dur-ing traffic origination phase, which is the 1st phase of the four phase model, and predicting interval traffic during traffic allocation phase, which is the last phase, and presented result data of case analy-sis in Dae-jun. Interval estimation method through regression analysis convert regression analysis model’s point estimation method, which is one of interval estimation method, to interval estimation method and reckon traffic origination volume. To estimate using interval estimation method, reliabil-ity level was set to 95% and reckoned origination volume by maximum value, middle value, mini-mum value. 4 phase traffic demand analysis proce-dure was equally applied and finally interval traffic
was reckoned.
Chapter 5 concretely describes the model which inferences interval traffic fee by O/D revision phase through observation traffic. Considering observation traffic changes by year/month/week/
time, during O/D data establishment phase using observation traffic analysed changes of observa-tion traffic and reflected changes of traffic.
Chapter 6 describes result of interval estimation model and this research’s affect on transportation demand estimation. In this research, we have found during demand analysis through trans-portation demand estimation using regression analysis, uncertainty of input data’s affect, by cross analysing result of reliability section we have assessed effect of demand estimation’s vari-ability. Also by presenting way to assess resilience of link traffic depending on demand analysis’s variability, we have presented method to apply analysis method’s variability and resilience during transportation demand analysis.
O/D data establishment method using observation traffic uses low budget observation traffic and has the merit of establishing effective O/D data.
In this regard, this research analysed traffic changes depending on road condition and assort-ed Jejudo’s road in groups and studiassort-ed way to establish O/D data by applying different traffic changes to each. Studied whether O/D data reflected variability of traffic using maximum value, middle value, minimum value of O/D data which was gathered from above research.
Research Period: 2005. 1. 1 ~ 2005. 12. 31
Report Descriptions: KRIHS Research Report 2005-33, 140pp
Ⅱ2005 Research Projects by Area