SUMMARY ․ 81
SUMMARY
A Study on the Estimation of Long-term Housing Demand and Policy Implications Considering Demographic Change
Park Chungyu, Lee Jaechoon, Cho Junghee, Lee Giljae
Key words: Housing Demand, Demographic Change, Population Structure, Housing Policy
The government is putting forth various efforts, such as operating
“Demographic policy task force team” in response to the changes in population and household structure. It is necessary to analyze mid/long-term housing demand and to seek policy direction with regards to such in order to respond appropriately and applicably to the quickly evolving population and household dynamics.
The purpose of this study is to estimate mid/long-term housing demand by reflecting the details of the Statistics Office’s “Special estimation of future population and future household”, and to identify future policy direction. In particular, it aims to deduct related implications through segmentalized estimations per region, per number of household members, and per age group and to propose future policy direction.
A figure smaller than the demand of the existing comprehensive housing plan has been identified for the new housing demand, which has recently been estimated, This seems to be the effect of a drop in demand and other factors,
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which are primary factor of income following the advancement into the low-growth era. However, as the new housing demand of this study is close to the housing consumption aspect (actual demand) and as it does not include public housing needs, investment demand, household preference and others, a prudent interpretation is required with regards to such.
As a result of analyzing the level of contribution per age group of housing demand, households of above age 60 showed extremely large contributions, so an increase in housing demand centered on the aging population is expected.
Looking at the level of contribution per number of household members, the level of contribution of 1~2 person households is high, so an increase in housing demand centered on 1~2 person households is expected in the future.
The housing demand of aging population is expected to be higher in non-metropolitan regions instead of metropolitan regions, and the housing demand centered on 1~2 person households is also expected to be higher in non-metropolitan regions than the metropolitan regions. As a result of analyzing the direction of the housing supply distribution per number of household members by setting a certain hypothesis, 64.8~66.1% housing supply for 1~2 person households is judged to be necessary.
In the future, it is necessary to expand small and medium types of housing supply following the increase in small-sized households, and it is necessary to prepare a institutional foundation regarding shared housing. There is a need to seek measures for diversifying housing support depending on the age group of elderly people and the extent of health status for housing stability of aged households.
