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The Socio-Economic Impact Analysis on the Construction of New Capital in Korea
신행정수도 건설의 사회․경제적 파급영향 분석연구(RR 2003-20) Sang-Woo Park, Sang-Wook Kim, and Hyoung-Seo Park
December 2003․202 pages․Korean
The Korean government intends to build a new administrative capital in order to alleviate over-population concentrated in capital area including Seoul, and is now making the master plan of the new capital. It is said that the administrative capital will be located in Chungbuk province or Chungnam province in the middle of Korea and nothing else has decided up to date. Therefore, various opinions concerned with the construction of new administrative capital have been suggested, and many studies on the new capital are carrying out for supporting decision-making of the location of the new capital, the size of the city, the size of investment, etc. This study is one of them.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts caused by moving of administrative function on Capital region, Choongcheong regions and other regions. The study focuses on making quantitative analysis of impacts from a social and economic point of view: the change of population, regional economy and environment, and the impact on balanced development policy, etc. The study expects to give a guideline or data for reference to the decision-makers and the planners concerning with new administrative capital.
This study consists of 5 major parts.
In the first part, the study has scrutinized the plenty of conception and ideas for new administrative capital, the controversy and disputation about new capital, and the cases of foreign countries.
In the second part, the study has made three types of plot to build the new administrative capital according as how many governmental organizations move to the new capital. And then, the study has calculated the construction costs of new capital in accordance with each alternative. The first alternative is to move the central
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administrative agencies except some of them located in Daejeon Government Complex in Choongcheong regions. In this case, the population to be planned for the new administrative capital has been estimated at five hundred thousand, and the cost of construction has been estimated at thirty-one trillion won. The second alternative is to move the Office of the President, central administrative agencies, the National Assembly, and offices of diplomatic missions in Korea. The planned population has been estimated at seven hundred thousand, and the construction costs has been done at forty-two trillion won. The third alternative is to move one of the second alternative plus the Supreme Court and some public institutions: the Office of the President, Central Administrative Agencies, the National Assembly, offices of diplomatic missions in Korea, the Supreme Court, and some public institutions. The planned population and the construction costs have been estimated at one million and fifty-seven trillion won respectively.
In the third part, the study has estimated the movement of population due to building the new administrative capital by each alternative: the movement of officers and their families, immigrants caused by new jobs in the new administrative capital. In case of the first alternative, it has been analyzed that the immigrant of 344,000 would come from existing capital region, and 125,000 persons and 22,000 persons would immigrate from Choongcheong regions and from other regions to the new capital respectively. In the second alternative, the immigrants from existing capital region would be 479,000 persons and would be 176,000 persons from Choongcheong regions and 37,000 persons from other regions. In the third alternative, the immigrant would be 686,000 persons from existing capital region, 258,000 persons from Choongcheong regions, and 43,000 persons from other regions
In the fourth part, the study has analyzed impact on regional economy caused by building of new administrative capital. The analysis has been made by applying the multi-regional input-output model on 26 industries in 7 metropolitan cities and 9 provinces. The effect has been analyzed according to the construction cost of new capital, household expenses and paying by institutions to be located in the new capital.
In the case of the first alternative, increment of product due to the construction of new capital would reach totally 84 trillion won. Increment of product by moving the
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governmental offices has been estimated at 27.7 billion won. Income of 20 trillion would increase by construction of new capital, and also 6.7 billion won would increase by moving governmental offices. 5.5 billion won would increase in accordance with paying by institutions. In job creation, 1.46 billion persons would have new job in construction of new capital, 4.8 thousand persons by moving governmental offices, and one thousand persons by expenditure of institutions. 85% of such increment by construction would arise in Choongcheong regions surrounding the new capital.
In the second alternative and the third alternative, 113 trillion won and 154 trillion won would increase in the production respectively by construction of new capital. 80%
of the increment would occur in Choongcheong regions.
And the impact by new capital would largely arise in the construction industry, manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, manufacture of basic metals, manufacture of pulp, paper and paper Products, manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products in order.
In the fifth part, the study has analyzed environmental impact, impact on the decentralization and the balanced development, etc. The multi-regional input-output model has been applied in the analysis of environmental impact also. In existing capital region, every pollutant such as dust, SO₂, CO, NO₂would decrease. It has analyzed that NO₂would decrease in large. In Choongcheong regions, every pollutant, especially dust and SO₂, would increase. In the quality of water, the first and the second alternative would make the current quality in existing capital region, namely third class, keep going as it is. The third alternative would let it improve into the second class. But, the three alternatives would make the quality of water in Choongcheong region become worse. And, the degree of concentration into the existing capital region in population would decrease from 47.2% into 46.6%∼45.9%, and the weight of Choongcheong region would change from 10% into 10.6%∼11.4%.
This study has accomplished in plenty of assumption based on the possibility.
Everything in the study can be changeable. But, this study has attempt the quantitative analysis of impacts, so the study can apply into practice when the sketch of new administrative capital has made in near future. This study expects to make like that and to be base of the plan for new Korean administrative capital.
