Paris, 12 March 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Composite leading indicator for the OECD continues to signal a positive change in momentum
Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue pointing to a positive change in momentum in the OECD as a whole.
The United States and Japan continue to drive the overall position but stronger, albeit tentative, signals are beginning to emerge within all other major OECD economies and the Euro area as a whole.
The CLIs for India and Russia are also showing stronger signs of a positive change in growth momentum.
However the CLIs for China and Brazil continue to point to below-trend growth.
The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) show weak growth momentum of most ASEAN economies, with some signs of improvements (Read more).
Positive change in momentum in the OECD area Slowdown in China
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Regained momentum in the United States Possible change in momentum in the Euro area
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Methodological Notes:
The CLI methodological notes are available at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/22/47/44728410.pdf Access data:
CLI data are available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI The OECD Development Centre’s ABCIs are available at: www.oecd.org/dev/asiapacific/abcis
Contacts:
For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail [email protected].
For technical questions contact [email protected]
Next release: 10 April 2012
Paris, 12 March 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Regained momentum in Japan Possible change in momentum in France
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Possible change in momentum in Germany Possible change in momentum in Italy
80 85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Possible change in momentum in the United Kingdom Below-trend growth in Brazil
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Possible change in momentum in Canada Positive change in momentum in India
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Positive change in momentum in Russia
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators
(CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in
economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately
six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term
trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed
turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional
turning-points that may be reversed.
Paris, 12 March 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**
Ratio to trend, amplitude
adjusted Month on Month growth rate Year on Year growth
rate
Growth cycle outlook
(long term average =100) (%) (%)
2011 2012 2011 2012 Latest
month
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
OECD Area
100.1 100.0 100.2 100.5 100.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 -1.6 positive change in momentumEuro Area
99.2 98.7 98.5 98.5 98.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -5.3 possible change in momentumMajor Five Asia*
99.3 99.2 99.2 99.1 99.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.5 slowdownMajor Seven
100.1 100.1 100.3 100.7 101.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 -1.4 positive change in momentumCanada
99.6 99.4 99.3 99.3 99.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.7 possible change in momentumFrance
99.2 98.8 98.7 98.8 99.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -4.7 possible change in momentumJapan
101.2 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.6 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 regained momentumGermany
99.4 98.6 98.1 98.0 98.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -7.3 possible change in momentumItaly
96.9 96.3 96.0 96.1 96.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.4 -7.1 possible change in momentumUnited Kingdom
99.4 99.0 98.7 98.7 98.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -3.7 possible change in momentumUnited States
100.4 100.6 101.1 101.8 102.5 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 regained momentumBrazil
95.5 94.6 93.8 93.4 93.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -9.8 below-trend growthChina
100.2 99.9 99.5 99.0 98.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -3.4 slowdownIndia
94.9 94.9 95.4 96.0 96.7 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 -4.2 positive change in momentumRussia
101.8 101.7 101.8 101.9 102.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -1.6 positive change in momentum* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.
** CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
