Composite leading indicators point to growth picking up in most major economies

Paris, 10 April 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release

Composite leading indicators point to growth picking up in most major economies

Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend, point to growth picking up in most major economies.

In the United States and Japan, the CLIs continue to point to economic growth firming. The CLI for China provides a more positive outlook compared with last month’s assessment, with the CLI now pointing towards growth picking up.

In the Euro Area as a whole, and in particular in Germany, the CLIs continue to indicate a pick-up in growth.

The CLIs point to no further decline in growth in France and to a positive change in momentum in Italy.

The CLIs for the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil and Russia point to growth close to trend rates while the CLI for India indicates weakening growth.

Growth firming in the OECD area Growth picking up in China

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Growth firming in the United States Growth picking up in the Euro area

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

Methodological Notes:

The CLI methodological notes are available at: www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/44728410.pdf Watch our video explaining the CLIs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UY8iPW0GVAo Access data: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI

Contacts:

For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail [email protected].

For technical questions contact [email protected]

Next release: 14 May 2013

Paris, 10 April 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Growth firming in Japan No further decline in growth in France

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Growth picking up in Germany Positive change in momentum in Italy

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Growth around trend in the United Kingdom Growth around trend in Brazil

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Growth around trend in Canada Weakening growth in India

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

92 94 96 98 100 102 104

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Growth around trend in Russia

88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months.

The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic

activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the

CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be

reversed.

Paris, 10 April 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**

Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted Month on Month change Year on Year change

Growth cycle outlook

(long term average =100) (%) (%)

2012 2013 2012 2013 Latest

month

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

OECD Area

100.0 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.5 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.36 growth firming

Euro Area

99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 99.9 0.01 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.15 -0.01 growth picking up

Major Five Asia*

99.3 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.11 -0.10 growth picking up

Major Seven

100.1 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.7 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.48 growth around

trend

Canada

99.7 99.6 99.5 99.5 99.4 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.49 growth around trend

France

99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.6 -0.07 -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 -0.40 no further decline

in growth

Japan

99.9 100.1 100.3 100.6 100.9 0.06 0.14 0.22 0.28 0.31 0.44 growth firming

Germany

98.9 99.0 99.2 99.5 99.7 0.03 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.23 -0.20 growth picking up

Italy

99.1 99.2 99.3 99.4 99.5 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.13 -0.22 positive change in

momentum

United Kingdom

100.4 100.6 100.7 100.7 100.7 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.03 0.01 1.43 growth around

trend

United States

100.5 100.7 100.9 101.0 101.2 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.78 growth firming

Brazil

99.5 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 -0.03 -0.06 -0.04 0.01 0.09 0.88 growth around trend

China

99.6 99.8 99.9 100.1 100.3 0.09 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.17 0.46 growth picking up

India

97.9 97.6 97.3 97.1 96.8 -0.21 -0.26 -0.27 -0.28 -0.30 -2.78 weakening growth

Russia

99.4 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 -0.02 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.06 -2.53 growth around

trend

* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

**CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at:

http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI