Paris, 10 April 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Composite leading indicators point to growth picking up in most major economies
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend, point to growth picking up in most major economies.
In the United States and Japan, the CLIs continue to point to economic growth firming. The CLI for China provides a more positive outlook compared with last month’s assessment, with the CLI now pointing towards growth picking up.
In the Euro Area as a whole, and in particular in Germany, the CLIs continue to indicate a pick-up in growth.
The CLIs point to no further decline in growth in France and to a positive change in momentum in Italy.
The CLIs for the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil and Russia point to growth close to trend rates while the CLI for India indicates weakening growth.
Growth firming in the OECD area Growth picking up in China
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Growth firming in the United States Growth picking up in the Euro area
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Methodological Notes:
The CLI methodological notes are available at: www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/44728410.pdf Watch our video explaining the CLIs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UY8iPW0GVAo Access data: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
Contacts:
For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail news.contact@oecd.org.
For technical questions contact stat.contact@oecd.org
Next release: 14 May 2013
Paris, 10 April 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Growth firming in Japan No further decline in growth in France
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Growth picking up in Germany Positive change in momentum in Italy
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Growth around trend in the United Kingdom Growth around trend in Brazil
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Growth around trend in Canada Weakening growth in India
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
92 94 96 98 100 102 104
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Growth around trend in Russia
88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months.
The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic
activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the
CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be
reversed.
Paris, 10 April 2013 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**
Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted Month on Month change Year on Year change
Growth cycle outlook
(long term average =100) (%) (%)
2012 2013 2012 2013 Latest
month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
OECD Area
100.0 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.5 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.36 growth firmingEuro Area
99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 99.9 0.01 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.15 -0.01 growth picking upMajor Five Asia*
99.3 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.11 -0.10 growth picking upMajor Seven
100.1 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.7 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.48 growth aroundtrend
Canada
99.7 99.6 99.5 99.5 99.4 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.49 growth around trendFrance
99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.6 -0.07 -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 -0.40 no further declinein growth
Japan
99.9 100.1 100.3 100.6 100.9 0.06 0.14 0.22 0.28 0.31 0.44 growth firmingGermany
98.9 99.0 99.2 99.5 99.7 0.03 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.23 -0.20 growth picking upItaly
99.1 99.2 99.3 99.4 99.5 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.13 -0.22 positive change inmomentum
United Kingdom
100.4 100.6 100.7 100.7 100.7 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.03 0.01 1.43 growth aroundtrend
United States
100.5 100.7 100.9 101.0 101.2 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.78 growth firmingBrazil
99.5 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 -0.03 -0.06 -0.04 0.01 0.09 0.88 growth around trendChina
99.6 99.8 99.9 100.1 100.3 0.09 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.17 0.46 growth picking upIndia
97.9 97.6 97.3 97.1 96.8 -0.21 -0.26 -0.27 -0.28 -0.30 -2.78 weakening growthRussia
99.4 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 -0.02 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.06 -2.53 growth aroundtrend
* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.
**CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at:
http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
