Paris, 14 June 2011 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
The OECD composite leading indicators signal mild loss of growth momentum
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to a mild loss of growth momentum in most major economies for April 2011.
A notable exception is the United States which continues expanding relative to trend, albeit more moderately than in last month’s assessment. The CLIs point to a stable pace of expansion in Germany and the United Kingdom, clear signs of slowdown in the pace of activity in France and Italy, and a likely moderation of growth towards its long-term trend in Canada.
The CLI for China points to a possible moderation in economic activity. Other CLIs indicate a slowdown in Brazil and India and the first sign of a loss of growth momentum in Russia.
Because of the exceptional circumstances the country is facing, it is not possible to provide reliable estimates of the CLI for Japan at this stage.
The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest that in ASEAN economies the growth momentum will continue (Read more).
Stable pace of expansion in the OECD area Loss of growth momentum in China
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Expansion in the United States Mild loss of growth momentum in the Euro area
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Methodological Notes:
The CLI methodological notes are available at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/22/47/44728410.pdf Access data:
CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI The OECD Development Centre’s ABCIs are available at: www.oecd.org/dev/asiapacific/abcis Contacts:
For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail news.contact@oecd.org. For technical questions contact stat.contact@oecd.org
Next release: 11 July 2011
Paris, 14 June 2011 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Stable pace of expansion in Germany Slowdown in France
80 85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Stable, slow pace of expansion in the United Kingdom Slowdown in Italy
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mild loss of growth momentum in Canada Slowdown in Brazil
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Possible loss of growth momentum in Russia Slowdown in India
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
85 90 95 100 105 110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators
(CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in
economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately
six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-
term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark
confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark
provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Paris, 14 June 2011 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**
Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted Month on Month growth rate Year on Year growth
rate
Growth cycle outlook
(long term average =100) (%) (%)
2010 2011 2010 2011 Latest
month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
OECD Area
102.5 102.8 102.9 103.0 103.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 stable pace of expansionEuro Area
103.2 103.3 103.3 103.1 102.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 mild loss of growth momentumMajor Five Asia*
101.8 101.8 101.7 101.4 101.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 loss of growth momentumMajor Seven
102.6 103.0 103.3 103.4 103.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 stable pace of expansionCanada
101.7 102.0 102.1 102.0 101.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.8 mild loss of growth momentumFrance
102.6 102.7 102.5 102.2 101.7 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -1.3 slowdownJapan
Germany
104.4 104.5 104.6 104.6 104.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 1.3 stable pace of expansionItaly
102.7 102.6 102.4 102.1 101.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -2.0 slowdownUnited Kingdom
101.7 101.7 101.7 101.6 101.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 stable, slow pace of expansionUnited States
102.2 102.7 103.1 103.3 103.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.8 expansionBrazil
100.3 99.9 99.3 98.7 98.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -3.3 slowdownChina
102.0 101.9 101.6 101.1 100.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -1.6 loss of growth momentumIndia
100.3 100.0 99.5 99.0 98.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -2.9 slowdownRussia
104.5 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 5.2 possible loss of growth momentum* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.
** CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
