2015담양세계대나무엑스포 타당성 조사

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(1)C2011-25 | 2011.9. 2015담양세계대나무엑스포 타당성 조사. 김 최 홍 임. 용 경 준 지. 렬 환 표 은. 연 구 위 원 연 구 위 원 부연구위원 연. 구. 원.

(2) 연구 담당 김 최 홍 임. 용 경 준 지. 렬 환 표 은. 연 구 위 원 연 구 위 원 부연구위원 연 구 원. 연구 총괄, 제1~3장, 제8-9장 집필 제5장 집필 제7-8장 집필 제4장, 제6장 집필.

(3) 머 리 말. 세계화가 급속히 진행되고 있는 것과 동시에 지역의 특화, 지역적 차별화, 지역의 특 수성도 함께 강조되고 있다. 이에 대한 지역의 대응 방안 중에 하나가 지역의 특성을 살 린 지역축제의 개최이다. 더욱이 지역자원을 활용한 지역축제는 지역경제 활성화와 지 역의 활력화를 위해 좋은 대안으로 인정받고 있다. 이에 담양군에 준비하고 있는 ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣는 지역축제를 한 단계 향 상시킨 세계인의 행사라고 할 수 있다. 많은 사람들은 대나무 가치에 대해 잘 모르고 있 다. 보통 대나무의 활용가치를 관상용, 죽세공품 및 죽순 요리 재료 정도로 생각한다. 그 러나 대나무는 다른 수종보다 뛰어난 이산화탄소 흡수 기능으로 온실가스 절감을 위한 주요 자원으로 지목되고 있으며, 바이오매스, 섬유, 건강식품, 화장품 등 다양한 분야에 서 이용되고 있다. 대나무가 단순 공예 재료가 아니라 자원 고갈 시대에 주목받는 ‘친환 경 신산업 자원’으로 발돋움 할 가능성이 높은 것으로 보이는 이유이다. 예부터 대나무의 고장이라 불리던 담양은 대나무의 문화‧예술적 가치뿐 아니라 대나 무의 환경‧산업적 가치를 인식하여 ‘대숲에서 찾은 녹색미래’를 주제로 ｢2015담양세계 대나무엑스포｣ 개최 계획을 갖고 있다. 올해로 13회째를 맞은 담양 대나무 축제 경험을 바탕으로 세계인을 대상으로 담양의 대나무를 알리고, 중국 등 타국과 교류를 통해 대나 무 산업 활성화를 꾀하고자 계획하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣ 개최의 경제적 타당성을 종합적으로 검 증하였다. ｢기본계획｣의 적절성을 검토하고 비용/편익 비율과 순현재가치를 통해 경제 적 타당성을 분석하였다. 또한 엑스포 개최에 따른 전남 지역과 담양지역에 미치는 경제 적 파급효과도 추정하였다. 이 연구 결과가 담양의 세계대나무엑스포가 일회성의 소모적인 행사로 그칠 것인지, 아니면 추후 대나무 산업 활성화 및 대나무 가치 인식 제고를 통한 담양 및 전남 지역 발전에 도움이 될 것인지를 판단하는 데 유용한 판단 근거가 되기를 기대한다.. 2011. 9. 한국농촌경제연구원장 오 세 익.

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(5) 요. 약. 본 연구의 목적은 ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣ 개최의 경제적 타당성을 종합적으로 검증하는 것으로서, 기본구상을 점검하고 경제적 파급 효과 등을 분석하였음. 주요 연구 내용은 국제행사로서의 세계대나무엑스포의 경제적 타당성, 재원 조달계획 의 적정성, 국고지원 범위와 지원비율 및 지원재원 등의 타당성, 분야별 종합계획의 타 당성 분석 등임. 이를 위하여 기존의 연구자료 및 통계자료를 활용하였으며, 국민여행실 태조사와 대국민 설문조사를 통하여 수요추정을 하였음. 엑스포 개최 타당성을 검토하 기 위하여 비용/편익 비율(Benefit-Cost Ratio: BCR)과 순현재가치(Net Present Value: NPV)를 통해 재무적 및 경제적 타당성을 분석하였으며, 엑스포 개최에 따른 경제적 파 급효과를 추정하기 위하여 지역산업연관모형을 활용하여 전국 및 전남지역에 미치는 영 향(효과)을 분석하였음. 대나무는 강인한 생명력이 있으며 온실효과 절감 효과가 큰 수종으로 환경적 가치가 높음. 또한 전통적인 문화 및 예술적 소재로 활용되는 문화적 가치를 지니고 있고, 바이 오 산업 및 식품 산업의 원료로 각광을 받는 등 산업적 가치도 가지고 있음. 담양은 대나 무의 생육에 매우 좋은 천혜의 고장이며, 1,797ha(전국의 25.5%)의 질 좋은 대나무가 자 라고 있는 대나무의 본고장임. 담양의 대나무는 1차 산업을 비롯해 2차 산업, 3차 산업에 이르기까지 모든 산업분야에 적용되고 있음. 최근에는 신약 바이오 제품 등까지 모든 산 업 분야에 적용되고 있음. ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣는 ‘대숲에서 찾은 녹색 미래’를 주제로 하는 산업엑스포 로서 인류의 지속 가능한 발전을 위한 소재로서의 대나무의 가치를 재발견하고 담양군 의 미래 도시비전을 반영하는 것을 목적으로 함. 개최기간은 2015년 6월 20일부터 7월 19일까지 30일간이며, 공간적으로는 전라남도 담양군 담양읍 향교리 죽녹원 일원에서 개최됨. 재무적 타당성 분석 결과 BC ratio는 1.05～1.48로 수익성이 있는 것으로 판단되었음. 엑스포 개최에 따른 혜택이 사회적으로 귀속되는 것을 감안한 경제적 타당성 분석 결과 에서는 엑스포 개최에 따른 순효과를 고려하지 않았을 경우의 BC ratio는 0.89, 고려했을 경우에는 BC ratio가 1.48로 계측되었고 지역경제 파급효과나 정책적 타당성 분석을 고 려한다면 전체적으로 엑스포 개최에 따른 경제적 타당성은 있는 것으로 나타났음. 한편, 엑스포 개최에 따른 담양군 내 지역경제 파급효과는 생산유발효과가 1,929억 원, 부가가 치유발효과가 852억 원, 고용유발효과는 5,801명으로 분석되었음. - i -.

(6) 종합적으로 볼 때, ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣ 개최의 경제적 타당성은 양호한 것으 로 나타났음. 또한, 엑스포에 대한 주민의 공감대가 크며 담양군의 비전 및 관련 지역개 발계획과의 연계성이 높고 지역경제에 대한 파급 효과도 큰 것으로 나타났음.. < 2015담양세계대나무엑스포의 개요 > 구. 분. 행 사 명. 내. 용. 2015담양세계대나무엑스포 (2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo, Korea). 주. 제. 대숲에서 찾은 녹색미래(안). 기. 간. 2015. 06. 20 (토) ～ 07. 19 (일) / 총 30일간. 장. 소. 전라남도 담양군 담양읍 향교리 죽녹원 일원. 유치목표. 약 120만 명. 내. 전시, 공연, 학술, 체험, 이벤트, 공식행사 등. 용. 예 산 액. 총 145억 원. - ii -.

(7) ABSTRACT. A Feasibility Study for ｢2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo, Korea｣. The purpose of this study is to examine feasibility of the 'Master Plan of 2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo, Korea' and to analyze the following economic effect. Key details of this study include an analysis of conditions of the bamboo industry in Damyang, examination of the master plan for the Expo, estimate of visitors, and examination of feasibility. To this end, we used existing data and statistics, and estimated the demand by means of survey for people's traveling and questionnaires for ordinary Koreans. For examining financial feasibility for hosting the Expo, BC ratio (Benefit-Cost Ratio) and NPV (Net Present Value) was applied. For estimating the economic effect following the Expo, the effect on all over the country and the Jeon-nam Province was analyzed, using the MRIO (Model of Regional Input-Output). A theme of the ｢2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo, Korea｣ is 'The Green Future found in Bamboo Wood' and a purpose of the Expo is to revisit the value of bamboo and the vision of Damyang's future. Damyang is known for the best place for bamboo's growth and the cultivation-area of the bamboo in Damyang is about 1,797 ha(25.5% nationwide). In an analysis of economic feasibility test, both the financial feasibility and the economic feasibility show more than 1.0 BC ratio. Specifically, with the net effect of Expo, the economic feasibility test shows 1.48 BC ratio and 5,671 million won NPV. Furthermore, the Expo feeds through Damyang's regional economies with production induction effect, value-added induction effect, and employment induction effect. The amounts of regional effects are 192.9 billion won, 85.2 billion won, and 5,801 persons, respectively. In summary, the ｢2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo, Korea｣ was analyzed profitable in general. Residents in Damyang expects the Expo to bring vitalities into their hometown. The Expo is highly related to the development plan of Damyang and to the bamboo industries in the area.. - iii -.

(8) < Overview of 2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo, Korea> Description Event. 2015 Damyang World Bamboo Expo, Korea. Subject. Green Future found in Bamboo Wood(draft). Period. June 20 to July 19, 2015 (30 days). Venue. Jeon-nam Damyang-gun Damyang-eup Hyangkyo-ri Jookrokwon area. Expected Visitors. 1.20 million persons. Contents. Exhibitions, performance, seminars, experience events, entertaining events, formal events, etc.. Budget. 14.5 billion won. Researchers : Yong-lyoul Kim, Kyeong-hwan Choi, Jun-pyo Hong, Ji-eun Lim Research period : 2011. 5 ～ 2011. 9 E-mail address : kimyl@krei.re.kr, kyeong@krei.re.kr, jhong@krei.re.kr, jelim@krei.re.kr. - iv -.

(9) 차. 례. 제1장. 서 론 1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ··························································································· 1 2. 연구의 범위 및 내용 ··························································································· 2 3. 연구방법 ················································································································ 4. 제2장. 담양군의 지역여건 및 발전 잠재력 분석 1. 지리적 여건 ·········································································································· 5 2. 인구･역사 문화적 여건 ······················································································· 7 3. 산업 경제적 여건 ································································································· 9 4. 엑스포 개최를 위한 인프라 여건 ···································································· 12 5. 관련 발전･개발 계획 검토 ················································································ 19 6. 발전 잠재력과 SWOT 분석 ·············································································· 28. 제3장. 대나무 가치분석 1. 환경적 가치 ········································································································ 31 2. 문화적 가치 ········································································································ 32 3. 산업적 가치 ········································································································ 35 4. 대나무 가치의 종합평가 ···················································································· 60. 제4장. 국내외 관련 사례 분석 1. 국내 로컬 엑스포 사례 ····················································································· 64 2. 대나무 관련 국내 행사 사례 ············································································ 69 3. 대나무 관련 국외 행사 사례 ············································································ 73. 제5장. 기본구상 및 세부계획 1. 기본구상 ·············································································································· 77 2. 회장 조성 계획 ··································································································· 82 3. 전시관 구성 및 연출 계획 ················································································ 87. - v -.

(10) 4. 이벤트 계획 ········································································································ 97 5. 학술회의 개최 계획 ························································································· 101 6. 홍보 및 유치 계획 ··························································································· 103 7. 교통관리 계획 ··································································································· 113 8. 숙박 계획 ·········································································································· 114 9. 운영 계획 ·········································································································· 115 10. 예산 운용 계획 ······························································································· 131 11. 사후 활용 계획 ······························································································· 137 12. 소결: ｢기본계획｣에 대한 평가 ····································································· 139. 제6장. 방문객 분석 1. 전 국민 대상 방문의향 조사 ·········································································· 145 2. 엑스포 방문객 수 추정 ··················································································· 156. 제7장. 경제적 타당성 분석 1. 이론적 검토 ······································································································ 165 2. 비용 추정 ·········································································································· 168 3. 수입(편익) 추정 ································································································ 177 4. 재무성 분석 ······································································································ 185 5. 경제성 분석 ······································································································ 193 6. ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣ 사업의 경제적 타당성 분석 소결 ··············· 201. 제8장. 정책적 분석 1. 지역경제 파급효과 ··························································································· 203 2. 정책적 타당성 분석 ························································································· 211. 제9장. 종합평가 1. ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣ 개최의 필요성 ··············································· 217 2. ｢2015담양세계대나무엑스포｣ 계획의 적정성 ··············································· 218. 부록. 방문의향 설문조사 교차분석표 ························································· 221 참고문헌 ··········································································································· 247. - vi -.

(11) 표 차 례. 제2장 표 2-1. 담양군 기후 ································································································· 7 표 2-2. 담양군의 인구 추이 ···················································································· 8 표 2-3. 농어촌 지역 GRDP현황(2007년) ······························································ 9 표 2-4. 농촌 시군의 GRDP 순위와 담양군의 위치 ··········································· 10 표 2-5. 담양군의 2001년, 2009년 산업 중분류별 LQ및 LQ변화량 ················ 11 표 2-6. 당진군과 담양군의 사업체 수와 종사자 수의 비교(2009년) ··············· 12 표 2-7. 광주광역시 연결 고속버스 현황 ···························································· 13 표 2-8. 서울-광주 간 철도 운행 현황 ·································································· 14 표 2-9. 서울-광주 간 항공 운행 현황 ································································ 14 표 2-10. 담양군 숙박업소 현황(업종별, 2010) ······················································ 15 표 2-11. 농어촌민박 사업자 누계 현황 ································································· 15 표 2-12. 담양군 관광객 수 및 관광수입 ······························································· 16 표 2-13. 담양군 대나무 식재 면적 ········································································· 19 표 2-14. SWOT 분석 결과 ····················································································· 30. 제3장 표 3-1. 대나무와 관혼상제 ···················································································· 33 표 3-2. 민간신앙 및 설화와 대나무 ····································································· 33 표 3-3. 세계 대나무 자원 추정량(2005) ······························································ 36 표 3-4. 대나무와 한약재 ························································································ 38 표 3-5. 대나무 숯의 7대 건강효과 ······································································· 38 표 3-6. 대나무와 음식 ···························································································· 40 표 3-7. 담양군 대나무 식재 면적 ········································································· 46 표 3-8. 죽순 생산량(전국, 전남, 담양 비교) ······················································· 46 표 3-9. 죽재 생산량(전국, 전남, 담양 비교) ······················································· 47 표 3-10. 담양군의 대나무 관련 사업체 수와 종사자 수 ····································· 50 표 3-11. 담양군의 읍면별 대나무 관련 사업체 수 ·············································· 51. - vii -.

(12) 표 3-12. 담양군의 읍면별 대나무 관련 종사자 수 ·············································· 51 표 3-13. 담양군의 업종별 대나무 관련 사업체 수 ·············································· 52 표 3-14. 담양군의 규모별 대나무 관련 사업체 수 ·············································· 52 표 3-15. 조직형태별 사업체 수 ·············································································· 53 표 3-16. 담양군의 매출액 규모별 대나무 관련 사업체 수 ································· 53 표 3-17. 2010년 담양 대나무산업 경제적 직접 효과 ·········································· 55 표 3-18. 2015년 담양군 대나무 산업 경제적 규모 추정 ···································· 55 표 3-19. 죽재생산량과 생산액 ················································································ 56 표 3-20. 담양군 죽순생산량과 금액 ······································································· 57 표 3-21. 대나무 관련 사업체 매출액 추정 시 구간별 최소치를 적용할 경우 ·········· 58 표 3-22. 대나무 관련 사업체 매출액 추정 시 구간별 중간치를 적용할 경우 ·········· 58 표 3-23. 대나무 관련 사업체 매출액 추정 시 구간별 최고치를 적용할 경우 ·········· 59 표 3-24. 2010년 담양군 대나무 관광 직접 수입 추정액 ···································· 60. 제4장 표 4-1. 담양대나무축제 개최 현황 ····································································· 70 표 4-2. 국내 대나무 소재 프로그램 소개 ···························································· 72. 제5장 표 5-1. 엑스포 개최에 따른 기대효과 ································································· 79 표 5-2. 엑스포장 조성 개요 ·················································································· 85 표 5-3. 전시 ZONE별 내용 구성 ········································································ 86 표 5-4. 전시관 구성 ······························································································· 92 표 5-5. 이벤트 체험관 구성 ·················································································· 95 표 5-6. 지역 관광지 연계 프로그램 ··································································· 101 표 5-7. 국내외 행사 계획 ···················································································· 102 표 5-8. 세계대나무협회 정기 총회 행사 개요 ·················································· 102 표 5-9. 대나무 산업 컨퍼런스 행사 개요 ························································ 102 표 5-10. 대상별 홍보전략 ······················································································ 104 표 5-11. 주차장 확보 계획 ···················································································· 114 표 5-12. 담양군 숙박시설(2011. 3 기준) ····························································· 114 표 5-13. 운영 계획기준 지표 ················································································ 116 표 5-14. 서비스시설 계획 ······················································································ 120 - viii -.