Cain et al.(2001

1) * **

? A

2006 285 ,

21.68% 10 .

14km/h

¹⁾

, ,

.

(external costs)

, 1996 1, 3

.

.

.

* Texas A&M **

1) 2005 22.9km/h, 14km/h, 23.5km/h (

).

Wuestefeld and Regan(1981) : -0.03 -0.31

: -0.15 -0.31 16

Jones(1992) : -0.22

: -0.45

Harvey(1994) : -0.05 -0.15

: -0.10 Hirschman et al.(1995) -0.09 -0.50

: -0.25 6 , 2

Gifford and Talkington(1996) : -0.18 : -0.09

Cain et al.(2001) : -0.03 -0.36 2

Loo(2003) -0.10 -0.29 6

Matas and Raymond(2003) -0.21 -0.83

1, 3 ,

,

. .

1, 3 10 ,

.

. Oum et al.(1992) Goodwin(1992) , ,

. Oum et al.(1992)

60 , -0.13

-0.45, -0.09 -0.52, -0.14 -0.36 .

, , , .

. < 1> ,

.

(shrinkage ratio) (Wuestefeld and Regan, 1981; Jones, 1992;

Cain et al., 2001) (Hirschman et al., 1995; Gifford

and Talkington, 1996; Loo, 2003; Matas and Raymond, 2003) ,

-0.2 -0.3 .

. ( , , )

(Harvey, 1994). Wuestefeld and Regan

(1981) , ,

. Hirschman et al.(1995) ,

. Loo(2003) Hirschman et al.(1995)

, .

. Gifford and Talkington(1996)

, Cain et al.(2001) .

. Harvey(1994) ,

.

, 1, 3

.

, (1998), (2001) .

(2006)

, .

. 1, 3 (3

)

.

¯_ƒ

:

œ_ƒ

:

ž_ƒ

:

 _ƒ

:

¢_ƒ

: 1

Ÿ_ƒ

:

ĺ^£ſƌz ĺ^§ƍƔ

: 1 11

Ľ^¡

: ( =1, =0)

Ľ^ϛ

: 2 ( =1, =0)

Ľ^{ƁƆ ƃƍƌƅſƃ}

: ( =1)

Ľ^ƑƑƏ

: ( =1)

Ľ^ƁſƐ

: ( =1)

ƃ_Ɣ

: 1)

1, 3 ( ) ( )

.

, ,

.

1, 3 (double log)

.

. (1) .

“•¯_ƒá ĸ_×â ĸ_Γ•œ_ƒâ ĸ_ϓ•ž_ƒâ ĸ_Г•Þ _ƒî¢_ƒß â ĸ_ѓ•Ÿ_ƒâ ĸ_Òĺ^£ſƌâ ĸ_Óĺ^Ÿƃƀ

âzâĸ_ÎÒĺ^§ƍƔâ ĸ_ÎÓĽ^¡â ĸ_ÎÔĽ^ϛâ ĸ_ÎÕĽ^{ƁƆ ƃƍƌƅſƃ}â ĸ_ÎÖĽ^ƑƑƏâ ĸ_Ï׼^ƁſƐâ ƃ_Ƈ

(1)

,

.

.

ĸ_Î

.

2)

, 3 , , ,

.

(2) .

“•œ¯_ƒá ĸ_ƍâ ĸ_Γ•œ_ƒ? â ?_ϓ• _ƒâ ĸ_Г•¢_ƒâ ĸ_ѓ•«_ƒâ ĸ_ғ•Ÿ_ƒâ ĸ_Óĺ^£ſƌâ ĸ_Ôĺ^Ÿƃƀ

âzâ ĸ_ÎÓĺ^§ƍƔâ ĸ_ÎÔĽ^¡â ĸ_ÎÕĽ^ϛâ ĸ_ÎÖĽ^{ƁƆ ƃƍƌƅſƃ}â ĸ_Ï׼^ƑƑƏâ ĸ_ÏÎĽ^ƁſƐâ ƃ_Ɓ

“•§¯_ƒá ķ_×â ĸ_ϓ• _ƒâ ķ_Г•¢_ƒâ ķ_ѓ•«_ƒâ ķ_ғ•Ÿ_ƒâ ķ_Óĺ^£ſƌâ ķ_Ôĺ^Ÿƃƀ

âzâ ķ_ÎÓĺ^§ƍƔâ ķ_ÎÔĽ^¡â ķ_ÎÕĽ^ϛâ ķ_ÎÖĽ^{ƁƆ ƃƍƌƅſƃ}â ķ_Ï׼^ƑƑƏâ ķ_ÏÎĽ^ƁſƐâ ƃ_§

(2)

,

œ¯_ƒ

:

§¯_ƒ

:

œ_ƒ

:

«_ƒ

:

ƃ_œì ƃ_§

:

(zero) ,

(OLS: Ordinary Least Square) .

(GLS: Generalized Least Square)

(SUR: Seemingly Unrelated Regression) .

²⁾

SUR

,

ň_Ɓ^Ïì ň_§^Ïì ň_{œ §}^Ï

.

GLS . SUR

,

( , 2004).

2) SUR (pooling)

,

(joint) .

, . .

͡

͢͡͝͡͡͡

ͣ͡͝͡͡͡

ͤ͡͝͡͡͡

ͥ͡͝͡͡͡

ͦ͡͝͡͡͡

ͧ͡͝͡͡͡

ͨ͡͝͡͡͡

ͩ͡͝͡͡͡

ͪ͡͝͡͡͡

͢͡͡͝͡͡͡

ͪͪͧ͢ ͪͪͨ͢ ͪͪͩ͢ ͪͪͪ͢ ͣ͡͡͡ ͣ͢͡͡ ͣͣ͡͡ ͣͤ͡͡ ͣͥ͡͡ ͣͦ͡͡ 噊

皻窏峏͙堆͠滛朞柢儊͚ 凊 ͢笾瘶嘖 ͤ笾瘶嘖

1, 3

1996 11 2006 6

, 116 . 1, 3

, 4 2000 11

. 2001 4 (5

10 ) 1, 3 2000 11,869 (-13.6%)

. 2003 7 ,

1 2,335 (-6.6%) 3 1,711

(+4.4%) . 2004 3 2003

3,424 (-8.4%) , 1 9,104 .

1 , 3

.

... -+- -+-

͡

͢͡͝͡͡͡

ͣ͡͝͡͡͡

ͤ͡͝͡͡͡

ͥ͡͝͡͡͡

ͦ͡͝͡͡͡

ͧ͡͝͡͡͡

ͨ͡͝͡͡͡

ͪͪͧ͢ ͪͪͨ͢ ͪͪͩ͢ ͪͪͪ͢ ͣ͡͡͡ ͣ͢͡͡ ͣͣ͡͡ ͣͤ͡͡ ͣͥ͡͡ ͣͦ͡͡ 噊

皻窏峏͙堆͠滛朞柢儊͚ 滛朞焮峏 彺洢焮峏

1, 3

< 2> .

,

. 2001

. 2004 7

50% .

1, 3 < 3> ,

25.3% . ,

  .

1, 3 3 (HOV)

. 3 < 4> ,

5.7% 2004 13.6% , 79.5%

. 2001 4 7 10

6 , 7

.

... • ...

: /4 , %

96.11 97.11 98.11 01.11 02.11 03.11 04.11

23,752 (100)

21,960 (100)

23,205 (100)

22,592 (100)

22,841 (100)

22,860 (100)

25,354 (100) 18,628

(78.4)

13,070 (59.5)

12,260 (52.9)

13,107 (58.0)

12,675 (55.5)

12,741 (55.7)

13,910 (54.9) 792

(3.3)

1,148 (5.2)

1,285 (5.5)

1,174 (5.2)

1,332 (5.8)

1,281 (5.6)

2,222 (8.8) 1,848

(7.8)

4,178 (19.0)

5,759 (24.8)

4,853 (21.5)

5,667 (24.8)

5,135 (22.5)

6,082 (24.0) 2,484

(10.5)

3,564 (16.3)

3,901 (16.8)

3,458 (15.3)

3,167 (13.9)

3,703 (16.2)

3,140 (12.4)

: 1) 11 2 , < 1> .

2) 4 (07:00 09:00, 17:00 19:00) .

3) ( ) (%) .

: .

1, 3

: / , % 96.11

( )

97.11

( 1 )

98.11

( 2 )

99.11

( 3 )

00.11

( 4 )

01.11

( 5 )

02.11

( 6 )

03.11

( 7 )

04.11

( 8 )

05.11

( 9 )

1,3

- 28,313 (39.2)

24,399 (32.4)

24,822 (30.1)

24,694 (28.2)

28,403 (37.5)

28,241 (37.8)

26,229 (35.4)

30,150 (37.8)

37,286 (40.2) - 43,957

(60.8)

50,878 (67.6)

57,576 (69.9)

62,842 (71.8)

47,264 (62.5)

46,387 (62.2)

47,775 (64.6)

49,533 (62.2)

55,449 (59.8) 90,404 72,270 75,276 82,399 87,536 75,667 74,627 74,004 79,683 92,734

1

- 13,070 (39.6)

12,315 (33.3)

12,139 (30.6)

11,761 (28.1)

13,578 (37.9)

13,335 (37.5)

11,305 (34.0)

15,648 (36.9)

20,663 (40.0) - 19,935

(60.4)

24,613 (66.7)

27,470 (69.4)

30,075 (71.9)

22,295 (62.1)

22,267 (62.5)

21,962 (66.0)

26,723 (63.1)

31,055 (60.0) 39,982 33,005 36,929 39,609 41,836 35,873 35,602 33,267 42,371 51,717

3

- 15,243 (38.8)

12,083 (31.5)

12,684 (29.6)

12,934 (28.3)

14,825 (37.3)

14,905 (38.2)

14,924 (36.6)

14,501 (38.9)

16,623 (40.5) - 24,022

(61.2)

26,264 (68.5)

30,106 (70.4)

32,766 (71.7)

24,969 (62.7)

24,120 (61.8)

25,812 (63.4)

22,810 (61.1)

24,394 (59.5) 50,422 39,265 38,348 42,790 45,700 39,794 39,025 40,736 37,312 41,017

: 1) 07:00 21:00 ( / ) .

2) 1996. 11. · (2001) .

3) ( ) (%) .

: .

1, 3

: /4 , %

96.11 97.11 98.11 01.11 02.11 03.11 04.11

18,628 (100)

11,874 (100)

13,068 (100)

13,107 (100)

12,675 (100)

12,741 (100)

13,910 (100)

2 17,571

(94.3)

10,470 (80.1)

9,671 (78.9)

10,735 (81.9)

10,130 (79.9)

10,626 (83.4)

12,012 (86.4)

3 1,057

(5.7)

2,598 (19.9)

2,589 (21.1)

2,372 (18.1)

2,544 (20.1)

2,116 (16.6)

1,898 (13.6)

: 1) 4 (07:00 09:00, 17:00 19:00) .

2) ( ) (%) .

: .

1, 3

07:00 21:00 07:00 15:00 ,

2 ( ) 10

3 11

, , , ( , )

, , ,

2,000 ( )

800cc 1000 (2003. 7. 25)

1000 (2004. 7. 1)

(20,000 , 11 ), (10,000 , 11 )

1) (

œ_ƒ

)

1, 3 1996 11

2,000 . 10 2,000

. 2,000

(2006 6 =100) .

1, 3 5 ,

< 5> . 2,000 , 50% 1,000 ,

11 10 9.1% 1,818 , 909 , 3

.

. ,

< 3> < 4> .

1,200

•••

0

•

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800. 0 γ1

~、

v\ r---

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‘

⁰⁰⁰

200. 0

‘

^{12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12}

^’

^{6 9 12}

^’

^{69 12 3 69 1α 3 6 9 12}

^’

^{6 9 12}

^’

^{6 912 3 6 912}

^’

1997 199내 1999 2000 200

’

^{2002 2003 2004 200~}

. ..

3,000 0

r--..、

2.500 o

0

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2,000

• '""

o

• 000 0

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12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3

1997 199B 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200~

1

2) 1 (

¢_ƒ

)

.

1 . 1

(2006 6 =100) ,

.

1 < 5> , IMF 1997

.

3) (  

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)

.

, , LPG

³⁾

4)

.

,

. < 6> . 1997 12 1998 3 1998 9 1998

10 .

3) (www.petroleum.or.kr).

4) ( , ).

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'""

1. 00αm

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^{12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 •2 3 6 9 •2 3 6 9 •, ,}

1997

’

^{998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005}

( / )

4) (

ž_ƒ

)

, ,

. 1, 3

. < 7>

, IMF 1997 5

.

를’ Jf~(앤) 1.60

1 ‘。

1,20

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iI 12 3 6 9 12 3 6

’

12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 lZ 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3

진영 5200

5000

4900

4600

4400

4200

4000

3900

'99

’

¹⁹⁹⁸

’

^{999 2000 200}

’

^{2002 2003 2004 2005}

~ ^J이

1""1기 ^λ〈

F\

^{fγ\ “νz v}

/ \

\ j

~

ι‘

‘

^{12 3 6} 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 •2 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

5) (

«_ƒ

)

.

, < 8> .

6) (

Ÿ_ƒ

)

.

.

.

7)

1, 3 ,

, , .

,

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6> .

2 1, 3

.

이

‘

^{12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 •2 3 6 9 •2 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3}

’

^{997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2뼈 2004 2005}

Ľ^¡ 1999.2 2006.6 -

Ľ^ϛ 1999.2 2001.5 2 +

Ľ^{ƁƆ ƃƍƌƅſƃ} 2003.7 2005.9 -

Ľ^¬ƑƏ 2004.3 2004.5 -

Ľ^{œ ſƐ} 2004.7 2006.6 +

ĺ^£ſƌ ĺ^§ƍƔ +/-

.

“ 50% ”

.

.

. .

< 7> 1, 3

1 , 3

. F- 0.000 “

”

. (

^ć«^Ï

) 0.71 0.86 .

Hirschmann et al.(1995)

(

«^Ï

: 0.70 0.96) Loo(2003) (

«^Ï

: 0.83 0.97)

.

<

8> 0.805,

0.753 .

1, 3 1 3

6.880** 0.000 9.008** 0.000 3.879** 0.004

Log(œ ) -0.318** 0.000 -0.359** 0.000 -0.240** 0.000

Log( î¢ ) 0.108* 0.074 0.197** 0.014 0.037 0.468

Log(ž ) 0.920** 0.000 0.773** 0.007 0.998** 0.000

Log(Ÿ ) -0.090 0.290 -0.207* 0.078 0.020 0.777

ĺ^£ſƌ -0.037** 0.004 -0.038** 0.031 -0.036** 0.001

ĺ^šƓƅ -0.026* 0.052 -0.020 0.262 -0.030** 0.008

Ľ^¡ -0.013 0.505 0.012 0.636 -0.033** 0.047

Ľ^ϛ 0.061** 0.000 0.038** 0.033 0.085** 0.000

Ľ^{ƁƆƃƍƌƅſƃ} -0.066** 0.000 -0.127** 0.000 -0.006 0.550

Ľ^¬ƑƏ -0.054** 0.045 -0.023 0.520 -0.076** 0.001

Ľ^œſƐ 0.093** 0.000 0.277** 0.000 -0.085** 0.000

ć«^Ï 0.802 0.862 0.714

D-W 0.823 0.806 1.148

Ÿà ƔſƊƓƃ 43.477 66.298 27.095

Ÿà ƑƇƅí 0.000 0.000 0.000

: ** * 0.05 0.10 .

.

, .

(+) , 0.01 .

. 0.01

. 0.729, -0.418

, . 10%

7.3% , 4.2% .

1, 3 .

3

3.323 0.457 6.566** 0.006

LOG(œ ) -0.333* 0.100

LOG(  ) 0.113 0.180 0.113 0.180

LOG(¢ ) 0.729** 0.000 -0.418** 0.000

LOG(« ) 0.089 0.660 0.605** 0.000

LOG(Ÿ ) -0.405** 0.003 0.056 0.631

ĺ^£ſƌ -0.120** 0.000 -0.022 0.314

ĺ^Ÿƃƀ -0.087** 0.000 0.005 0.821

ĺ^¦ſƐ -0.042* 0.092 0.005 0.811

ĺ^šƎƐ 0.008 0.733 -0.027 0.217

ĺ^¦ſƗ 0.005 0.823 -0.036 0.103

ĺ^£Ɠƌƃ -0.023 0.335 -0.014 0.524

ĺ^£ƓƊƗ -0.051** 0.044 -0.014 0.539

ĺ^šƓƅ -0.076** 0.002 -0.025 0.259

ĺ^¬ƃƎ 0.007 0.770 -0.007 0.752

ĺ^¨Ɓƒ 0.000 0.983 0.003 0.872

ĺ^§ƍƔ 0.000 0.979 -0.011 0.594

Ľ^¡ 0.008 0.807 -0.065** 0.038

Ľ^ϛ -0.035 0.184 0.214** 0.000

Ľ^{ƁƆƃƍƌƅſƃ} -0.112** 0.000 -0.029* 0.070

Ľ^¬ƑƏ -0.168** 0.000 0.096** 0.004

Ľ^œſƐ 0.213** 0.000 0.066** 0.025

ć«^Ï 0.805 0.753

D-W 0.841 1.082

: ** * 0.05 0.10 .

.

1 8

, . 1 8

. .

2

, .

.

, (-)

. ,

.

, .

-0.24 -0.36 ,

-0.33 .

Oum et al.(1992) (-0.13 -0.45), (-0.1

4 -0.36), (-0.09 -0.52) , Hirschman et al.(1995) (-0.13 -0.50)

Loo (2003) (-0.10 -0.29) .

, .

, 1, 3

(OLS) .

,

(SUR) .

,

.

-0.24 -0.36 ,

. 1, 3

, .

. ,

,

. , ,

. ,

1, 3

.

(2002), “ ”, .

( ), “ ”.

(2001), “ ”, .

(2002), “ ”, .

(2004), “ ”, .

(2005), “Eviews ”, .

(2006), “ ”, .

( ), “ ”.

(1998), “ ”,

.

Cain, A., M. W. Burris and R. M. Pendyala (2001), “Impact of Variable Pricing on Temporal Distribution of Travel Demand”, Transportation Research Record, 1747, pp. 36-43.

Gifford, J. L. and S. W. Talkington(1996), “Demand Elasticity under Time-Varying Prices: Case study of Day-of-Week Varying Tolls on Golden Gate Bridge”, Transportation Research Record, 1558, pp. 55-59.

Goodwin, P. B.(1992), “A Review of New Demand Elasticities with Special Reference to Short and Long Run Effects of Price Changes”, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 26, pp.

155-170.

Harvey, G.(1994), “Transportation Pricing Behavior, Curbing Gridlock: Peak-Period Fees to Relieve Traffic Congestion”, Transportation Research Board, Special Report 242, pp. 89-114.

Hirschman, I., C. McKnight, J. Pucher, R. E. Paaswell and J. Berechman(1995), “Bridge and Tunnel Toll Elasticities in New York: Some Recent Evidence”, Transportation, Vol. 22, pp. 97-113.

Hirschman, I., J. Pucher and K. Baker(1993), “Factors Affecting Motor Vehicle Travel into New York City's CBD”, Transportation Quarterly, Vol. 47, pp. 61-77.

Ison, S. and T. Rye(2005), “Implementing Road User Charging: The Lessons Learnt from Hong Kong, Cambridge, and Central London”, Transport Reviews, Vol. 25, pp. 451-466.

Jones, P.(1992), “Restraining Car Traffic in European Cities: An Emerging Role for Road Pricing”, Transportation Research A, Vol. 26A, pp. 133-145.

Litman, T.(2006), “Transportation Elasticities: How Prices and Other Factors Affect Travel Behavior”,

Victoria Transport Policy Institute.

Loo, B. P. Y.(2003), “Tunnel Traffic and Toll Elasticities in Hong Kong: Some Recent Evidence for International Comparisons”, Environment and Planning A, Vol. 35, pp. 249-276.

Matas, A. and J. Raymond(2003), “Demand Elasticity on Tolled Motorways”, Journal of Transportation and Statistics, Vol. 6, pp. 91-108.

Oum, T. H. (1989), “Alternative Demand Models and Their Elasticity Estimates”, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 13, pp. 163-187.

Oum, T. H., W. G. Waters II and J. S. Yong(1992), “Concepts of Price Elasticities of Transport Demand and Recent Empirical Estimates: An Interpretative Survey”, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 26, pp. 139-154.

Wuestefeld, N. H. and E. J. Regan III(1981), “Impact of Rate Increases on Toll Facilities”, Traffic Quarterly, Vol. 35, pp. 639-655.