12:00 P.M.
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
July Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch
July 12, 2018
Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops
Winter Wheat Citrus Tobacco
Other Spring Wheat Apricots
Durum Wheat Almonds
Barley Oats
Contents
USDA-NASS
Ag Yield Objective Yield
Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement
Crops Included
Winter, Other Spring, &
Durum Wheat, Oats, Barley, Tobacco
Winter Wheat
States 34 10
Sample Size 6,841 1,470
Collection Period June 29 – July 9 June 23 – July 1
Survey Overview
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Percent
U.S. Winter Wheat Condition
Percent Rated Good to Excellent
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USDA-NASS 0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent
U.S. Winter Wheat Progress
Percent Harvested
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, Winter
Harvested Mil Ac 24.8 NC -1.8
Yield Bu/Ac 48.0 -0.8 -4.4
Production Bil Bu 1.19 -0.4 -6.1
Production by Class
Hard Red Mil Bu 657 +1.1 -12.4
Soft Red Mil Bu 303 -4.0 +3.6
White Mil Bu 232 +0.2 +2.4
48.0
30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Bushels per Acre
Winter Wheat Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
USDA-NASS NASS
Estimate
Low
Of Expectations
Average
Of Expectations
High
Of Expectations
Winter Wheat Objective Yield - July
Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
Year Mature
---Percent---
2012 77
2013 55
2014 58
2015 64
2016 68
2017 69
2018 69
2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
Jun-18
Jul-18
0.530 0.540 0.550 0.560 0.570 0.580 0.590 0.600 0.610 0.620 0.630 0.640 0.650 0.660 0.670 0.680 0.690 0.700
38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
Grams/Head
Heads Per Square Foot
Wheat Objective Yield Region
Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight
Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006)
High
Of Expectations
USDA-NASS NASS
Estimate
Low
Of Expectations
Average
Of Expectations
High
Of Expectations
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Percent
U.S. Other Spring Wheat Condition
Percent Rated Good to Excellent
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NASS
Estimate
Low
Of Expectations
Average
Of Expectations
High
Of Expectations
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, Other Spring
Harvested Mil Ac 12.9 NC +27.0
Yield Bu/Ac 47.6 NA +16.1
Production Mil Bu 614 NA +47.5
USDA-NASS
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, Durum
Harvested Mil Ac 1.84 NC -13.8
Yield Bu/Ac 40.7 NA +58.4
Production Mil Bu 74.9 NA +36.4
USDA-NASS
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
All Wheat
Harvested Mil Ac 39.6 NC +5.3
Yield Bu/Ac 47.5 NA +2.6
Production Bil Bu 1.88 NA +8.1
USDA-NASS NASS
Estimate
Low
Of Expectations
Average
Of Expectations
High
Of Expectations
1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.90 1.91 1.92 1.93
July August Final
Billion Bushels
2018 United States All Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
NASS
Estimate
Low
Of Expectations
Average
Of Expectations
High
Of Expectations
1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.35
May June July August Final
Billion Bushels
2018 United States Winter Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS NASS
Estimate
Low
Of Expectations
Average
Of Expectations
High
Of Expectations
560 570 580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650 660
July August Final
Million Bushels
2018 United States Other Spring Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
NASS
Estimate
Low
Of Expectations
Average
Of Expectations
High
Of Expectations
55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0
July August Final
Million Bushels
2018 United States Durum Wheat Production
Industry Expectations vs NASS
USDA-NASS
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Oats
Harvested Mil Ac 1.01 NC +26.0
Yield Bu/Ac 65.8 NA +6.6
Production Mil Bu 66.4 NA +34.4
Barley
Harvested Mil Ac 2.05 NC +4.7
Yield Bu/Ac 75.6 NA +4.1
Production Mil Bu 155 NA +8.9
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
Oranges Mil Tons 3.86 -0.8 -24.1
Grapefruit Thou Tons 517 -6.5 -25.9
Tangerines &
Mandarins Thou Tons 836 -4.6 -19.1
Lemons Thou Tons 872 NC -1.6
USDA-NASS
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Tobacco, Flue-Cured
Harvested Thou Ac 205 NC -2.4
Yield Lbs/Ac 2,111 NA -4.0
Production Mil Lbs 432 NA -6.3
July 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit July Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
Almonds (CA) Bil Lbs 2.45 +6.5 +7.9
Apricots Thou Tons 39.8 NA -12.8
USDA-NASS
Release Date Report Title
July 20 Cattle
Cattle on Feed
July 30 Agricultural Prices
August 1 CAIR: Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Flour Milling, Grain Crushings Honey Bee Colonies
August 2
Cash Rents
Farm Production Expenditures Land Values
August 10 Cotton Ginnings
Crop Production
