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(1)

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Small Grains Summary Grain Stocks

Executive Summary

Anthony Prillaman, Head Field Crops Section

September 29, 2017

(2)

USDA-NASS

Field Crops Grain Stocks Oilseed Stocks

Wheat Corn Soybeans

Barley Wheat Sunflower

Oats Barley Safflower

Rye Oats Mustard Seed

Sorghum

Contents

(3)

USDA-NASS

September Ag Survey Off- Farm Grain Stocks Survey

Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities Collection

Method

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal Interview

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal Interview

Crops Included Barley, Oats, Rye, Wheat

Barley, Corn, Mustard Seed, Oats, Soybean, Safflower, Sorghum, Sunflower, Wheat States All Except Hawaii All States Except AK, HI, and NV

Sample Size 66,155 ~ 8,500 Facilities

Collection Period August 30 – September 18 August 30 – September 16

Survey Overview

(4)

USDA-NASS

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Wheat, Winter

Planted Mil Ac 32.7 -0.4 -9.6

Harvested Mil Ac 25.3 -1.8 -16.4

Yield Bu/Ac 50.2 +0.4 -9.2

Production Bil Bu 1.27 -1.4 -24.1

(5)

32.7

25.3

20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million Acres

Winter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

(6)

50.2

30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Bushels per Acre

Winter Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

(7)

USDA-NASS

(8)

USDA-NASS

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Wheat, Spring

Planted Mil Ac 11.0 +1.0 -4.7

Harvested Mil Ac 10.2 -3.2 -9.7

Yield Bu/Ac 41.0 +7.0 -13.3

Production Mil Bu 416 +3.7 -21.8

(9)

11.0

10.2

9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million Acres

Other Spring Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

(10)

41.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Bushels per Acre

Other Spring Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

(11)

USDA-NASS

(12)

USDA-NASS

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Wheat, Durum

Planted Mil Ac 2.31 +20.2 -4.4

Harvested Mil Ac 2.14 +15.0 -9.5

Yield Bu/Ac 25.7 -5.5 -41.6

Production Mil Bu 54.9 +8.7 -47.2

(13)

2.31

2.14

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million Acres

Durum Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

(14)

25.7

15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Bushels per Acre

Durum Wheat Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

(15)

USDA-NASS

(16)

USDA-NASS

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Wheat, All

Planted Mil Ac 46.0 +0.8 -8.2

Harvested Mil Ac 37.6 -1.4 -14.3

Yield Bu/Ac 46.3 +1.5 -12.1

Production Bil Bu 1.74 +0.1 -24.6

(17)

USDA-NASS

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Barley

Planted Mil Ac 2.48 +4.4 -18.9

Harvested Mil Ac 1.95 +0.4 -23.8

Yield Bu/Ac 72.6 +0.7 -6.8

Production Mil Bu 142 +1.2 -29.0

(18)

USDA-NASS

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Oats

Planted Mil Ac 2.59 +2.1 -8.5

Harvested Mil Ac 0.801 -9.0 -18.3

Yield Bu/Ac 61.7 +1.1 -6.5

Production Mil Bu 49.4 -8.1 -23.7

(19)

USDA-NASS

Small Grains Annual Summary

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Rye

Planted Mil Ac 1.96 -8.1 +3.7

Harvested Mil Ac 0.286 -33.5 -30.9

Yield Bu/Ac 33.9 NA +4.3

Production Mil Bu 9.70 NA -27.9

(20)

USDA-NASS

Crop 2015 2016 2017

Percent

Other Spring Wheat 4.8 8.4 8.1

Durum Wheat 9.2 17.0 8.5

Barley 3.0 5.7 7.0

Oats 8.6 7.7 13.4

Percent of Acres Left to be Harvested

United States

(21)

2.51

2.82 2.87

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.92

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion Bushels

All Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun

USDA-NASS

(22)

12.5

14.3

13.7

14.7

14.1 13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

16.9

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

Billion Bushels

Corn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

(23)

3.65

3.25 3.17

3.50 3.48

3.31 3.21

3.50

4.02 4.12

4.49

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

Billion Bushels

Soybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

(24)

USDA-NASS

Previous Estimates

Sept 29

Estimates Change

Million Bushels

Sept 1, 2016 Beginning Stocks 197

197 NC

2016 Production 4,307

4,296 -11

Imports *25

*25 NC

Total Supply 4,529

4,518 -11

Crushings *1,895

*1,895 NC

Exports *2,170

*2,170 NC

Seed *104

*104 NC

Measured Disappearance *4,169

*4,169 NC

Ending Stocks *345

301 -44

Residual 14

48 +34

2016 Soybean Crop

*WAOB Forecast – September WASDE Report

(25)

USDA-NASS

September 1, 2017 Grain Stocks

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Year

Stocks

Barley Mil Bu 180 NA -22.0

Oats Mil Bu 71.8 NA -8.6

Sorghum Mil Bu 33.5 NA -8.4

(26)

USDA-NASS

September 1, 2017 Oilseed Stocks

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Year

Stocks

All Sunflower Mil Lbs 649 NA +57.5

Safflower Mil Lbs 18.7 NA +26.4

Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 7.06 NA (D)

(27)

USDA-NASS

Release Date Report Title

October 2

CAIR: Cotton

CAIR: Grain Crushings CAIR: Fats & Oils

October 12 Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

October 20 Cattle on Feed

October 24 Cotton Ginnings

October 27 Rice Stocks

October 30 Ag Prices

Upcoming Reports

(28)

USDA-NASS

(29)

USDA-NASS

(30)

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available At

www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions

202-720-2127 800-727-9540

[email protected]

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