12:00 P.M.
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
November Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch
November 9, 2017
USDA-NASS
Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops
Corn Citrus Sugarbeets
Soybeans Sugarcane
Cotton Fall Potatoes
Rice Peanuts Sorghum Cottonseed
Contents
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
Objective Measurement
Survey Type Field Measurement
Crops Included Oranges, Grapefruit, Tangerines
Sample Size 1,959 groves
Collection Period October 11 – 27
Survey Overview
Florida Citrus
USDA-NASS
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
Production
Oranges Mil Tons 4.16 -4.1 -19.4
Grapefruit Thou Tons 578 -1.7 -15.2
Tangerines &
Mandarins Thou Tons 965 -0.3 -6.6
13.7
9.82 13.0
12.2 12.4 11.5
12.9
9.25 9.02
7.63 10.1
9.13 8.24
8.91 8.98 8.27
6.77
6.35 6.09
5.16 4.16
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Million Tons
Orange Production
United States
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
USDA-NASS
Ag Yield Objective Yield
Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement
Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
Sample Size 8,727 4,952
Collection Period Oct 30 – Nov 6 Oct 25 – Nov 1
Survey Overview
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
Corn
Harvested Mil Ac 83.1 NC -4.2
Yield Bu/Ac 175.4 +2.1 +0.5
Production Bil Bu 14.6 +2.1 -3.8
9.21
9.76 9.43 9.92 9.50 8.97
10.1 11.8
11.1 10.5
13.0 12.0
13.1
12.4 12.3
10.8 13.8
14.2 13.6 15.1
14.6
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Billion Bushels
Corn for Grain Production
United States
USDA-NASS
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
2004
2005 2006 2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015
2016 Aug-17
Sept-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
0.260 0.270 0.280 0.290 0.300 0.310 0.320 0.330 0.340 0.350 0.360 0.370
25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 Lbs/Ear
Ears Per Acre
Corn Objective Yield Region
Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight
Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears
USDA-NASS
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
Year Dent Stage Mature
Percent
2013 < 0.5 86
2014 < 0.5 96
2015 < 0.5 96
2016 < 0.5 96
2017 < 0.5 96
Corn Objective Yield - November
Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
2017 United States Corn Production
Trade Analyst Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Trade Analyst Expectation
USDA-NASS Low
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
Soybeans
Harvested Mil Ac 89.5 NC +8.2
Yield Bu/Ac 49.5 NC -4.8
Production Bil Bu 4.43 -0.1 +3.0
2.69 2.74
2.65 2.76 2.89
2.76 2.45
3.12 3.07 3.20
2.68 2.97
3.36 3.33
3.10 3.04 3.36
3.93 3.93 4.30
4.43
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Billion Bushels
Soybean Production
United States
USDA-NASS
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
2004 2005 2006
2008 2007
2009
2011 2010 2012
2013 2014 2015
2016 Sept -17
Oct-17
Nov-17
0.260 0.265 0.270 0.275 0.280 0.285 0.290 0.295 0.300 0.305 0.310 0.315 0.320 0.325 0.330 0.335 0.340 0.345 0.350
1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 Grams/Pod
Pods Per 18 Square Feet
Soybean Objective Yield Region
Pods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight
Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) /0.0889
USDA-NASS
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
Year Mature
Percent
2013 73
2014 92
2015 95
2016 93
2017 93
Soybean Objective Yield - November
Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
2017 United States Soybean Production Trade Analyst Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Trade Analyst Expectation
USDA-NASSUSDA-NASS 11-9-17
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
All Cotton
Harvested Mil Ac 11.4 NC +20.0
Yield Lb/Ac 900 +1.2 +3.8
Production Mil Bls 21.4 +1.2 +24.5
18.8
13.9
17.0 17.2 20.3
17.2 18.3
23.3 23.9 21.6
19.2
12.8 12.2 18.1
15.6 17.3
12.9 16.3
12.9 17.2
21.4
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Million Bales
All Cotton Production
United States
USDA-NASS
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
USDA-NASS
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
Rice
Harvested Mil Ac 2.39 NC -22.8
Yield Lbs/Ac 7,461 -0.1 +3.1
Production Mil Cwt 178 -0.1 -20.4
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
Peanuts
Harvested Mil Ac 1.83 NC +19.1
Yield Lbs/Ac 4,176 -1.9 +14.9
Production Bil Lbs 7.64 -1.9 +36.9
USDA-NASS
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
Sorghum
Harvested Mil Ac 5.05 NC -18.1
Yield Bu/Ac 70.4 -2.5 -9.6
Production Mil Bu 356 -2.4 -26.0
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Season
Production
Sugarcane Mil Tons 32.2 -0.9 +0.3
Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.0 +0.9 -2.3
USDA-NASS
November 2017 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit November Previous Previous
2017 Forecast Year
Production
Cottonseed Mil Tons 6.76 +1.2 +25.9
Fall Potatoes Mil Cwt 399 NA -1.9
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
Release Date Report Title
November 16 Farm Labor
November 17 Cattle on Feed
November 30 Agricultural Prices
December 1
CAIR: Cotton
CAIR: Oilseed Crushing CAIR: Fats & Oils
December 12 Crop Production
Upcoming Reports
USDA-NASS
USDA-NASS 11-9-17
