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Peace in the Korean peninsula: regional and global levels of effort and impact

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Peace in the Korean peninsula: regional and global

levels of effort and impact

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2 Introduction

The relations between South Korea and North Korea have been showing unpredictable features since the division of Korea in 1945. Recently, after the inauguration of the Moon administration, the South Korean government has established policies intended to cultivate peace in inter-Korean relations, such as the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, which succeeded in bringing about a summit meeting. However, despite the positive prospects that the summit meeting suggested, the peace process in the Korean peninsula has not been fully achieved. Their relations have been further complicated since the outbreak of COVID-19 because of the strict control of borders and economic stagnation.

The international society was largely affected by the recent changes in the South–North relations. This essay will discuss the importance of peace between the South and the North for international society, as well as the Korean peninsula, by exploring current issues and global efforts to overcome them.

Definition of peace

The discussion on the impact of inter-Korean peace requires the definition of peace to be established. In international politics, although the breadth of each theorist’s definition of the concept of peace differs, the definitions show a common understanding of the element needed for peace: the absence of state-based violence. Liberals adopt the Kantian definition of peace, namely peace has to be perpetually established without any possible threats (Tickner, 1995), which can be referred to as peaceful reunification as one nation- state when applied to the situation in the Korean peninsula. Realist views on peace also focus on security in defining peace, arguing that security threats are mostly produced by states and they deter the peace in international politics (Ibid.). In the context of inter- Korean relations, peace can be interpreted as the absence of security threats produced by North Korea. In other words, the elimination of threats produced by North Korea, especially denuclearisation, is a significant factor in establishing peace in the Korean peninsula. Therefore, this essay will adopt the definition of peace in terms of security throughout the discussion.

The security issues in the Korean peninsula

It is over half a century since Korea was divided into North and South Korea because of the ideological divide and power conflicts during the Cold War. The differences between the two states often become a source of conflict or a security threat, including military provocation from the North; however, acknowledging the current issues and differences is an important step in identifying the global efforts to foster peace in Korea.

First, the difference between the domestic political system of the two states is one of the critical factors that hinder further developments in inter-Korean relations. The Korean peninsula is one of the few by-products of the Cold War that are still present today since the two states represent the divide between liberal democracy and autocratic communism.

The fundamental difference in ideology and political structure was seen as incompatible (Hopkins, 2007). According to democratic peace theory, peace between democratic and non-democratic states cannot be guaranteed, implying the incongruous nature of different political systems and the possibilities for conflict (Macmillan, 2004).

Similarly, in the international arena, North Korea is treated as having an illegitimate regime. The nature of the North Korean state system prevents other states from calculating and predicting its next actions, thus creating instability in the region. Most modern states have an established way of processing their decision-making; however, North Korea has no firm strategic guideline in its foreign policies. The inconsistency and opacity in its domestic affairs render the predictions difficult (Tickner, 1995). For instance, despite the historic development in the Kim regime’s effort to improve its external relations, such as the 2018 US–North Korea Summit, North Korea launched

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short-range and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) several times in the following years (Kim et al., 2019). Although the North has been attempting to gain a reputation as a proper state, its obscure behaviour is hindering the normalising of its relations with other states.

The economic difficulties of North Korea can also shape its decision to be hostile against its neighbours. Experts on inter-Korean relations contend that there is a link between the economic downturns and the frequency of aggression in North Korea. Yoo’s (2014) quantitative study clarifies the causal relationship between economic difficulties in North Korea and the frequency of its aggression. He argues that the North Korean regime seeks to divert domestic dissatisfaction through local provocation, including missile launches and nuclear experiments. Another intention of the regime is to pressure the United States (US) and other stakeholders to show its discontent with sanctions from international society. This led scholars to question the effectiveness of economic sanctions as the method of guaranteeing security, believing that these sanctions have a limited impact on its decision-making process (The Economist, 2018). The current situation has become even more difficult under the global pandemic, which has resulted in a serious downturn in North Korea’s economy.

The global efforts for inter-Korean peace

International society has been striving to eliminate security threats in the peninsula, mainly by building relations with North Korea to compel it to initiate the denuclearisation process. Although various actors, including international institutions, are involved in inter-Korean peace, this essay will focus on the efforts of the US, South Korea and China.

The US has been one of the main stakeholders in the Korean peninsula since 1945, especially in the context of the Cold War in Asia (Stueck, 1995). One of the most radical developments in recent years is the American efforts to improve relations with North Korea, including the 2005 Six-Party Talks on multilateral peace and the 2018 Peace Treaty on the Korean Peninsula. The US hopes that there will be ‘complete, verifiable and irreversible’ disarmament of North Korea, and this has been the main topic of peace talks (Kwak, 2004). The US has often shown its willingness to offer an explicit security guarantee and economic growth to North Korea, illustrating that it does not intend to invade North Korea. The Trump administration has reached a breakthrough in US–North Korea relations owing to the weak connection between its policy and ideology (The Economist, 2018). Although no ‘big deal’ between the two states has been made, the two leaders are developing a personal connection, raising hopes for further developments.

Moreover, the South Korean government tried to overcome the discrepancies with the North through various policies to achieve peace. One such policy is the Sunshine policy, which was enforced for a decade starting in 1998, was designed to ‘improve inter-Korean relations by promoting peace, reconciliation and cooperation’ (Paik, 2002, p.14). One main aspect of the Sunshine policy is an attitude of tolerance towards North Korean defectors. In 1999, many new programmes were added to the defector policy, including acceptance of every North Korean who arrives in the South. The liberal attitude the South has shown towards defectors has had a positive impact on inter-Korean relations. South Korean policymakers used the increased number of North Korean defectors to carry out research into North Korea, which helped the government to shape its successful policy towards the North. The Sunshine policy was positive since it fostered peaceful unification by promoting conciliation between the North and the South, achieving the declared goals and gaining additional benefits, including the first inter-Korean summit was held in 2000 (Ibid.). This was an opportunity for South Korea to increase its awareness of the social, cultural and economic differences between it and North Korea.

Finally, China is also one of the important stakeholders in the Northeast Asian security issues involving inter-Korean relations because of its role as the central military partner

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for North Korea and economic partner for South Korea. China is often described as the mediator of inter-Korean relations during the tense times, and the Chinese President Xi has promised to engage closely with the South Korean government in enhancing communications (Kang, 2020). However, the Chinese government often disagreed with the South Korean attempts to promote peace in the peninsula. For instance, the liberal policy towards North Korea was criticised for causing diplomatic problems with other countries, especially China. In one instance in 2004, the South Korean government accepted 460 North Korean defectors in two days (Jung, 2015). Since most North Korean defectors come via third countries such as China, a large group of North Korean defectors could cause a diplomatic dispute with these countries since they regard the defectors as illegal immigrants, compulsorily repatriating them. The international actors play significant roles in the peace-making process, therefore, overcoming the different understandings on North Korea and cooperating can be a key task for the South Korean government to resolve for further developments.

The impact on international politics

The impact and significance of inter-Korean peace are not confined to the Korean peninsula or Northeast Asia, which is why a number of international actors are deeply involved in inter-Korean relations. This can result in important implications for international relations in three different aspects: security, diplomacy, and economy. First, the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in North Korea can open up new dimensions in world politics, such as new strategic balances and security policies. On a regional level, the denuclearisation of North Korea can greatly alter the strategic balance of Northeast Asia since its neighbouring countries, including South Korea, China and Japan, will be free from ballistic missile threats (Bechtol, 2014). The denuclearisation process can reduce the existing uncertainties and increase the stability, which can minimise the activities of US Forces Korea in exchange for increased stability in the region, reducing one of the main security threats for North Korea (Mibae and Schoff, 2019). On a global level, North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons can have a wider implication for other states with their denuclearisation process, such as Iran, in establishing a firmer ‘nuclear taboo’, i.e. a normative inhibition impeding states from using nuclear weapons (Landau, 2012).

Although peace is mainly defined in terms of security, it can have wider impacts on international society, including diplomatic consequences. Regarding the diplomatic consequences of inter-Korean peace, North Korea and the US share the largest common win-set. For the US, it can be a great opportunity to demonstrate its bargaining power to the world, especially during the period of contestations and challenges from rising powers, if it succeeds in denuclearising North Korea. Therefore, the Trump administration has expressed its interests for Korean peace and illustrated the American bargaining power as part of its political project to make the US the world hegemon again (Taylor, 2019). In 2018, the Trump administration used the Peace Treaty on the Korean Peninsula as a diplomatic tool to apply pressure and facilitate North Korean denuclearisation with support from China (Ibid.). Furthermore, denuclearisation is a key element for North Korea to normalise its diplomatic relations with its current ‘enemies’. North Korea can gain a reputation as a legitimate state in international society with the American recognition of its regime and alleviation of the sanctions on North Korea. For instance, the US offered to remove North Korea from the list of states sponsoring terrorism (Landau, 2012). Thus, inter-Korean peace can introduce a new legitimate player to the international arena of politics.

Finally, inter-Korean peace can have a significant effect on the international economy.

The causal relationship between peace and economic growth has been discussed frequently, and several scholars argue that peace is an essential prerequisite for economic

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prosperity. Peace has a positive impact on the accumulation of physical and human capital, which are important determinants for economic growth (Santhirasegaram, 2008).

Stability and elimination of security threats can bring enormous benefit to the Korean peninsula since political and military security can help to attract more investors, enhance trade and reduce defence expenditure. This argument on the causation between peace and security can be supported by the empirical evidence of Germany’s growth after its reunification and European integration, which also benefitted its neighbours significantly by creating a coalition (Ivanovitch, 2018). On a global scale, the economic growth of Korea and its neighbours can have a huge impact in the increasingly interconnected world, as it accounts for approximately 7% of the world Gross Domestic Product and has the second highest intra-regional trade rate (Statistica, 2020).

Conclusion

In conclusion, this essay has discussed the current difficulties caused by the division between South and North Korea and the international society’s effort to overcome them to clarify the global impact of peace in the Korean peninsula. Since their division, the South and North have experienced inconsistencies in their politics and economy, which have hindered the peace processes between them. This essay has also explored and evaluated the efforts of international society to achieve peace in Korea. The main stakeholders in handling the security threats produced by North Korea can be identified as South Korea, the US and China. Although they have some disagreements in terms of the approaches, they are cooperating to achieve the common goal – the absence of a security threat in the Korean peninsula. As their efforts illustrate the importance of peace in the peninsula, peaceful inter-Korean relations can have a significant impact on regional and global security, diplomacy and economy. In the long term, successful management of inter-Korean relations can build a foundation for peaceful unification and have a significant effect on the international political affairs.

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6 References

Bechtol, B. E. (2014), North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma, Palgrave Macmillan, London.

Ivanovitch, M. (2018), “A Korean peace would cut billions of dollars from US trade deficits”, CNBC, [online] March 13. Available at: < https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/a-korean-peace-would-cut- billions-of-dollars-from-us-trade-deficits.html > [Accessed 11October 2020].

Jung, J. (2015), Migration and Religion in East Asia, Palgrave Macmillan, London.

Kang, S. (2020), “Can China emerge as inter-Korean mediator?”, The Korea Times, [online] May 18.

Available at: <https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/05/103_289656.html > [Accessed 11 October 2020].

Kim, J. (2004), “A large number of North Korean defectors coming to South Korea: A burden to inter- Korean relations”, KBS, [online] July 29. Available at: <

http://mn.kbs.co.kr/news/view.do?ncd=619978 > [Accessed 5 October 2020].

Kim, J., Kang, C. and Ko, Y. (2019), South Korean Perceptions of the Denuclearization of North Korea, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Seoul.

Landau, E. (2012), Decade of Diplomacy, The Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv.

Lee, B. (2014), “A duality in North Korean defectors’ value orientations and differentiation of identity”, The Journal of the Humanities for Unification, Vol. 59, No. 9, pp. 121–150.

Macmillan, J. (2004), “Liberalism and the democratic peace”, Review of International Studies, Vol. 30, No.

2, pp. 179–200.

Mibae, T. and Schoff, J. (2019), Diplomacy Surrounding the Korean Peninsula and the Future of US Forces in Northeast Asia, Atlantic Council, Washington DC.

Ministry of Unification. (2016), Policy on North Korean defectors, Ministry of Unification, [online]

Available at: < https://www.unikorea.go.kr/eng_unikorea/relations/statistics/defectors/ > [Accessed 5 October 2020].

Paik, H. (2002), “Assessment of the Sunshine policy: A Korean perspective”, Asian Perspective, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 13–35.

Santhirasegaram, S. (2008), “Peace and economic growth in developing countries: Pooled data cross- country empirical study”, International Conference on Applied Economics, Vol. 1, pp. 807–814.

Statistica (2020), “Global gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices from 2009 to 2021”, Statistica, [online] Available at: < https://www.statista.com/statistics/268750/global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

> [Accessed 11 October 2020].

Stueck, W. (1995), The Korean War: An International History, Princeton University Press, Princeton.

Taylor, A. (2019), “A new push to end the Korean War? North Korean visit raises hopes”, Washington Post, [online] Jan 18. Available at: < https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/08/15/why-korean- war-didnt-end-why-it-could-now/ > [Accessed 11 October 2020].

Tickner, J, A. (1995), “Re-visioning security”, in Booth, K. and Smith, S. (Eds.), International Relations Theory Today, Polity Press, Cambridge, pp. 175–197.

Yoo, S. (2014), “The trend of North Korean local military provocations and alliance cooperation”, National Defence Research, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 61–80.

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