ASEAN Economic Update (Annex)
2017. 08. 16 주아세안 대표부
[주요 이슈 분석]
[ERIA Key Reports] ASEAN@50 Volume2, Voices of ASEAN: What does ASEAN mean to ASEAN people?
- http://www.eria.org/publications/key_reports/asean50-vol.2.html
[주요 기관 동향 정보]
1. [주아세안 대한민국 대표부] '제2차 한-아세안 협력 메커니즘 워크숍' 개최
- http://asean.mofa.go.kr/korean/as/asean/news/announcements/index.jsp
2. [기획재정부] 17년 제6차 韓-AMRO 연례협의: 한국 경제, 수출 회복과 강 력한 정부 정책 등으로 성장세 지속할 전망
- http://www.mosf.go.kr/nw/nes/detailNesDtaView.do?searchBbsId1=MOSFBBS_000000 000028&searchNttId1=MOSF_000000000010425&menuNo=4010100
3. [한아세안센터] 한-아세안센터, 서울서 ‘메콩강 유역 국가 대상 전자상거 래 워크숍(8.22-24)’ 개최
- http://www.aseankorea.org/kor/New_Media/press_view.asp?boa_num=11887&boa_gu bun=10&pageReturn=press&boa_cnt=942
4. [한아세안센터] 한아세안 관계조망회의 개최
- http://www.aseankorea.org/kor/New_Media/press_view.asp?boa_num=11916&boa_gu bun=10&pageReturn=press&boa_cnt=407
5. [OECD] OECD 동남아 지역 포럼 개최
- http://www.oecd.org/southeast-asia/events/regional-forum/
[주요 언론 동향]
1. [아세안 50년, 변방에서 중심으로] “한국은 그들이 닮고 싶은 나라… 우 리 기업엔 신성장 활로” (08.14. 한국일보)
서정인 주아세안 대표부 대사 인터뷰
서정인 주아세안대표부 대사는 한국과 아세안에 대해 ‘멀리 떨어져 있었기에 앞으로 더 가까워질 수 있는 사이’로 규정했다.
인접한 중국이나 일본과 달리 지리적으로 떨어져 있었던 덕분에 “복잡한 과 거사 문제도 없고 다툴 영토문제도 없어 기본적으로 우호를 꾀하기 유리한 조건”이라는 것이다.
세계 각국은 외교무대의 주역으로 부상한 아세안을 끌어안기 위해 경쟁하고 있는 상황. 서 대사는 “한국은 과거 그들과 비슷한 처지의 나라였지만 지금 은 그들이 부러워하는, 가장 닮고 싶어 하는 나라가 됐다”며 “우리가 어떻게 그들을 대하느냐에 따라 앞으로의 관계는 결정될 것”이라고 말했다. 아세안 의 마음을 얻는데 한국이 가진 입지를 십분 활용할 필요가 있다는 뜻이다.
양측 교류는 이미 광범하게 이뤄지고 있다는 게 서 대사의 진단이다. 그는
“아세안은 지난해 한국인 600만명이 찾은 1대 방문지이자 8,000개의 한국 기업이 진출해 있는 곳”이라며 “경제, 사회적으로 왕성한 교류를 하고 있는 만큼 상생의 정신으로 관계를 이어 간다면 지속 가능한 공동번영의 토대를 마련할 수 있을 것”이라고 내다봤다. 아세안의 많은 나라가 식민지 경험이 있고, 이로 인해 강대국들 사이에서 어떤 편에 서는 데 대한 두려움이 있는 만큼 한국이 이들에게 좋은 선택지가 될 수 있다는 의미다. 2015년 4월 인 도네시아 자카르타 임지로 부임한 서 대사는 한국 외교의 주요 축으로 부상 한 아세안과의 외교 최전선에서 뛰고 있다.
아세안이 닮고 싶어하는 한국이지만, 아세안은 한국에도 기회다. 그는 “아세 안은 연평균 5%이상씩 성장하는 인구 6억3,500만의 땅”이라며 “소득 증가 에 맞춰 도시화도 빠른 속도록 진행되고 있는 만큼 이 과정에서 많은 한국
기업이 기회를 찾을 수 있을 것”이라고 말했다. 성장하고 있는 아세안이 한 국 경제의 신성장 활로가 될 수 있는 만큼, 보다 관심을 갖고 들여다봐야 한 다는 얘기다.
2. Thai firms target Asean for growth (08.15 The Nation)
THAI companies expanded their direct investment in Asean countries in the first quarter of this year, with outflows rising 3.67 per cent to US$30.19 billion from the previous quarter, Bank of Thailand figures show.
Singapore was the most popular destination for Thai investments in the quarter, followed by Vietnam and Myanmar.
“We increase our investment in Asean when we see opportunities to expand our business, especially in the CLMV countries,” Ch Karnchang Plc president Supamas Trivisvavet said, referring to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Ch Kranchang has invested in a hydropower electricity plant in Laos and has also expanded its business in Myanmar.
Supamas said that the company, when expanding its investment in overseas markets, especially in Asean countries, has to learn about the target country’s legal system. Time and money must also be spent on feasibility studies, gaining an understanding of local communities’ needs and the most effective way to conduct negotiations, she said.
All this was required, she said, because most lenders that consider providing loans for investment projects always ask the same question:
how will you manage the business risks?
“When we expand our investments overseas it has not always been
easy,” Supamas said. “But is a challenge for our us to complete all the necessary preparatory work in order to manage the business risk before we make any final investment decision.”
Siam Cement Group (SCG) is another leading Thai conglomerate that has expanded its investment in the Asean region since the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997.
SCG president and chief executive officer Roongrote Rangsiyapash said the group had expanded its investments in the region by focusing on three businesses: construction raw materials, packaging, and petrochemical.
“We see business opportunities to expand our investments in the region when Asean shows stronger economic growth compared with other regions,” he said.
SCG has announced its latest investment in the region; it is pouring Bt188 billion into a petrochemical project in Vietnam through a joint venture with a Vietnamese partner.
Thai Beverage Plc, owned by tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, has also been on the expansion path in Asean, taking over Singapore-based F&N.
The group has announced a business strategy up to 2020 that will see the group increase its investment in Asean countries in a focus on the food and beverage business.
Thai Beverage president and chief executive officer Thapana Sirivadhanabhakdi said the group was drawn to Asean because of the size of the market and its scope for business expansion.
According to a survey by the Stock Exchange of Thailand, listed
companies made direct investments overseas of Bt185.11 billion in 2016, a jump of 146.25 per cent from the Bt75.17 billion recorded at the end of 2015.
Listed companies engaged in agriculture and food processing led the way, logging Bt68 billion in overseas investments at the end of 2016.
Some 31 per cent of these investment flows went to the United States, with 28 per cent to Asean countries and 13 per cent to Europe, the SET’s survey found. The survey also found that 198 listed companies had expanded their investment overseas, with 64 of these companies putting money into Myanmar.
3. China Is Increasing Its Share of Southeast Asia's Infrastructure Pie(08.18 Bloomberg)
China has Southeast Asia in its sights.
Companies from the world’s second-biggest economy are increasingly targeting the region for investment, especially into infrastructure. That’s a potential boon for developing economies, which need a massive upgrade of roads, rail, and ports if they are to meet their economic potential. It also comes amid a wider crackdown by regulators in Beijing on outbound investment.
The Asian Development Bank estimates that emerging economies across Asia will need to invest as much as $26 trillion on building everything from transport networks to clean water through 2030 to maintain growth, eradicate poverty, and offset climate change.
That’s where China comes in. Although the share of Chinese foreign direct investment into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations remains relatively small at 6.8 percent of total net inflows in 2015, Chinese corporations are taking up larger stakes in major infrastructure
projects across the region, according to Weiwen Ng, economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore.
China accounted for 14 percent of net FDI inflows into Thailand last year, 8 percent in Vietnam and Indonesia, and 6 percent in Malaysia, according to ANZ. The Philippines received a marginal share of 0.14 percent.
By sector, the bulk of Chinese investments has gone into energy, transport, and real estate, ANZ noted. The three sectors accounted for 78 percent of China’s cumulative investment and construction contracts in Asean from 2005 to the first half of 2017.
For China, the opportunities are significant. The 10 Asean members boast some of the world’s fastest-expanding economies, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, with growth rates of more than 6 percent.
With a combined population of more than 620 million and an economy of $2.6 trillion in the region, the investment potential is huge. By 2020, the region will have the world’s fifth-largest economy, the World Economic Forum predicts.
China’s mammoth Belt & Road Initiative will also further enhance its footprint in the region. Projects that may receive funding include a new high-speed rail line that runs from southern China through Laos to Thailand’s industrial east coast, along with rail projects in Laos, Indonesia, and Thailand.
Still, the investment isn’t without risk.
“While the host countries stand to benefit from increased investment from China, it further increases the concentration risk given that ASEAN is already heavily exposed to China via trade and tourism flows,” Ng wrote in a note.
4. [아세안 50년, 변방에서 중심으로] “경쟁력 있는 소비재 기업들 아세안으로 나가야”(08.21. 한국일보)
“국내 소비재 기업들이 보다 적극적으로 동남아로 진출해야 합니다.”
동남아시아국가연합(ASEANㆍ아세안) 통합연구 등 아세안 경제 전문가인 박번 순(59) 고려대 경제통계학부 교수는 21일 전화통화에서 아세안이 경제 성장에 맞춰 더 크게 열어 젖힐 지갑 덕을 보려면 시장이 더 팽창하기 전에 자리를 잡아야 한다고 힘주어 말했다. 그는 “국내 많은 기업들이 충분한 글로벌 경쟁 력을 갖추고도 국내에 안주하는 경향이 있다”며 “실기(失期)할 경우 자동차 산업의 전철을 밟을 가능성이 높다”고 지적했다.
국내 제조업의 핵심산업인 자동차산업은 아세안 시장을 소홀히 대하면서, 일 본에 완전히 주도권을 내준 상황. 베트남의 경우 과거 대우자동차 등이 일본 보다 앞서 진출했지만, 지금은 일본 업체의 그늘을 벗어나지 못하고 있다. 박 교수는 “현재 상태에서 베트남 경제가 발전한다면 베트남 시장에서 현대차와 도요타의 격차는 더욱 벌어질 수밖에 없다”고 예상했다.
국내 시장에서 안주하고 있는 또다른 사례는 맥주다. 그는 태국이 인수한 타 이거 맥주를 예로 들며 “태국이 싱가포르 기업을 인수해 시장을 넓히고 있는 데 우리도 못할 이유가 없다”면서 국내기업들이 보다 적극적으로 ‘기업가 정 신’을 발휘해 줄 것을 주문했다. 국내 시장에서 맥주는 국내 기업간 치열한 경쟁은 물론, 독일ㆍ일본 등 외국산 맥주의 연이은 상륙으로 입지는 더욱 좁 아진 상황이다. 빅마켓으로 성장하고 있는 아세안 진출이 활로가 될 수 있다 는 제안이다.
박 교수는 기업들의 아세안 진출 방안으로 인수합병(M&A)을 적극 고려해 볼 것을 제안했다. 그는 “베트남 같은 신규 시장은 새로 공장을 새로 지어도 되 지만 어느 정도 성장한 태국이나 인도네시아에서는 바닥부터 새로 시작하기에 는 늦은 감이 있다”면서 “M&A를 통한 진출도 좋은 방법이 될 것”이라고 말 했다. 현지 소비 시장을 공략하기 위해서는 수출보다는 현지화가 답일 수 있 는 만큼 현지에 각종 인프라를 구축하고 있는 현지 기업을 흡수, 국내의 기술 과 노하우를 더할 경우 경쟁력 확보가 용이하다는 것이다.
5. ASEAN should benefit from Industry 4.0 (08.28. The Jakarta Post)
From artificial intelligence and robots, to big data and clean energy, disruptive technologies are rapidly redefining our daily lives, our businesses and economies. And in our interconnected world, these deepening impacts of "Industry 4.0" should compel countries to prepare for changes.
ASEAN countries are advised to focus, in particular, on new technologies related to the digital economy. However, to do so successfully requires overcoming a few key challenges: Ensuring that necessary regulation and
public infrastructure is in place, developing human resources and intensifying cooperation.
Industry 4.0 promises a revolutionary new paradigm for economic production that employs cyber-physical production systems, including online networks of sensors, machines, work pieces and information technology systems that span entire value chains. These sophisticated new systems boost productivity and lead to levels of efficiency that were not imaginable just a couple of years ago.
But these benefits also come at a cost in the form of potential labor market disruption.
These changes are transforming Asia, at least as much as anywhere else. China's e-commerce leads worldwide and India now has Bangalore as its own Silicon Valley. To survive the global competition, ASEAN countries should prepare an adaptive digital economy ecosystem as the foundation to participate in Industry 4.0.
The increasing levels of internet penetration in ASEAN nations provides a strong basis for this participation. According to a Google-Temasek survey, by 2016, 260 million individuals in the ASEAN region had regular access to the internet. This is projected to increase to 480 million by 2020.
With the average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate standing at 4.9 percent in 2016, ASEAN has one of the highest regional rates in the world. Of the region's population of more than 600 million people, more than 65 percent are of productive age, with a rapidly expanding middle class.
These factors have driven a massive increase in demand for online media, travel and e-commerce services. In 2015, the value of these services in the region stood at US$31 billion. This is expected to grow
by a factor of 6.5 by 2025.
However, despite this potential, many significant challenges remain, primarily related to government regulation, public infrastructure and human resource development. To address these challenges, the governments of ASEAN nations must individually and collectively develop appropriate legal frameworks. These must prevent the emergence of monopolies resulting from the "winner-takes-most" nature of the digital economy.
The regulations should also protect consumers against fraud, invasion of privacy and intellectual property infringements, among other matters.
These issues have already created significant tensions. For example, traditional transportation services in the region, such as taxi companies, have felt threatened by what they see as unfair competition from new ride sharing services such as Uber, Grab and Go-Jek. Learning from these conflicts, governments, together with relevant stakeholders, should strive to ensure that regulations keep the pace with technological developments.
Governments should also play a role by developing the Information Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructures essential for participation in the new paradigm. At present, according to the Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017, there is wide variation in the quality of infrastructure available to people in different ASEAN countries corresponding to each nations' different levels of economic development.
In less developed nations, governments often regard ICT connectivity as tertiary infrastructure, with greater priority being given to the development of primary infrastructure, including roads, basic electricity, clean water and agricultural irrigation facilities.
However, governments could utilize Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) to
enable the development of ICT infrastructure without diverting public resources from essential primary infrastructure. For example, Malaysia established a PPP to develop a nationwide high-speed broadband network, while Singapore established one to provide free public Wi-Fi.
Thailand utilized a Build-Transfer-Operate model of PPP for a fixed line telephone service expansion, using concession fees to share revenue with a private company.
The ASEAN PPP Models for ICT forms an integral part of the ASEAN ICT Masterplan (AIM) 2015 and can serve as a reference for other ASEAN member states.
The other challenges are related to limited human resources. To address this, governments could encourage private sector participation by supporting domestic digital industries through the provision of public co-working spaces, improved higher education, training, competitions and boot camps. Fiscal incentives could be implemented selectively, but governments could also promote digital start-ups through loans and financial facilities through banks, angel investors, venture capital, peer-to-peer and crowd funding systems.
While technical skills are extremely important to enable the development of digital societies, widespread internet literacy is equally important for its uptake. Governments could implement e-government services to introduce people to the internet, while internet education should be provided for micro-businesses to benefit from access to information and new markets.
These efforts can be optimized by cooperation. Earlier initiatives, such as the ASEAN ICT Masterplan (AIM) 2015, were formulated to foster this cooperation and to develop the digital economy throughout the region by defining general principles.
The current AIM 2020 focuses more on implementation issues, including
the adoption of sustainable, environmentally friendly ICT systems, the development of smart cities, ICT investment facilitation, open data systems, cyber security and cloud computing platforms.
It is important to note that Singapore has expressed its commitment to emphasize the digital economy under its chairmanship in 2018.
Through regional integration, ASEAN nations will be able to share experiences and learn from each other to address the challenges that currently constrain development. Global connectivity accelerates the spread of information and knowledge, thus increasing the feasibility of technological adoption.
If the region can further focus on supporting the ecosystem for a digital economy, and at the same time attract talent via regional cooperation, ASEAN nations are on track to fully benefit from Industry 4.0.
The writer is a research associate at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (eria.org). The views expressed are his own
