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ASEAN Economic Update (Annex)

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ASEAN Economic Update (Annex)

2017. 05. 16 주아세안 대표부

[주요 언론 동향 원문]

1. Commentary: Is ASEAN's economic integration still a work in progress? / (05.04) Channel News Asia

-Andrew Delios, 싱가포르 National University of Singapore (NUS) 교수

ASEAN is a success in many ways. Since the regional bloc was founded 50 years ago, the number of member nations has doubled. The region has also long been peaceful and prosperous, thanks to the absence of inter-regional conflicts and impressive economic growth.

Since 1993, total trade by ASEAN countries grew more than six times to US$$2.5 trillion from US$400 billion.

Poverty has declined in the ten-member ASEAN countries. Fewer of the region’s 600 million people live in poverty or have low incomes. Gradually, but assuredly, each country is seeing its people transition from poor to low-income and to middle-income levels.

Countries such as Singapore are among the world’s wealthiest. Others such as Vietnam are the fastest-growing, while Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia are firmly planted as robust middle-income economies.

ASEAN leaders established the ASEAN Vision 2020 to create a prosperous and peaceful region. An important part of this vision was to heighten economic growth, deepen intra-regional trade ties and allow the free movement of people, goods, services and investment capital in a common market, within ASEAN.

But ASEAN has not achieved such a vision to date.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND INTRA-ASEAN TRADE TIES REMAIN WEAK

Today, intra-ASEAN trade ties remain weak. With the exception of Laos, ASEAN countries' trade with economies outside of ASEAN still outpaces intra-ASEAN trade by a factor of three. By comparison, intra-NAFTA (North American Free Trade

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Agreement) trade surpassed extra-NAFTA trade levels in just five years after NAFTA’s implementation.

Even the region’s most open economy, Singapore, derives just a quarter of its trade with other ASEAN states. Vietnam has rapidly become immersed in international markets. But only 13 per cent of ASEAN’s trade is intra-ASEAN trade. One of the stated policy goals of the ASEAN is to improve intra-ASEAN trade ties, but this has not happened.

Trade within ASEAN has not been as attractive to each ASEAN country compared to external trade. In a way, this means that economic connections between ASEAN countries have not deepened. Such connections provide stimuli to improve the international competitiveness of their companies.

Low levels of trade mean that ASEAN countries rely more strongly for developing growth on economic giants such as the US and China, than on ASEAN countries.

There is much room for market forces to lead to greater intra-ASEAN trade ties, provided ASEAN policy makers do their job and reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers.

The conventional wisdom that ASEAN countries are in different stages of development and require protection within ASEAN is wrong. Low-income and high-income countries can and do benefit from trade with each other. Firms and countries always compete with each other. But competition is not a bad thing. Competition is the breeding ground for economic growth.

That ASEAN has not deepened intra-regional trade ties means that opportunities have been lost.

MEANWHILE CHINA’S GROWTH POSES AN ECONOMIC CHALLENGE

China burst onto the world’s economic stage in the 1990s. Very quickly, China became the business world’s new darling where international trade blossomed and foreign direct investment grew at staggering rates. China established vast production networks that rightfully could have been built in ASEAN, had the world’s investment community seen the ASEAN as a single economic entity.

While China’s economic growth has led to wage growth, creating higher costs of domestic production, new opportunities have arisen to re-capture those industries that migrated wholesale to China. Regional production networks can and will shift out of eastern China. But will they shift to China’s interior, to India or to ASEAN countries?

An open, competitive and integrated ASEAN stands a great chance of attracting new industries.

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But for this happen, steps must be taken to achieve the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) - the long-awaited initiative to integrate the region’s diverse economies into a single market. A single market balances opportunities and power. ASEAN as a single market is a much more formidable economic entity whose policies matter more internally and more in external negotiations with other large economic units such as China and the European Union.

Yet there seems to be little sign of action in the most recent round of talks. Instead, talks centred on indefinite and ambiguous promises of integration and cooperation.

Press releases seem to focus significantly on security issues, especially topical ones such as the risks of North Korean aggression, collective responses to expansionist behaviours in the South China Sea, and re-assertions of national policy independence. That regional security issues dominate the agenda is expected.

But it is unfortunate because it leaves unanswered questions on how ASEAN’s economic integration is coming along. ASEAN’s leaders have called for economic integration many times, but concrete action to show progress has not followed.

Progress will boost investors’ confidence and attract more businesses to the region.

But this has not happened.

So what can ASEAN do? Some people say it might be more encouraging if talks yielded one of two outcomes.

OUTCOME 1: FOCUS ON OTHER AREAS OF COOPERATION

ASEAN leaders’ rhetoric about the creation of the AEC is impressive. The reality is less so.

ASEAN leaders often claim success for the bloc because member states are growing well but the region is not living up to its true potential.

The policies and policy makers in ASEAN are satisficing. They have not been acting to maximise opportunities for growth in terms of furthering economic trade and linkages with each other.

The reality for most ASEAN countries is that economic growth comes from bilateral FTAs, extra-ASEAN investment and domestic policy initiatives. This may be a result of the lack of economic integration, but it might also be the reason why economic integration within ASEAN has appeared lacklustre. External trading partners know the reality that ASEAN is not a common market, making it easier for countries such as the US to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and far less likely for any discussions on a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to be realised.

Instead, policy makers should acknowledge that the AEC is primarily a forum for stabilising relations between member states. They should concede that the AEC unites

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member states on a political front when faced with challenges from large regional rivals such as China or India. They should reassert that the AEC encourages peace and mutual understanding across countries with pronounced societal and cultural differences.

If ASEAN doesn't drop this pretence that there has been progress towards an AEC, then policy makers must really start work on making the AEC a reality.

This begins with outcome 2.

OUTCOME 2: ESTABLISH CLEAR GOALS AND SIGNPOSTS TO GUIDE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

Nobody expects the AEC to emerge overnight. But nobody expects the AEC to emerge if ASEAN meetings conclude primarily with vision statements and general guidelines for development.

Instead, if the AEC is to lead to regional economic integration and be the precursor to the RCEP that it must be, then policy makers must guide and measure integration with tangible metrics. Individual politicians can dance around rhetoric. But once clear goals and signposts are established, countries and indeed ASEAN as a group will have to act as they said they will act.

ASEAN leaders need to establish clear metrics to measure the overall health of ASEAN’s economic integration and external trade and investments. Definitive steps must be taken to facilitate trade and eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.

Cross-border investment must be liberalised. National champions must be exposed to more competition. Small- and medium-sized enterprises must venture beyond their own borders. Infrastructure must be improved to better intra-ASEAN logistics.

These are high-brow expectations but if ASEAN aims high and is willing to work towards such goals, progress on economic integration can be forthcoming.

When subsequent rounds of talks occur, leaders can evaluate whether the formation of the AEC is on track. Instead of releasing statements on very broad economic aggregates, leaders can refer to these specific measurable items to defend statements of ASEAN successes.

The twice annual ASEAN leaders’ summits are expensive. Massive amounts of manpower need to be mobilised for coordination and security. Legions of aides need to plan the summit and travel to it. The precious and irreplaceable time of leaders is consumed by these summits.

Given these costs and given the hopes embedded in the summits, the people of ASEAN can reasonably expect more from the talks. If ASEAN is serious in pursuing

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regional integration, then it’s time to get down to the nuts and bolts to make it happen.

2. Aso announces ¥4 trillion ASEAN currency scheme / (05.06) The Japan News

The government announced Friday a plan to establish a currency swap scheme to offer funds of up to ¥4 trillion to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in a bid to provide greater financial cooperation to the regional bloc.

The move is aimed at strengthening the economic relationship between Japan and ASEAN, thereby enhancing the presence of the Asian Development Bank, an international financial institution led by Japan and the United States. It is also aimed at differentiating the ADB from the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Japan’s plan was announced by Finance Minister Taro Aso during a meeting of financial chiefs and central bank governors from ASEAN, Japan, China and South Korea that was held in Yokohama on Friday.

Under the scheme, when a country faces a shortage in foreign currency reserves due to a financial crisis, Japan will provide yen or dollars — highly creditworthy currencies

— in exchange for that country’s currency.

Separately, Japan signed a new bilateral currency swap deal with Thailand, a core ASEAN member. Japan also reached a basic agreement with Malaysia to conclude a similar deal.

Japan has been actively promoting financial cooperation with ASEAN because it believes doing so is essential for winning support from the 10 ASEAN member countries, which have increasing influence in Asia, to enable the ADB to continue its infrastructure development initiatives in the region.

During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Japan and the ADB worked in tandem to help affected countries secure the dollars they needed. For ASEAN member countries, Japan and the ADB are perceived as one unit.

“We can contribute to further development in Asian countries by appropriately combining the financial and knowledge resources of Japan’s public and private sectors, as well as the ADB,” Aso said in a seminar related to the ADB’s general meeting.

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To clearly differentiate itself from the AIIB, which also extends loans to infrastructure projects, the ADB has clarified its policy of placing importance on quality in infrastructure projects when offering loans, such as low operation costs and environmental friendliness. The ADB also plans to provide support in fields the AIIB does not, such as preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

However, it remains to be seen whether such a strategy will prove effective.

Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati told The Yomiuri Shimbun that the AIIB creates pressure for the ADB to carry out reforms. Her remarks indicate Indonesia’s intention to receive funds under more favorable conditions by pitting the two banks against each other.

It is also indispensable that Japan and the United States closely communicate with each other to maintain the ADB’s presence in Asia in the future. Among the Group of Seven leading industrial countries, Japan and the United States are the only ones that are not members of the AIIB. This is because the China-led bank is unclear about its terms of operation. Japan and the United States are in step on the importance of the ADB.

However, there is concern within the Japanese government. “If China cooperates with the United States over the North Korea situation, [the United States] may become positive toward participating in the AIIB,” a government official said.

3. 아세안+한중일 "성장 위해 통화·재정정책과 구조개혁 중요"(종합) / 05.08 연합뉴스

한국, 중국, 일본과 동남아시아국가연합(아세안·ASEAN) 국가들은 5일 포용적 경제성장을 위해 통화정책과 재정정책, 구조개혁이 중요하다는 데 뜻을 모았다.

이들 국가는 이날 일본 요코하마에서 제20차 '아세안+3(한중일)' 재무장관·중앙은행 총재회의를 열고 이런 내용의 공동선언문을 채택했다.

회의에는 우리나라 대표로 유일호 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관과 이주열 한국은행 총재가 참석했다. 아세안 회원국은 말레이시아, 인도네시아, 태국, 필리핀, 싱가포르, 브루나이, 베트남, 라오스, 미얀마, 캄보디아 등 10개국이다.

참가국들은 선언문에서 "우리는 금융시장 활성화와 오랫동안 기다려온 제조업 및 무역의 경기순환에 따른 회복국면으로 글로벌 경제의 성장세가 높아질 것으로 기대한다"고 밝혔다.

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그러나 "글로벌 경제 환경을 둘러싼 불확실성으로 중장기적 하방 위험이 상존한다"며 불확실성 요인으로 보호무역주의 등 고립주의 정책, 예상보다 빠른 미국의 금리 인상 속도, 신흥국가들의 금융 압박을 꼽았다.

선언문은 또 "지속적이고 균형 잡힌 포용적 경제성장을 하고 경제 및 금융시장의 회복력을

강화하기 위해 통화정책, 재정정책, 구조개혁 등 필요한 모든 정책수단을

개별적·집단적으로 사용하는 것이 중요하다"고 지적했다. 이어 "균형성장과 금융안정을 달성하기 위해 적절한 정책수단의 조합을 계속할 것"이라며 "정책의 불확실성과 부정적 파급효과를 최소화하고 투명성을 제고하기 위하여 거시건전성 조치 등 거시경제 및 구조개혁 정책을 신중하게 조정하고 명확하게 전달할 것"이라고 강조했다.

이번 회의에서는 국제금융시장의 변동성에 대한 우려도 논의됐다. 선언문은 참가국들이 자본이동에 대한 점검을 강화하고 과도한 자본이동의 변동성에 따른 위험관리를 강화하는 것이 중요하다는 데 인식을 함께 했다고 밝혔다.

아울러 참가국들은 역내 금융 안전망인 '치앙마이 이니셔티브 다자화'(CMIM)를 더욱 강화하기로 의견을 모았고 앞으로 국제통화기금(IMF) 비연계비중의 상향 논의에 진전이 있기를 기대했다. 또 역내 거시경제조사기구(AMRO)의 역량 강화를 지속해서 지원하기로 했다.

내년도 ASEAN+3 재무장관·중앙은행총재 회의와 한·중·일 재무장관·중앙은행총재 회의는 필리핀 마닐라에서 열린다.

4. Asean ministers propose reciprocity to speed up RCEP / (05.09) The Manila Times

ECONOMIC ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have suggested reciprocity to speed up negotiations on the proposed Regional

Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) deal, Trade Secretary and Asean Economic Ministers Meeting (AEM) Chair Ramon Lopez said on Monday.

“We are now suggesting reciprocity for Asean members who are not ready to give, for instance, the 90 percent of products for inclusion in liberalization, maybe a lower number. And because of that, the RCEP is not moving.

So, for the meantime, we will separate them and give them time to be ready,” Lopez said during the 18th RCEP Trade Negotiating Committee (TNC) Meeting and Related Meetings.

Reciprocity is a mutual exchange of privileges; specifically a recognition by one of two countries or institutions of the validity of licenses or privileges granted by the other.

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“RCEP should be able to demonstrate that we continue to underscore the

developmental function of international trade that benefits ultimately the broader base of the economy,” Lopez added.

To keep the momentum going, the overall RCEP package should suit the developmental needs of the RCEP parties, he said.

“For the Philippines, RCEP should translate to more jobs and more business opportunities leading to higher incomes for many Filipinos,” Lopez added.

The bid to move RCEP forward requires political willingness, especially at the moment when return to economic protectionism is being considered in some parts of the world, the DTI chief said.

5. "젊은 아세안, 경제 황금기 맞을 것" / (05.10) 매경

저스틴 우드 다보스 亞 책임자, "아세안(ASEAN) 지역은 앞으로 경제 발전의 황금기를 겪을 것이다."

저스틴 우드 세계경제포럼(WEF·다보스포럼) 아시아·태평양 지역 총괄 책임자는 10일 매일경제와 인터뷰하며 아세안(동남아시아국가연합) 지역의 무한한 잠재력을 주목해야 한다고 강조했다.

그는 '젊음, 기술, 성장'을 캐치프레이즈로 내걸고 10~12일 캄보디아 프놈펜에서 개최되는 아세안 다보스포럼을 총괄 기획했다.

우드는 "아세안의 6억3000만 인구 중 50% 이상이 30세 이하"라며 "인구가 젊다는 것은 앞으로 아세안이 고도 성장의 황금기를 겪을 것임을 약속하는 것"이라고 강조했다.

그는 이어 "일할 수 있는 인구가 점점 늘어가면서 이 지역의 소비, 저축, 투자는 계속 증가하고 이는 경제의 선순환 구조를 만들 것"이라고 전망했다.

우드는 또 인공지능과 디지털화로 인해 전방위로 진행되고 있는 4차 산업혁명이 아세안 경제에 새로운 성장 모멘텀을 제공할 것이라고 예상했다.

그는 "아세안에서 새로 인터넷에 접속하는 인구가 매일 12만4000명씩 늘어나고 있다"며

"아세안의 인터넷 시장은 세계에서 가장 빠른 속도로 발전하고 있다"고 지적했다. 이 같은 추세는 적어도 향후 5년간 지속될 것으로 그는 전망했다. 청년층이 늘어나고 인터넷 인구가 확산되면 아세안은 4차 산업혁명의 유력 주자로 부상할 것이라는 전망이다. 다만 아세안 국가의 성장을 지속 가능하게 만들고 사회 전체적으로 소외계층을 포용하는 방향으로 전개돼야 한다고 지적했다. 우드는 "미래의 밝은 전망이 성공을 보장하는 것은 아니다"며

"아세안 다보스포럼은 아세안의 잠재력을 극대화하고 현실화할 수 있는 방안을 모색하기 위해 기획됐다"고 강조했다.

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이번 WEF 아세안포럼은 4차 산업혁명을 비롯해 아세안 지역의 소비, 디지털 경제, 포용적 성장, 국제 무역, 교육, 환경과 자원, 농업, 건강 등을 주제로 한 50여 개의 세션이 3일간 개최된다. 이번 포럼에는 훈 센 캄보디아 총리, 통룬 시술리트 라오스 총리, 로드리고 두테르테 필리핀 대통령, 응우옌쑤언푹 베트남 총리 등 아세안 지역 정상들을 비롯해 관계 부처 장관들이 대거 참석한다.

경제 분야에서는 진뤼친 아시아인프라개발은행(AIIB) 총재 등을 비롯해 존 라이스 GE그룹 부회장, 나지르 라작 말레이시아 CIMB그룹 회장, 브라이언 웡 알리바바그룹 부회장 등이 참석한다. 한국에서는 길정우 카이스트 교수, 이주성 세아제강 전무 등이 참석한다. 이번 포럼은 1967년 동남아시아 10개국이 모여 이 지역 정치·경제·문화 공동체인 아세안을 결성한 지 50주년을 기념하기 위해 특별히 마련됐다. 아세안은 미국 중국 일본 독일 프랑스 영국에 이어 세계에서 7번째로 큰 경제권을 형성하고 있다

[주요 기관 동향 정보]

1. [World Economic Forum] World Economic Forum on ASEAN 2017 - 원문 링크: https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-on-asean-2017

2. [산업통상자원부] RCEP 18차 공식협상(5.8~12, 필리핀 마닐라) 개최 - 산업통상자원부 홈페이지(http://www.motie.go.kr) > 보도/해명 > 해당 보도문

[주요 이슈 분석]

(AMRO) 아세안+3 거시경제연구소 거시경제 전망 보고서 「ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2017」 발간

- 원문 링크: http://www.amro-asia.org/asean3-regional-economic-outlook-areo-2017/

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