Daily Report for Sunday, September 18, 2016
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Report for
Sunday,
September 18, 2016 Shahrivar 28, 1395
Highlights, Page 2 News Briefs, Page 3 Other Stories, Page 3
Why Iran welcomes US-Russian deal on Syria, Page 5
Daily Report for Sunday, September 18, 2016
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Despite speculation that Russia’s dealings with the United States might be at the expense of Iran, it appears that Tehran has plenty of reasons to welcome
Moscow and Washington’s agreement on Syria. (See Page 5)
Daily Report for Sunday, September 18, 2016
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News Briefs
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that police have arrested five persons who posed as police officers and stole foreign currencies from foreign tourists.
* Basij News website reports that two Fatimiyoun Brigade Afghan fighters killed in Syria were buried in Yazd.
* Aftab News website reports that Abadan police have a young man who tried to smuggle 68 kilos of hashish into Abadan city.
* Aftab News website reports that Hormuzgan Province police have said that they confiscated two motorcycles in which 161 kilos of opium were hidden.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that police have warned that they will confront with what it called
„underground‟ dubbing studios for computer games. [Some games are dubbed in Farsi even though the games have not obtained distribution permit from relevant Iranian authorities.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that Kerman Province police have disbanded a five-member gang specialized in smuggling of weapons.
The gang was smuggling weapons from Iran‟s “western provinces” for use in Kerman Province.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that two persons died after a Peugeot car was overturned in Eshtehard, Karaj Province. The vehicle had four occupants.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that two persons died on Hamedan- Malayer Expressway after a car was overturned due to excessive speeding.
Other stories
Soleimani warns Iranians that
enemy has “the goal of sowing discord”
Ebtekar newspaper reports that IRGC Quds Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani released a statement criticizing “the enemy‟s divisive comments”.
Soleimani asked for Iranians to ignore “the enemy‟s remarks, which are made with the goal of sowing discord and creating confrontation.”
Soleimani also appeared to deny that he will be entering politics. He vowed in his statement that he will remain
“a soldier until the end of my life, God willing.”
Soleimani recently reignited speculation that he will be entering politics when he criticized the Bahraini government for stripping the citizenship of leading Shia cleric Sheikh Isa Qassim.
Rumors that Soleimani was interested in entering politics also arose after the Quds Force Commander met with a group of pro-Larijani parliamentarians in late May.
Compliance with the FATF regulations is an affront to Iran’s sovereignty
Leading hard-line conservative newspaper Kayhan writes that the ongoing controversy over Iran‟s compliance with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) regulations is “more important than preventing the financial transactions of the IRGC or the Ministry of Defense.”
It claims that Iran‟s compliance with the regulations “are a step down a road that leads to us losing our independence.”
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Cleric hits at
government spokesperson
Basij News hard-line website reports that Reza Taghavi, the head of the Friday Prayer Leader Policymaking Council, pushed back against recent comments from Rouhani Administration Spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht.
Nokhbat had criticized Friday Prayer leaders for their objections to the proposed FATF regulations.
Taghavi noted that the Rouhani administration has no authority to coordinate or recommend topics for Friday prayer speeches.
Officials debate “manipulated”
economic statistics
Shargh reformist newspaper reports that Kazem Jalali, the moderate-conservative head of the Parliament Research Center, criticized the Statistical Center of Iran‟s work during a televised debate with the Statistical Center‟s head, Omid Ali Parsa.
The two institutions released differing statistics on the growth of the Iranian economy last year.
Jalali accused the Statistical Center of publishing false statistics, stating,
“Sometimes statistics are incorrect, and sometimes there have been manipulation and interference in them. Professional
institutions do not accept the Statistical Center‟s statistics.”
Parsa denied that his center received an order to “manipulate the statistics”.
Jalali also criticized the “politicization” of statistics and referred to the differing statistics given by the Statistical Center, the Rouhani administration, and the Central Bank of Iran for the year 1391 (2012-2013).
He stated, “No center accepted the statistics of any other center. This must change.”
The debate between Jalali and Parsa follows Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei‟s criticism of differing statistics on September 13 during a meeting with officials from the Statistical Center of Iran and the National Population and Housing Census.
Ayatollah Khamenei criticized erroneous statistical reporting for creating “mistrust among the people.”
He referenced “the labeling of some statistics from previous administrations as incorrect by subsequent administrations”
and stated, “The source of this divergence must be made clear.”
Ayatollah Khamenei was likely referring to accusations by President Hassan Rouhani that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad‟s administration falsified important economic statistics.
Daily Report for Sunday, September 18, 2016
5 Why Iran welcomes US-Russian deal on Syria
Al-Monitor news website. Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas. Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas is a freelance journalist focusing on Iran’s foreign policy and a PhD candidate in North American studies at Tehran University.
Lengthy negotiations between the United States and Russia appear to have finally paid off when they reached a deal on a cease-fire in Syria announced September 10. If the truce — the cessation of all air and ground attacks by all parties for one week — is adhered to by both sides, the United States and Russia plan to subsequently establish a joint implementation center to coordinate intelligence and airstrikes against the Islamic State (IS) and Jabhat al-Nusra.
The interests of Iran, as one of the key players involved in the complex and multi- dimensional conflict in Syria, will certainly be affected by the US-Russian agreement, like those of other actors. Indeed, while Iranian officials have formally welcomed the truce, they have also warned that it should not serve as an opportunity for militants to regroup and transfer fighters and arms.
Al-Monitor spoke with Nasser Hadian, a professor of international relations at Tehran University, about the situation. He said that Iran supports the US-Russian agreement in that it serves humanitarian goals, but the path ahead remains ambiguous. “It is only a temporary cease-fire, and it is unlikely that it will lead to lasting peace or the establishment of a new government in Syria.”
Touching on how possible US-Russian military cooperation could affect Iranian interests in Syria, Hadian said, “If the agreement takes hold, Russia and the United States will form a new military alliance against IS and Jabhat al-Nusra. Fighting these two groups is an Iranian goal too. So if the agreement is implemented, it will not harm Iran‟s interests.” He cautioned, however, “Discord might emerge in the next steps.”
Given Tehran‟s growing cooperation with Moscow, it appears that Iran increasingly sees itself as Russia‟s strategic partner in the Middle East. Take for instance, Iran for the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution allowing another country, Russia, to conduct military operations from one of its air bases. Thus, there is therefore also the question of how potential US-Russian military cooperation might impact the Iranian- Russian alliance in Syria.
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Mohammad Jamshidi, a professor of international relations and an expert on US foreign policy at Tehran University, told Al-Monitor, “I see the alliance between Iran and Russia as strategic, and the various forms of military cooperation between the two countries in recent years confirms this. But the agreement between the United States and Russia is a kind of tactical coordination. The strategic goals of Russia and the United States in Syria are at odds with each other.”
Jamshidi added, “I believe that Russia did not deal with the United States at the expense of Iran‟s interests. Actually, the United States always seeks cease-fire agreements when pro-Syrian government forces achieve considerable victories on the battlefield. It uses these kinds of agreements as a tool to buy time in order to regroup armed groups, and Russia knows this.”
Nonetheless, Jamshidi does not believe the US-Russian deal can be considered detrimental to either Russia or its allies, including Iran. “The interesting point is that Russia, in comparison to the United States, makes strategic use of this agreement,” he said. Russia is buying time, too, he added.
“The Russians are denying the Obama administration the time needed for taking any decisive decision in Syria,” Jamshidi said. “I mean it‟s obvious that the Obama administration will not have any more time to arm the opposition groups when the cease-fire period ends.”
Elahe Koolaie, a professor of international relations at Tehran University and a Russia expert, sees the US-Russian agreement as demonstrating the Russians‟ ability to advance their goals. “There are different overlapping interests and threats in Syria, and all of the involved players should use the opportunity to cooperate with each other,”
Koolaie told Al-Monitor. “The agreement between Russia and the United States has a good possibility of reducing Iran‟s security threats too.”
Iran has stood by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the civil war erupted in 2011. It has done so based on the belief that Assad‟s continued rule is tied to Iran‟s regional security interests. One of these interests is maintaining the so-called Axis of Resistance. To achieve this objective, Iran has also for years supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, including paying a financial and political price for doing so. Considering Syria‟s physical and geopolitical position in regard to Israel, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey, it has a key role in maintaining the Axis of Resistance. Hence, Iran‟s prioritization of keeping Assad in power. Indeed, Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign
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policy adviser to Iran‟s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly stated that keeping Assad in power is an Iranian red line in Syria.
In this vein, Tehran-based Syria expert Amin Parto told Al-Monitor, “Iran‟s interests in Syria will be guaranteed only if Bashar al-Assad maintains his power. The same thing is true about Russia. So, in the short term, and as long as there is no word about political transition, the agreement is aligned with Iran‟s interests, as it presents a good opportunity for pro-Syrian government forces to revitalize themselves. But in the long run, it is at odds with Iran‟s defined interests because opposition groups and the United States will not accept any arrangement that does not include shifting [away from] the Baathist-Alawite [political] system in Syria.”
Al-Monitor also spoke with Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, in Washington. “It is high time for Iran to look for ways to soften its support for Assad,” he said. “Iran‟s long-held „Assad or nothing‟ approach is highly unlikely to win in the end in Syria if a political solution is ever to be found. The Russians know that, the Turks know that, and Iran can keep itself relevant among key external players by recognizing this inevitable fact.”
Vatanka further emphasized, “In the end, Iran owes Assad nothing. For both moral reasons and for the sake of its long-term geopolitical interests, Tehran needs to show more flexibility. The more this war drags on, the less the likelihood that Syria as one state can be kept together, which Tehran says is its number one priority.”
Mindful of Iran‟s stated position on the US-Russian deal, Vatanka added, “Iran has no option but to support this latest cease-fire. Any cease-fire that halts the madness of violence in Syria — however limited — must be seized. But this cease-fire alone will not end the war but might be a step that can be built on for a broader peace effort.”
