Daily Report for Wednesday, December 14, 2016
1
Report for
Wednesday,
December 14, 2016 Azar 24, 1395
Highlights, Page 2 News Briefs, Page 3 Other Stories, Page 3
Will Iran up its enrichment in reaction to US extension of ISA? Page 5 Why Trump should cooperate with the Iran-Russia coalition. Page 7
Daily Report for Wednesday, December 14, 2016
2 Highlights
As a reaction to the recent bill by the US Senate to extend Iran Sanctions Act (ISA), Iranian President has called for working on certain nuclear propulsion devices that are said to require a nuclear enrichment level way beyond the limits set by JCPOA, the text of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers. (See Page 5)
Some speculate that the president-elect will want to cooperate with Russia in the form of a joint military operation against IS and also initiate direct peace talks in Syria, trying to separate Russia from Iran and isolate Tehran in the regional equations. (See Page 5)
Daily Report for Wednesday, December 14, 2016
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News Briefs
* Etemad newspaper quotes conservative Ahmad Tavakoli reacting to continuing news about financial corruption in Iran. He has reportedly said, “What can topple the [Islamic Republic] system, is corruption.”
* Etemad newspaper reports that advisor to Drug Control Headquarters Hamid Sarami says that ‘our’ research shows that 58% of the drug addicts in Iran are below the age of 34.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that Abadan police have arrested 54 young boys and girls during a raid on a night party.
* Aftab News website reports that Tehran police have arrested more than 30 young men and women at a night party in a restaurant. The arrested were aged between 18 to 25.
* Mardom Salari newspaper reports that responding to reporters’ questions about the heavy traffic in Tehran city in the last few days, Tehran traffic police chief Mohammadreza Mahmandar said that the heavy traffic is due to lack of organization in Tehran, different exhibitions, spiraling number of cars on the street, and bad driving among other things.
* Etemad newspaper reports that three persons have died in Kermanshah due to carbon monoxide poisoning at a tiles manufacturing workshop.
* Aftab News website reports that three persons have died and one person injured in various car accidents across Iran.
Other stories
Rouhani orders AEOI to begin
“planning” development of nuclear-powered ships
State-owned newspaper Iran reports that President Hassan Rouhani ordered the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) to begin “planning the design and development of nuclear propulsion for use in the field of maritime transportation” in a directive sent to AEOI Head Ali Akbar Salehi.
Rouhani also ordered Salehi to begin “the research and design of fuel production for use in [nuclear]
propulsion.” Rouhani gave Salehi three months to create a plan to implement the directive.
Rouhani issued the directive in response to Congress’s renewal of the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) and America’s alleged “delay” in implementing the nuclear deal.
Rouhani and other senior officials falsely criticize the ISA’s renewal as a violation of the nuclear agreement.
Rouhani specified in his letter to Salehi that the AEOI must carry out its mission “within the framework of [Iran’s] international commitments,” however.
In a separate letter, Rouhani called for Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to pursue “international and legal measures” to address America’s alleged
“violations” under the nuclear agreement.
Rouhani ordered Zarif to provide a report on the Foreign Ministry’s progress in one month.
Daily Report for Wednesday, December 14, 2016
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Iran and South Africa sign defense agreement
Hamshahri newspaper reports that Defense Minister IRGC Brig. Gen.
Hossein Dehghan and South Africa’s Minister of Defense and Military Veterans Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula signed an MoU during Dehghan’s visit to Pretoria on December 13.
The MoU is aimed at “strengthening regional and global peace, stability, security, and the fight against terrorism” as well as “cooperation in the field of maritime security.”
The Artesh Navy 44th Fleet recently visited a port in South Africa during its trip along the African coast and reportedly into the Atlantic.
In military-related news, Artesh Ground Forces unveil two new drones on final day of drills.
The Artesh Ground Forces unveiled a new combat drone named the Shahin and a reconnaissance drone named the Oqab on the third and final day of the Mohammad Rasoul Allah 4 exercises in southeastern Iran.
Iranian casualty in Syria
Basij News website reports that an IRGC member killed in Palmyra.
IRGC Capt. Ahmad Jalali Nasab was reportedly killed in Palmyra, Syria, on December 12.
He was a member of the IRGC Ali Ibn Abu Taleb unit based in Qom province.
Special tour of Tehran for blind people
A program is underway in Iran’s capital in which people can share their experiences of visiting Tehran’s tourist attractions with the blind through voice messages.
Rajabali Khosroabadi, the Director General of Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization of Tehran Province, announced that the program of
“Tourism with the Voice of Kindness”, a plan for encouraging the blind to discover Tehran’s historical and cultural attractions, has started in late September and will continue until the National Day of Cultural Heritage in May 2017.
“It is a civil right to benefit from tourist attractions. No one should be deprived of it because of his disability,” he noted.
“By sending their voice messages about Tehran’s tourist attractions, the tour leaders, as well as students and graduates of tourism-related fields, can take part in the program,” he added, noting that some prizes are considered for the 10 best voice messages as selected by the blind.
According to Khosroabadi, the first page of a tourism manual in braille is to be unveiled during in a tourism conference in Allameh Tabataba’i University campus.
Daily Report for Wednesday, December 14, 2016
5 Will Iran up its enrichment in reaction to
US extension of Iran Sanctions Act?
President Rouhani has ordered the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) to plan work on nuclear propulsion devices to be used in sea transport in response to the recent violation of a multilateral nuclear deal by the United States.
Entekhab news website has claimed in a Farsi report that, according to nuclear experts, the fuel needed for such propulsion devices would require an enrichment level of up to 50%.
It is not yet clear whether such claims are true or not, but will Iran really increase the level of its uranium enrichment in reaction to the US extension of ISA? Or is it just a threat to discourage the US administration from implementing what Iran says is a clear violation of JCPOA?
It seems that we should wait and see.
In the directive issued to the head of the AEOI on Tuesday, President Rouhani demanded that the organization draw appropriate plans to design and manufacture nuclear propulsion devices as well as the fuel required for them.
He instructed Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the AEOI, to report back to him on the issue within a maximum period of three months.
The president said the measures were warranted in light of the United States’ foot- dragging in fulfilling its commitments under the multilateral nuclear deal — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — and the recent ratification of anti-Iran legislation in the US Congress known as the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA).
President Rouhani said Iran had warned that the approval of the ISA would amount to a breach of the JCPOA, Press TV reported.
He said the directives were now being given in implementation of the decisions made by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the committee tasked with monitoring the implementation of the JCPOA.
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In a separate directive issued to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, President Rouhani instructed Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to take action to follow up on the US violations of the JCPOA as per the provisions of the deal and to take other legal and international measures necessary in that regard.
The JCPOA involves a total of seven sides, namely Iran, the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. It was reached in July 2015. The deal stipulates that nuclear-related sanctions against Iran be terminated and no such sanctions be imposed as long as Iran meets its side of the bargain, including certain limits to its nuclear program.
However, the US Congress recently reauthorized the ISA, extending the US president’s authority to potentially impose sanctions on US entities that do business with Iran.
The ISA awaits US President Barack Obama’s signature to turn into law. The White House has signaled that it will sign the ISA but will “waive” nuclear-related sanctions against Iran. Even so, Iranian officials have complained, the JCPOA has been breached as a result of the Congress’ renewal of the ISA.
Iran had warned it would take reciprocal action if the ISA was approved. The Islamic Republic has written a letter of complaint to the United Nations over the vote on the legislation at the US Congress.
Daily Report for Wednesday, December 14, 2016
7 Why Trump should cooperate with the
Iran-Russia coalition to defeat IS
Iran Review news website. Kayhan Barzegar. Kayhan Barzegar, a political scientist and international affairs expert, is currently the director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran and a former research fellow at Harvard University. He also chairs the department of International Relations at the Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch. His latest book, Iran’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East after the Arab Spring, was published in 2015.
President-elect Donald Trump has announced that defeating the Islamic State (IS) group would be one of his foreign policy priorities in the Middle East.
In order to achieve this goal, he said that he would cooperate with Russia. He has also said that the nuclear deal (JCPOA) has strengthened Iran in the region and that the US should follow policies that can check its strength.
How would Trump’s apparent policy plans impact the current Iran-Russia coalition and, consequently, the fight against IS, and peace in Syria?
Some speculate that the president-elect will want to cooperate with Russia in the form of a joint military operation against IS and also initiate direct peace talks in Syria, trying to separate Russia from Iran and isolate Tehran in the regional equations.
But such a policy would neither defeat IS nor provide sustainable regional peace because the current Iranian-Russian coalition is based on both countries’ mutual needs to both defeat IS and find a political solution in Syria.
Sow division between the two, and the motivation they have to work together will be lost.
Common interests
Iran and Russia are determined to defeat IS in the Levant. As the main source of extremism in neighboring Central Asia, the Caucuses and Afghanistan, the group is an imminent national security threat for both countries. The spread of terrorism would have major consequences for Iranian and Russian economic, energy and tourism activities.
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In Syria, Iran and Russia regard their coalition as crucial for preserving their political and military strength in Syria and accelerating the potential for a political solution to the crisis.
From their perspective, the current fights of rival anti-IS coalitions run by the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are all aimed at weakening the position of the Syrian government and influencing the country’s political transformation at the expense of Iran and Russia.
How it works
Based on this mutual need, and in the course of the crisis, the Iran-Russia coalition has strengthened, adjusting for both countries’ national and security interests. First, they have learned that benefiting from their common potentials will add to their strength in the regional political and field equations.
For example, the Russians know very well that their fight against the terrorist groups in Syria will be unsuccessful without engaging ground forces led by Iran. Iran also knows well that managing the battlefield without the Russian air supports will be very hard.
Second, they have learned how to equate and adjust these potentials to fulfil their common interests. In this regard, while the two countries attempt to support the positions of one another in the Syrian multilateral peace talks, they respect their specific interests and independent approaches in dealing with the Syrian and Iraqi crises. Russia supports Iran’s specific interests in Iraq while Iran supports Russia’s interests in Syria, especially in Latakia and Tartus.
Third, they have been able to convince one another to accept a balanced political solution in Syria, even while they may differ on other regional issues. For instance, while keeping its coalition with Iran intact, Russia is trying to adjust its interests with other regional actors including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran is also keeping close relations with Russia while it has continued specific relations with other effective forces such as Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia People’s Mobilization Forces known as al-Hashd al-Sha’abi.
Fourth, they know that only their united presence alongside Assad can give him the necessary confidence to accept the process of political transformation in Syria. The reality is that the Syrian president has also learned to how to keep these two powerful supporters together to preserve his own interests in the crisis.
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Rivals’ attempts fail
In the course of the Syrian crisis and peace talks, the US and regional actors such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia have attempted at times to deal directly with Russia in an effort to balance their regional interests. Iran could successfully convince Russia to take Iran’s side in Syria and, therefore, perceives any division in this respect at its own expense.
For instance, Tehran is against engaging the so-called moderate oppositions in Syria, perceiving them as terrorist group supported by regional rivals such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but Moscow is in favor of a modest engagement with them, keeping the channel of peace negotiations more open.
But on several occasions the US tried to get to a deal with Russia on a ceasefire in Aleppo which failed. Turkey has recently tried to secretly lead negotiations between Russia and the so-called moderate oppositions in Ankara. Saudi Arabia also tried to move Russia away from Iran through different means such as offering energy cooperation and buying weapons from Moscow.
Yet none of these efforts have been successful so far as Iran and Russia understand that their geopolitical interests will be better preserved through increased cooperation in Syria.
So far the Iranian-Russia coalition for its part has played a significant role in tackling IS and other terrorists groups in Syria, which has brought about positive results in defeating IS in Iraqi cities and currently in Mosul.
Such cooperation has also changed the approach of fighting against terrorists and conducting peace talks based on multilateralism in the region, which one can argue is the only way to achieve sustainable peace.
In such circumstances, Trump’s policy of prioritizing the defeat of IS, as well as bringing about peace in Syria through cooperation with Russia could be a positive development, provided that he would consider cooperating with a strengthening Iran- Russian coalition, as the simultaneous participation of these two key actors would be necessary to guarantee the success of any peace talks in the region.
