Iran Politics Report July 30, 2018
(The sentences in Italics are not the researcher’s personal ideas)
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s remarks on the closure of Hormuz Strait in response to US threats regarding the imposition of a total blockade over Iran’s oil export, created frenzy in international politics. While everyone was busy measuring the feasibility of Iranian President’s claim, and making war scenarios, Rouhani fueled the already blazing fire.
Here’s DW’s news piece on the issue:
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned the United States on Sunday that it could shut down international oil shipments in the strategic Strait of Hormuz if Washington continued to provoke Tehran.
"We have always guaranteed the security of this strait," Rouhani told diplomats in the Iranian capital. "Do not play with the lion's tail; you will regret it forever."
The Iranian president, considered a moderate, has previously threatened to close the strait in response to US President Donald Trump's threat to stop Iranian oil exports through the waterway. The strait is one of the world's most important maritime trade routes and connects the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
But it was the “don’t play with the lion’s tail” part that dropped the bombshell. During the same event, Rouhani boasted that the Strait of Hormuz is not the only strait we have control over; there are other straits as well. With an optimistic view, Rouhani’s “other straits” remarks could be perceived as Rouhani’s effort to indirectly refer to other areas in the region where Iran has the upper hand and could exert pressure on the US by pushing ahead with its own agenda. I personally had more tendency to believe that interpretation to be closer to truth.
After some digging in into the issue, I find the following analysis to be the more credible alternative on the interpretation of Rouhani’s “other straits” remark:
Here’s an excerpt from our “Iran Politics Report 07-23-2018” which focused on the conservative Vatan Emrouz Newspaper’s comment on Rouhani remarks:
Iran’s conservative Vatan Emrouz headlined “Iran, the Lord of Straits” in his Monday morning edition! Here’s how it begins the article:
Now that the government’s American dream has faded away, it seems that there are glimpses of glory in Rouhani’s remarks and stance against the US. On November 4, United States’
secondary sanctions will be implemented, blocking banking transactions and oil exports. White House officials have taken necessary steps to put an embargo on Iran’s oil industry. Some OPEC countries have agreed to increase their production to a total number of 1 million barrels per day to make up for Iran’s absence. Rouhani government which deems itself responsible for the current situation is after convincing Europe to refrain from entering Iran’s oil embargo game.
Contrary to his stance 5 years ago, Rouhani is now threatening to disrupt oil export from the Middle East region. Following his remarks in Switzerland over two weeks ago, Rouhani has now explicitly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran possesses other straits as well and can use its control of these straits to block tankers’ passage through them.
The oil produced in the West Asia region (Middle East) is transported through three passages;
the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Persian Gulf to the Oman Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait that connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal that is a link between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
Vatan Emrouz reports that Iran has great control over all the three passages of oil transits from the Middle East. More specifically, Iran maintains the security of all these passages and in case Iran would intend to refrain from doing so, the oil transit through these passages would be disrupted.
Of course it would be too much to expect Iranian news media to cover all aspects of a controversial issue like this one. With a more critical look at the developments leading up to the current level of tensions, we would like to shed light on Iran and Saudi Arabia’s strategic hostile rivalry in the region.
The closure of Hormuz Strait was first brought up during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Presidency which led to a heavy US military forces build up in the Persian Gulf. Following the exchange of harsh rhetoric, the sides finally decided to ease up and avoid war.
That was when Arabs felt the urgency of coming up with contingency plans to ensure their oil exports after possible closure of Hormuz Strait. What they did was building an oil pipe line and a terminal in Oman, east of Hormuz Strait so that in case Iran manages to close it, their oil would still flow in those pipes and ensure the flow of oil money in return. In return Iran didn’t stand still and built its greatest missile site in Jask port precisely in front of that oil terminal in Oman to
let Arabs know that they won’t be able to export oil even at times of emergency.
The green spot in Oman is the oil terminal and the arrow leads to Jask in Iran where the massive missile site is situated.
With that alternative off the table, Arabs decided to resort to the Red Sea which stretches from Saudi Arabia’s southwest to its west and northwest. There, they quickly built oil export-specific ports so that Iran could not lay its hands on them from far away, but there was one glitch; the
Red Sea leads to two straits on its both ends. In the north near its entrance to the Mediterranean Sea it has the Suez Canal and on its southern end, it leads to Bab-el Mandeb strait that is Red Sea’s gate to the Indian Ocean. Saudi ships have to pass through the Suez Canal to export oil to the American continent and Europe. To export oil to India,China and the Far East, they have to sail through Bab-el Mandeb.
By extending their pipelines (blue lines) to red spots, where the new oil export ports are situated, Arabs are ready to export oil through Red Sea. Path 1 goes through Bab-el Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden and leads to the Indian Ocean. Path number 2 goes through Suez Canal and enters the Mediterranean Sea and the Gibraltar Strait so that the oil is exported to Western Europe and the US.
Now the question is, what did Iran do in return? They went after Egypt and convinced former president Morsi to ban Saudi Ships’ passage through the Suez Canal. That was when Arabs, hand in hand with the US, striped Morsi out of power and instated a military government supportive of Saudi Arabia. They poured oil money on Suez Canal and made great constructional developments in the Canal making it appropriate for large cargo ships to pass through. They also added another channel.
Iran was simply defeated upon implementing its plan, but the more important strait is Bab-el Mandab at the entrance of the Gulf of Aden. Most of the Middle East’s oil export goes to the Far
East and if Arabs wouldn’t be able to send their ships to the strait, they would have to circumvent the whole African Continent to get the consumers.
Let’s zoom in a bit:
And here’s the rout, tankers have to sail on to get to the Far East:
So in order to maintain a steady oil export with Arabs who stretched pipelines from the eastern side of their country to the west, the openness of Bab-el Mandeb Strait is of the essence.
Yemen in the north and Djibouti in the south are this strait’s neighbors. During Ahmadinejad’s time in office, Iran tried its best to win Djibouti’s favor by building hospitals and schools as well as the country’s current parliament building. Many trips were taken to the country, but eventually all the efforts were evaporated into thin air by the injection of Saudi petro dollars into Djibouti, so in result, Iran was kicked out of the country. The move was mocked by Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, the Rouhani administration Spokesman, who tried to show calmness in response and mocked Djibouti by Saying, the “expansive country of Djibouti has severed tied,”; and ironic remark to a country which is considered a tiny in size, but of course strategically important when it comes to its geopolitical position.
Desperate of its failed attempts, Iran resorted to Houthis in Yemen who had been holding a grudge against their government for a long time. A coup was planned to turn the government into a Shia majority one, so that they can take over the control of the strategic strait. That was when Saudi Arabia decided to unleash its brutal power and invaded Yemen, taking control over all the country’s borders with the Strait. The green intermitting lines is the area taken back by Saudi Arabia , which resulted in Iran and Houthis’ lost control over Bab-el Mandeb.
The Yemen- Saudi war is all because of the control over the Strait of Bab-el Mandeb. Houthis keep attacking to reach a proper distance with the Strait and control the area by low precision Iranian missiles and light artillery, but Arabs don’t let that happen with American air support.
That is Yemen war explained in a nutshell.
Iran, who came to the understanding that assuming control over this part of the world is not as easy as thought, decided to take its chance somewhere Arabs wouldn’t guess. The hard to guess place is Morocco.
The Gibraltar Strait is the Mediterranean Sea’s gate to the Atlantic Ocean and Morocco is situated south of the Strait. Iran tried to arm and fund the Polisario rebels in Morocco so that it can turn them into its own mercenaries and impede oil tanker transit through the Strait by terrorist operations. That is exactly the reason why a few days prior to the beginning of the 2018 Russia World Cup, Morocco severed diplomatic ties with Iran.
The Moroccan foreign minister said earlier on May 1, that Iran and its Lebanese Shi’ite ally, Hezbollah, were supporting Polisario by training and arming its fighters, via the Iranian embassy in Algeria.
“Hezbollah sent military officials to Polisario and provided the front with ... weapons and trained them on urban warfare,” Bourita said.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are on the verge of a direct confrontation over the export of oil. If a war breaks out it plagues the region as both countries have sought to take over control in different parts of the region.
